Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Prediction, 1/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: NBC

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots (-3.5)

Total-Over-Under: 46

Gillette Stadium is the place where the New England Patriots (14-3) will compete against the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) on Sunday in an AFC Wild Card game. Los Angeles opens this game as 3.5-point dogs from oddsmakers. The total is 46.

The Los Angeles Chargers head into this matchup 11-6 on the campaign. When they last stepped on the football field, the Chargers took the field against the Denver Broncos and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 19-3. Trey Lance finished 20-44 with 136 yds passing. He had a quarterback rate of 43.4 and finished the game with 1 pick. Trey Lance was the rushing leader for the Chargers with 9 totes for 69 yards (7.7 yds per carry). Keenan Allen held an average of 5.1 yds per catch by totaling 36 yards on 7 catches. The Los Angeles Chargers ran the ball 21 times and had 113 yards, which earned them an average of 5.4 yds per carry. In all, they had 65 plays which gave them 217 yds. Los Angeles gave up 14 pass completions on 23 attempts for a total of 124 yards, and a completion percentage of 60.9%. When it came to stopping the run, the Chargers conceded 116 yards on 31 tries, which calculates to 3.7 yds per rush allowed.

In terms of putting points on the board, the Chargers are sitting at 21.6 points per contest. As a team, they are sitting at 121.6 rushing yards putting them 12th in professional football. The Chargers currently have 5,675 total yards so far this year. Los Angeles has racked up 185 first downs, and they have been flagged for 104 infractions for 787 total yards. They have given the ball away 21 different times (14 interceptions and 7 fumbles). If you look at getting in the endzone, Los Angeles has amassed 26 passing touchdowns and 10 TD's via the ground game.

The Chargers are ranking 9th in pro football with reference to the other team scoring points, yielding 20.0 points per outing. The opposition is running for an average of 4.3 yds per tote and 105.4 running yds per outing on the season. If you're looking at pass yds, the Chargers have allowed 3,058 total yards, which ranks 5th in football. They have granted 179.9 total yards per outing by way of the pass, and are granting a completion% of 60.8%. Overall, they are relinquishing 285.2 yds per game, giving them a rank of 5th in pro football. They have yielded 16 touchdowns through the air, along with 16 touchdowns via the rush. Overall, they have yielded 1,791 running yards through 17 matchups so far this year.

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The Patriots head into this matchup 14-3 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Patriots got the victory with a final of 38-10 when they faced the Miami Dolphins. Rhamondre Stevenson ran the ball 7 times for 131 yards, ending the contest with 18.7 yards per attempt for New England. Hunter Henry was featured in the passing game for the Patriots, hauling in 5 throws for 56 yds (11.2 yds per catch). Drake Maye (1 touchdown) walked away from the contest with 191 yds on 14-18 passing while his QB rate was 129.4. He didn't throw any picks and his avg yards per attempt was 10.6 yds. New England gave up 25 rush attempts for 63 yards (2.5 yds per rush). The Patriots passing defense allowed a completion rate of 64.0%, relinquishing 117 yds on 16 for 25 passing. The Patriots finished the game with 457 yards on 56 plays (8.2 yds per play). New England rushed the football for 7.1 yards per attempt, finishing with 243 yds on 34 carries.

If you examine their scoring prowess, the Patriots currently rank 2nd in the league, maintaining an average of 28.8 PPG. In this season, the Patriots have compiled 4,258 yards via the pass and have an average of 250.5 yards via the pass per outing, which is good for 4th in professional football. They hold an average of 128.9 running yds per outing, and have carried the football for 2,191 yds. The New England Patriots average 379.4 yards per outing, which is good for 3rd in professional football. The New England offense has granted 854 total yards by way of 99 violations, which ranks them at 26th in the league when analyzing hurting your team. They have thrown 8 INTs while giving up 8 fumbles lost, and have been able to record 206 first downs offensively.

The Patriots are relinquishing 18.8 points per game, which has them ranking 4th in the league. They have allowed 25 touchdowns via the pass and 193.5 yards via the pass per outing, which is good for 9th in professional football. New England has granted a total of 1,729 rushing yds (101.7 total yards per outing), and 11 touchdowns via the rush over the course of this year. The Patriots defense has participated in 973 plays from scrimmage, which ranks them at 3rd in the league. The D has racked up 19 turnovers (9 fumbles forced and 10 picks) so far this year. All in all, they have yielded 320 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Chargers-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Chargers +3.5

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