NBA Season Win Totals
by Robert Ferringo - 10/15/2009
Last week the Las Vegas Hilton released its season win totals for the NBA season. While most online books are yet to post any NBA season wins 'over/unders' the Hilton's numbers serve as a great baseline for what we can expect from the other sportsbooks. Also, some of these Hilton numbers have already taken enough action to move the lines so we even have a read on who the sharps like and don't like heading into the year.
The NBA season's opening night takes place on Tuesday, Oct. 27.
The Cleveland Cavaliers picked up an enormous post presence in the offseason with the addition of Shaq and now they are shaq-ckled with one of the heaviest season wins total on the board: 61.5. That number actually opened at 60.5 but was bumped up to 61.5. Cleveland was only posted at 47.5 headed into last season and easily topped that mark with 66 wins. That was nearly 20 victories over their posted total.
The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers have the highest season win total on the board at 62.0. In my research, this is the highest NBA season wins total posted in at least five years. And both Cleveland and L.A.'s numbers are the first totals to settle above 60.0 during that time.
Orlando (57.5), Boston (56.5), San Antonio (54.5), Portland (54.5) and Denver (52.5) are in the second-tier of totals. With the exception of Denver each of those other four teams picked up a marquee free agent, which has the public expecting a significant bump in their play. Orlando inked Vince Carter, Boston picked up Rasheed Wallace, San Antonio landed Richard Jefferson, and Portland brought in Andre Miller. Also, all five of those teams went 'over' last year's preseason wins total.
San Antonio is the only team in the league that has gone 'over' its season wins projection in each of the last four years. They won 54 games last season and they have averaged 58 wins over the last five seasons.
Conversely, the New York Knicks are the only team in the NBA that has gone 'under' their season wins total in each of their last four years. This year's projection is a 31.5 wins. The Knicks won 32 games last season and have averaged 28 victories per season since 2004 with a high of 33.
As for this year's bottom feeders, Sacramento (24.5), Minnesota (25.5) and Milwaukee (25.5) have the lowest NBA season wins totals on the board. The Kings won just 17 games last year, the Timberwolves 24, and the Bucks 34. But one thing that makes Sacramento appealing is that over the last four seasons any team whose NBA season wins "over/under" total was posted at 25.0 or less went 'over' their projection.
Another interesting total out is that on the Washington Wizards. This team was posted at 38.5 prior to last season. But injuries and simply a lack of good play held them down to a pathetic 19-62 season. This year they welcome back Gilbert Arenas for (hopefully) a whole season and also added some key free agent pieces like Mike Miller in the offseason. All of this has led the oddsmakers to actually raise Washington's season wins total to 41.5.
These numbers have not been out long enough to experience significant movement. However, Washington is one of four teams that have already seen their season win totals shift a full game. The Wizards are presently at 41.5 after opening at 42.5. Boston (from 55.5 to 56.5), Charlotte (36.5 to 37.5), Cleveland (60.5 to 61.5), and the Clippers (35.5 to 34.5) have each dropped a full game as well.
Here is the complete list of 2009-10 NBA Season Win Totals, as currently listed at the Las Vegas Hilton:
Atlanta Hawks - 44.5
Boston Celtics - 56.5
Charlotte Bobcats - 37.5
Chicago Bulls - 40.5
Cleveland Cavaliers - 61.5
Dallas Mavericks - 48.5
Denver Nuggets - 52.5
Detroit Pistons - 41.5
Golden State Warriors - 35.5
Houston Rockets - 35.5
Indiana Pacers - 34.5
L.A. Clippers - 34.5
L.A. Lakers - 62
Memphis Grizzlies - 27.5
Miami Heat - 40
Milwaukee Bucks - 25.5
Minnesota Timberwolves - 25.5
New Jersey Nets - 28.5
New Orleans Hornets -46.5
New York Knicks - 31.5
Oklahoma City Thunder - 35.5
Orlando Magic - 57.5
Philadelphia 76ers - 40.5
Phoenix Suns - 41.5
Portland Trail Blazers - 52.5
Sacramento Kings - 24.5
San Antonio Spurs - 54.5
Toronto Raptors - 41.5
Utah Jazz - 49.5
Washington Wizards - 41.5
Robert Ferringo is a professional NBA handicapper for Doc's Sports. You can purchase all of his NBA predictions this year (through June) for less than $20 per week. Click here for details.
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