NFL Betting Odds: Week 5 Line Movements and Last-Minute News
Two Thursday night thrillers in a row? The NFL is on fire right now.
From a neutral perspective, Thursday night's game had everything you could ask for and more in terms of drama and relevance to the bigger picture of the NFC standings. From a betting perspective, I hope you were able to sleep and are doing okay today. Depending on when you bet the game and what number you got, you were either really happy with a Seahawks one-point win or crushed they couldn't cover the -1.5 spread.
If this week's NFL action is half as good as the Thursday night game, we are going to be in for a treat. Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 5.
New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins +15.5, 42.5 : Let's make one thing very clear as we delve into the biggest line movements for Week 5 of the NFL. I'm in no rush to bet on Washington, and I believe that you are better off passing on this game than taking the points with Washington. We expect this to be the last we see of Jay Gruden on the sidelines for the Redskins after they lose outright to the Patriots. From a point spread perspective, we liked the Patriots on the opening line of -13.5. That spread was under a secondary key number of 14, and we do believe the Patriots could have in fact covered the spread (barely ). At the current NFL odds of -15.5 to -16, depending on where you look, we feel as if the number is extremely inflated. Washington doesn't exactly strike fear in their opponents' eyes, so one way to bet this game would be the "under' as it's dipped from an opening 47.5 all the way down to 42.5. The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the league. And with Dwayne Haskins likely getting the start for the Skins', the onus will be on the Patriots to score plenty of points to push this number over the total.
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs -11, 56: This game opened up at Chiefs -8.5 and has been bet up to well over the key number of 10, and it currently sits right at 11. The total has also moved up a bit from 54 to 56, and we really can't see a way the total stays under the posted line. Both of these teams are brutal defensively. And with the Chiefs giving up a 30 spot to Detroit on the road and Indy giving up 31 at home to Oakland, it should come as no surprise to see the total has high as it is. From a side perspective, the Colts may be without T.Y Hilton and possible Darius Leonard, which will only hinder their chances in this football game. The Chiefs are relatively healthy, for the most part, and we expect Mahomes to come out slinging, as he tossed the rock for 315 yards but had zero touchdown passes last week. This game figures to be extremely lopsided, so we'll take the Chiefs in this one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints -3.5, 46.5: Football is a game of "what have you done for me lately". For both of these teams, the answer to that question is "win outright as underdogs". Tampa went into LA and walked out with a 55-40 victory over the Rams as 10-point underdogs, while the Saints held their own at home against the Cowboys, winning 12-10 as two-point dogs. This line opened up at 6.5 but has been bet down to three and a half, likely thanks to the way these two teams produced offensively. Winston looked unstoppable, while Bridgewater struggled, and the Saints needed four field goals to barely scrape by the Cowboys. The total has also taken a bit of a knock, dropping from 47.5 to 46.5. It's hard to imagine the Bucs putting up another 55-spot this week on the Saints, but you'd be inclined to take the points with the more explosive offense. The Saints will likely be forced to win this game through the air as the Bucs have a decent run defense, so it'll be on Bridgewater's shoulders to produce and keep pace with the Bucs offense.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans -3, 38.5: And lastly, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of the NFL go toe-to-toe in Music City to determine which team we can trust moving forward. For the Bills, they have an amazing defense and nearly upset the Patriots last week at home. If only they had an offense that has some semblance of consistency instead of turning the ball over four times throughout the game. As for the Titans, one week the defense shows up in a big way while the offense goes M.I.A, and other weeks the offense looks unstoppable while the defense takes a break and costs them the game. The news of Matt Barkley likely starting for the Bills has pushed this spread up from the opening line of -1 to -3 for the Titans, and this is by far the lowest total on the board at 38.5. It wouldn't shock me to see a 13-10 type of football game where both teams turn the ball over a bunch of times, and neither really knows how to play competent on offense.
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