NFL Wild Card Betting Advice: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Props Predictions
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans, NRG Stadium, 4:35 p.m. EST. Jan 5, 2019.
This game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans will be the third meeting of the season between these two AFC South rivals. In the first game (Week 4), the Texans got their first win of the season after the Colts decided to go for it on fourth-and-four from their own 43-yard line in overtime. The gamble didn't pay off, and the Texans got their first of nine straight wins. Their next loss would come in Week 14 against the same Colts team. This time, the Colts got out to a 24-14 lead and held on for the win, which started their current four-game winning streak, which was good enough to get them into the postseason as the No. 6 seed.
Make no mistakes about it, these teams are no strangers to one another, and it seems like every meeting is decided by a touchdown or less and the result comes to be because of one costly mistake or turnover.
As of writing this, the Houston Texans are favorite by two points and the total is set at 47.5. Based on what we've seen from these two teams over the last month or so of the regular season, I believe the total is spot on, although I would side with the under. As for the spread, I like what Andrew Luck is doing and I believe this is just another game that will prove to the world that Luck is in fact back to 100 percent health.
Instead of focusing on the point spread, I have keyed a few prop bets I expect to hit and make us some money.
All lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction
Team Total Points
Houston Texans - "Over" 24.5 -118, "Under" 24.5, -118
The Houston Texans have hit the 25-point mark only twice in their last four games. That was against a terrible Jets defense and an Eagles team that turned the ball over three times en route to giving up 30 points. Against the Colts, outside of the first meeting, which went to overtime, the Texans looked a step slow and flustered in their most recent meetings. The Texans will rely on Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins to make plays through the air, but we like the Colts secondary and what they are capable when they are playing their best game. The Texans run game, while ranked eighth in the NFL, will have a hard time getting anything going against the Colts and their eighth-ranked run defense. This could be the kind of game where the Colts keep possession away from Houston in an attempt to silence the crowd and keep their playmakers off the field.
Playoff games generally are harder-hitting and space is harder to come by, so that should be the case in this one, especially as these two divisional rivals have a disdain for each other. Take the under in this spot.
Second Half +100
This prop bet is more of a vision bet on how I expect the game to play out.
We all know the quarterbacks of both teams are the driving force behind these offenses. Typically, in a playoff game, teams have a feeling-out process they go through before opening up the playbook and going for the gusto. I believe this game will be no different as both teams will try not to lose the game (make mistakes and turn the ball over) before they hit the locker room for halftime. I've already told you that I believe the total is just about right at 47.5, and I'd take the under. Well in order for that to hit, we will likely have to get a solid defensive performance from both teams in the first half, which would mean around 17-20 points scored. In the second half, as adjustments are made, both teams have enough playmakers to move the ball downfield and put up some points. Take a shot with the second half here and enjoy a nice winner.
Indianapolis Colts to win by 1-5 Points +400.
This last prop is just predicated on the previous two prop bets. We like the under in the game, and we like the Texans to score fewer than 25 points. We do believe the Colts are the better team in this spot and should win the game outright. What the Texans do have going for them is their defense, and we do believe that the likes of Jadeveon Clowney and J.J Watt will be able to contain the Colts offense and limit their offensive production. The first two games between these teams this year were decided by three points, so there is no reason to expect anything different. I could see this game coming down to a last-minute field goal or a defensive stand from the Colts while leading 24-20 or 17-13.
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