College Football Picks: Florida Vs. Alabama Betting Odds and Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 10/2/2010
This Saturday, No. 7 Florida heads to Tuscaloosa to take on No. 1 Alabama in the marquee game in the top college football conference in the country. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. and the winner will become the favorite to take the SEC crown and represent the league in the BCS National Championship Game.
Other than that, there is nothing much going on in this game.
Florida and Alabama represent two of the top three or four football programs in the nation. They have combined for three of the last four national championships and have controlled the landscape of the sport for the last half-decade. Everyone from scouts to coaches to Heisman voters to media bobbleheads to every shit-kicking hillbilly below Mason-Dixon will have eyes on this game and could be a preview for an even bigger matchup this December for the conference crown.
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This is a rematch of last year’s SEC Championship Game, which Alabama won 32-13 en route to winning the national championship. Of course, that game was a rematch of the 2008 SEC Championship Game, which Florida won 31-20 en route to winning the national championship.
But while this is a rematch and revenge game for Florida it’s also the first meeting between these two college football superpowers A.T.: After Tebow. New Florida quarterback John Brantley is doing his best to fill the shoes of one of college football’s all-time great quarterbacks and all-time winners. Brantley has completed 64 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and just one turnover. There has been a learning curve, but despite Brantley’s perceived struggles (Florida is just No. 78 in the nation in yards per game) the Gators have still managed to average 37.8 points per game.
The Gators are 30-2 straight up in their last 32 games. They have covered the spread in three straight contests and are an incredible 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games against a team with a winning record. Florida is 12-3 ATS on the road and has covered nearly 70 percent of its games both overall and in conference over the last couple seasons. Quite simply, they are about as hard to bet against as any program in the land.
Alabama’s offense has no problems on the experience front. They have their quarterback, top two rushers, and three of four top receivers from last year’s SEC title game. That list of skill players includes last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, Mark Ingram, as well as one of the top wide receivers in the nation, Julio Jones. Mix in a loaded offensive line and the Crimson Tide have had no problem moving the ball through their first four games.
That doesn’t mean that the Crimson Tide hasn’t had any problems through those games, though. Alabama was on the ropes last week at Arkansas, trailing 20-14 with less than seven minutes to play in the game and down 20-17 with less than four minutes to go. However, they handled the situation like champions do: keeping composure and making enough plays to pull out another big-time score.
This is the fourth meeting between these clubs since 2005 and the home team has won by double digits in each of the last two regular season meetings (2005 and 2006). The victor of this game has won by double-digits in each of the last four meetings as well.
Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide Football Betting Odds
Alabama is the favorite in this game but the number is coming down. The Crimson Tide opened at -9.0 and this college football point spread is currently -8.0 with it dropping even further at select books. The total is 48.0.
Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide Razorbacks Betting Trends
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Gators are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Alabama.
Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.
Gators are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 conference games.
Gators are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Gators are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide College Football Picks and Predictions
The bottom line in this matchup is that these are two very different teams from the ones that met in the Georgia Dome last December. Florida won the national championship back in 2006 and was able to quickly reload and set themselves up for a three-year run under Tebow and another national title. But that era is over and the Gators are back to square one. It is as if the uncertainty of playing without Tebow, coupled with the uncertainty of Urban Meyer’s situation, has carried through the offseason into this year. That’s not a great place to be.
Alabama, on the other hand, looks like the Gators did after they won the title. They have maintained a talented and effective core on offense and they have recruited the top talent in the nation on both sides of the ball. While Florida was playing patty-cake with Miami, OH and Tennessee, the Crimson Tide was beating teams like Penn State and Arkansas. There is simply a difference in class right now.
Obviously I like the Crimson Tide to win this one. But the top value here might be on the ‘over’. Florida is starting to find a rhythm on offense. And whether they move the ball or not they are still averaging almost 40 points per game. All of Alabama’s top talent is on the offensive side and I think that both coaches and quarterbacks will be able to exploit a pair of young defenses in a game like this.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional NFL and college football handicapper for Doc’s Sports. So far this year he has banked $2,500 in profit for his clients and has brought in nearly $4,000 in football profit while posting three straight winning football months. He has a College Football Game of the Month on the card this week and he’s looking for more today. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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