Interesting NFL Season Betting Props with Expert Wagering Predictions
We are at the point where we have broken the upcoming NFL season down so many ways from so many angles that we are going a little cross-eyed. We just need the games to start. But we can't rest until we've done it all. And pretty much the last numbers we haven't looked at yet are these last few fun prop bets. So, let's look at them, shall we?
Most wins by any team - "Over/Under" 13.5: The under is a deserving favorite here - it is at -130, compared to +100 for the over. During the last five seasons, we have seen just two teams go over this number - the 2016 Patriots won 14 games, and the Panthers won 15 the prior year. Anything is possible, but the NFC is so deep that it will be tough to win a ton of games, and in the AFC the Chiefs and Chargers have to play each other twice, and the Patriots don't feel quite as likely to focus on dominating the regular season as they have at times. No value in the over here.
Most losses by any team - over/under 13.5: On the surface, it would be tempting to take the over here because there are some really lousy teams in the league right now - the Bengals, Redskins and Giants are all a mess, and the Dolphins are working hard to get into that group as well. And during the last five years, this number has been more achievable than getting this many wins has been. No team went over last year, but the Browns did it in 2017 with no wins, and in 2016 with one, the Niners had two wins in 2016, and the Titans and Bucs both had two wins in 2015. So, it has happened, on average, once per year. That doesn't justify betting the over at -150 here, but it doesn't make the under at +120 massively attractive, either.
QB touchdown matchup - Baker Mayfield (-6) vs. Giants: Both sides here are at -120. Last year Mayfield threw 90 fewer passes than Eli Manning did, and he threw six more touchdowns - 27 to 21. Now Mayfield has Manning's best receiver to throw to, and he is going to throw many more passes than he did last year. Manning is done, and Daniel Jones isn't ready, and neither guy has adequate targets to throw to. New York's offense is basically going to be to give the ball to Saquon Barkley and hope he doesn't die. Mayfield is in very good shape in this matchup.
Which city's teams will have most combined wins: L.A. is at -1000, while New York is at +500. If you have to think about this one for even a second, then you aren't as smart as I think you are. It would be a much more interesting challenge to figure out if the two New York teams combined can win as many games as either of the L.A. teams do alone. I think I'd still go West Coast on that one.
Most passing yards - o/u 5100: Last year Roethlisberger went over this number by just 29 yards, and Patrick Mahomes fell three yards short. While I am reasonably optimistic about the seasons both guys will have, I don't expect either to match their seasons from last year. Matt Ryan was 76 yards short, and I am bearish about his season as well. And I just don't see who else is stepping up to pass them. Remember, in 2017 Tom Brady led the way with just 4,577 yards, so last year was not necessarily the norm. Both the under and over are at -115. As much as it is a passing league right now, the under feels like the better play.
Most receiving yards - o/u 1600: Both sides are at -115. In 2017, Antonio Brown was tops at 1,533 yards - albeit in just 14 games. Last year, Julio Jones had 1,677 yards - a number I don't expect him to match in Atlanta - and he was the only one over this number. In 2016, T.Y. Hilton led the way with just 1,448 yards. So, during the last three years just one guy has gone over this number. And Jones isn't likely to have his best year as Atlanta will be looking for more offensive balance, Hilton is likely to miss Luck, and Brown is very hard to trust in Oakland. I like the under here quite comfortably.
Most rushing yards - o/u 1525: Again, both sides are at -115 here. This number is just too high. During the last four years, the only guy to go over this number is Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 with 1,631. They haven't come close to this number the last two years. Elliott should be back this year, but he will have some rust to shake off early on. Saquon Barkley could have a big number, but his health has to be in question given the workload he will face. And Joe Mixon faces the same issue - having to be the biggest part of the offense while running behind a very questionable line. I like the under here as well.
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