The first USA Today Coaches’ Poll for college football was released today, which officially marks the start of the Hype & Bitchin’ Season. Now all of the two-bit hack writers that like to bitch about playoffs and the BCS have some fresh ammo. And for those who like to brag up their team/player/conference, well they can surely point now to the infallible poll rankings as “proof” of their boasts and assertions.

But on that point, the polls do serve an important function to college football bettors. The Hype is a critical component of how and why the spreads get set. For instance, a team like Oregon that is placed in the Top 15 is going to get a lot more respect from the general public than a team like, say, UCLA, Arizona or Stanford. As a result, the Ducks would likely be a solid favorite against any one of those teams if they were playing this Saturday. And all of that is based on speculation and conjecture, not on anything tangible or even statistical.

Yet, if Oregon was to line up against any one of those three teams – they play all three on the road – I would be much more likely to lay my money, with the points, on their opponent while all of the sheep and the squares pile their cash on Oregon because, you know, they’re No. 14 in the country.

And even if it were easy to dismiss the Coaches Poll right now, since it is the first poll of the season there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that it has a heavy influence on the Associated Press poll. So very quickly the perception that was released on Friday will quickly become the accepted, twisted “reality” of the college football landscape. At least, the “reality” of the squares in the betting world and the bobbleheads of the media world.

The ability to bet against the Coaches’ Poll might be its most useful quality. Because other than that the actual poll itself has been a pretty pathetic predictor of actual events over the past few years. I understand that a poll is not necessarily intended to “predict” future events. It is a snapshot of perceived strength at that moment by people involved in college football. (As the ridiculous Tim Tebow-Steve Spurrier preseason All-SEC snafu illustrated, yet again, the coaches are rarely the ones who actually do the voting in any of these polls.) But there is no doubt that the general betting public latches on to these rankings as a measure of actual strength, which is ridiculous.

Here is an example:

In 2008, 17 of the 25 teams in the Preseason Top 25 were ranked lower in the final poll of the season. A whopping 13 of the 25 teams weren’t even in the poll at the end of the season! That’s right: more than HALF of last year’s preseason poll wasn’t involved with the final poll taken at the end of the year. Three of the Preseason Top 10 – LSU, West Virginia and Clemson – weren’t even ranked and six of the Top 13 (throw in Auburn, Wisconsin and Kansas) were completely out of the Top 25.

The coaches weren’t much better with their polls in 2007. That year, again, 16 of the 25 teams were ranked lower at the end of the season and nine of the 25 teams were not ranked in the final poll.

In fact, if you go back over the last four seasons you’ll find that those numbers are pretty standard. During that time there have been 100 teams ranked in the Top 25 at the start of the year. Of those 100 squads, 63 were ranked lower at the end of the season, which works out to an average of about 16 per year.

Also, 40 of the 100 teams that started the year in the Top 25 were unranked in the final Coaches’ Poll. That includes five teams in the last four years (West Virginia 2008, Florida State in 2006, and Michigan, Tennessee and Iowa in 2005) that were ranked in the Top 10 that ended the season outside of the poll. So, essentially, two of every five teams in the Top 25 – including one of the Top 10 – are going to be completely out of the poll at the end of the year.

And if I were a fan of a team ranked between 11 and 25 I wouldn’t too hopped up about my team. Over the past five years, 43 of 75 teams – or nearly two of every three teams – that starts the year ranked No. 11 through No. 25 is out of the rankings at the end of the year.

Finally, the Coaches’ Poll has only correctly predicted the national champion once in the last seven years. That was USC in 2004 and that is not good for Florida Gator fans. You don’t have to look any further than last year’s proclamation of Georgia as the preseason No. 1 (they finished No. 10 in the final poll) to see what I mean. However, other than that dud last season the Coaches’ Poll has been right around the mark.

Here is how the Preseason No. 1 has fared, followed by this year’s poll:

2002 – Miami, No. 2 (to Ohio State)
2003 – Oklahoma, No. 3 (to LSU, USC)
2004 – USC, No. 1
2005 – USC, No. 2 (to Texas)
2006 – Ohio State, No. 2 (to Florida)
2007 – USC, No. 2 (to LSU)
2008 – Georgia, No. 10

USA Today Coaches' Poll – Friday, Aug. 7