College Football Picks: San Jose State at Nevada Betting Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 10/9/2010
We’re back this week to preview the last game on the NCAA board on Saturday night, and since Hawaii is on the road it’s San Jose State-Nevada that offers your final betting option for the day.
And let’s not kid ourselves: This game shouldn’t be remotely close, although the Wolf Pack (5-0) could be looking a bit ahead to traveling to Hawaii next week. Nevada is the Oregon of the WAC in that it is an offensive/running juggernaut. The Wolf Pack are fifth in the nation in rushing (303.8 yards per game) and fourth in scoring (44.6). They are 5-0 for the first time in their Division I-A history (since 1992). Oh, and they have yet to trail this season.
San Jose State (1-4), meanwhile, is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, ranking last in scoring (9.8 points per game) and in the 100s in both rushing and passing. The Spartans have had a rough schedule so far, losing at ranked teams Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah. But last week’s 14-13 home loss to FCS school UC Davis is not acceptable. SJSU did manage a season-high 339 yards of total offense against UC Davis, including a season-high six plays of 25 yards or more.
Nevada leads the all-time series 14-8-2. The Wolf Pack won the last two meetings between these teams, including 62-7 a year ago. In that one the Wolf Pack tied an NCAA record by having four 100-yard rushers in the same game. San Jose State last won in Reno back in 2000. This is the WAC opener for both.
San Jose State vs. Nevada Predictions: Team Breakdowns
If Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick played at a BCS school he would be a Heisman Trophy candidate. The senior is Denard Robinson-like in that he averages 210 yards passing and 110 yards running per game and is seventh nationally in total offense. Kaepernick needs 46 yards rushing to become the third career QB to surpass 3,500 yards rushing and 7,000 yards passing. His 48 rushing TDs are most among active QBs. Nevada RB Vai Taua has four straight 100-yard games.
Meanwhile, SJSU quarterback Jordan La Secla is expected to play. He was knocked out of that loss to UC Davis in the fourth quarter with a rib injury. The senior has completed 67.3 percent of his passes to rank 20th in the nation and San Jose State has scored all nine times it has moved inside the opponents' 20. It’s one of only five schools in the nation to have a 100 percent scoring rate when reaching the red zone (unfortunately, five of them are field goals).
Nevada is first in the nation in third-down conversions (62.3 percent) and San Jose State is last (19.4). The Wolf Pack have won eight in a row at home while SJSU has lost 10 straight on the road.
San Jose State vs. Nevada Betting Odds
Nevada is a 38-point favorite with the total at 58.5, according to college football odds. About 61 percent of the lean is on the Wolf Pack. The line jumped as high as 39.5 midweek at some books but has since come back to where it is now. The total opened as high as 61.5. Nevada is 3-2 ATS this year, while SJSU is 1-4 ATS.
San Jose State at Nevada betting trends
SJSU is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 road games
Nevada is 4-0 in its past four WAC games
The ‘over’ is 8-3 in Nevada’s past 11 WAC games
SJSU is 1-7 ATS in the past eight meetings
San Jose State at Nevada Predictions and College Football Picks
Nevada has a chance to go 6-0 for the first time since Coach Chris Ault's 1991 team finished 12-1 and won the Division I-AA Big Sky Conference Championship. That’s obviously going to happen. It’s just a matter of whether the Wolf Pack are up by 40 or so and put in their second string and SJSU can cover. I say no. The total is interesting because Nevada could get that by itself. But I lean toward the ‘under’ because SJSU can’t score.
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