College Football Season Win Totals Predictions: West Coast Teams
by Robert Ferringo - 7/28/2011
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We already broke down some college football season win totals odds and predictions from the Las Vegas Hilton. That was my “East Coast” breakdown, and today we’re going to take a look at some of the top schools out West and what their long-term prospects are for this season against what the oddsmakers and Joe Public expect.
If you’re not familiar with this type of college football futures wager, college football season win totals are numbers from the sportsbooks based on how many wins they think a certain team will accrue during the regular season. Conference championship games and bowl wins don’t count toward this total and the books take action based on what bettors think in terms of college football predictions.
Season win totals don’t just offer a great opportunity for high rates of return on relatively short (six months for college) investments. They also provide some insights into the teams that the books and college football handicappers are looking at as over- and underrated heading into the year.
Here are some college football season win totals predictions, with lines courtesy of the Hilton:
Oklahoma – 10 
  Breakdown: The Sooners have 15 starters and a ton of talent back  from last season’s 12-win group and a schedule that really works in their  favor. They get a bye week before a key nonconference game at Florida State and  three of their four toughest nonconference games are either at home or on a  neutral field. 
Boise State – 10.5 (Over –120)
  Breakdown: This program has averaged 11.8 wins per season over the course  of the last nine years and the Boise  State football schedule is loaded with cupcakes in the nonconference. If I  were making Boise State football predictions I would say that they have a much  better chance of sailing ‘over’ this number then they do of coming up short. 
Stanford – 9 (Under -150) 
  Breakdown: On the one hand, they have the Heisman  Trophy frontrunner and the best quarterback in college football leading the  way. On the other hand, Andrew Luck can’t play defense, can’t make up for the  10 starters lost, and can’t replace what Jim Harbaugh took with him to San  Francisco. Stanford only has one road game against a 2010 bowl team and they  close with three games at home. I do think this team is overrated, but I also  don’t think that Luck will let them fall off a cliff. 
Texas A&M – 8.5 (Under -120)
  Breakdown: This is Mike Sherman’s fourth year and his team is one  of the most experienced in the country. The Texas  A&M Aggies football schedule has five conference home games and the  nonconference slate consists of two gimmes (SMU and Idaho) as well as a revenge  game with Arkansas in Arlington. I definitely think that this team could manage  10 wins this year and I love the odds here on them getting to at least nine. 
Oklahoma State – 8.5
  Breakdown: The Cowboys were No. 115 in the nation in pass defense  last year and aren’t any better this time around. Also, OSU has six road games,  including a potentially lethal nonconference trip to Tulsa. They also have to  play at A&M, at Texas, at Missouri and at Texas Tech. Pencil in a loss to  OU in the Bedlam game and I think I can find four losses on this schedule. 
Nebraska – 9.5 (Over -140)
  Breakdown: I think that Nebraska is going to be very happy with its  decision to switch to the Big Ten. I think they will be unbeaten at home (7-0)  this year, and that means they just need to find three road wins and they will  clear these college  football odds. It’s not a great value play because I could see them losing  three games. But I am also predicting that Nebraska will win the Big Ten and  represent in the BCS, so I can’t really bet against them. 
Arizona State – 8 (Over -120)
  Breakdown: This team hasn’t posted a record better than .500 since  2007 and they have only surpassed the eight-win plateau twice in the last 10  years. However, they will be the preseason favorites in the new Pac-12 South. State does have a tough nonconference schedule though, with a game  against Missouri leading up to a trip to Illinois, with both coming the two  weeks prior to the conference home opener against USC. That makes September a  pretty emotional month. 
USC – 7.5 (Over -130)
  Breakdown: After a run of 72-9 from 2002-2008 the Trojans have gone  17-9 in the last two seasons. This year they have just 12 seniors on the roster  and they have to deal with a motivational disincentive (they can’t go to a bowl  game or the Pac-12 title game). Oh, yeah, and there is the small matter of Lane  Kiffin being a joke as a coach. They have five tough road games and they draw  Stanford at home. I can’t say how they will fare this year, but I can say that  I won’t be touching this number with a 10-foot pole. 
Notre Dame – 8.5 (Over -130)
  Breakdown:The Irish are always, ALWAYS, the most overrated team in  the country when the college  football season win totals odds are released. This year is no exception. I  know the Irish finished last year strong and have 16 starters back. They will  also be better in Year 2 of the Brian Kelly Era. But they are also the same  group that got ramrodded by Navy and lost – at home – to Tulsa.
Oregon State – 6.5 (Under -130)
  Breakdown:Mike Riley’s team has failed to pass the previous year’s  win total in four straight seasons. Last year the Beavers won just five games.  And with just four defensive starters back, an unsteady quarterback, and an  uncertain future for top playmaker James Rodgers, I don’t see a bright light at  the end of the tunnel for this year’s team. Especially with the brutal slate  they are up against. 
TCU – 9 (Under -130)
  Breakdown:TCU’s road in the Mountain West got significantly easier  this year, having two excellent programs (BYU and Utah) replaced by just one  (Boise State). But TCU is coming off a perfect season (13-0) and their highest  ranking ever (finished No. 2). Those facts alone would make me expect a  letdown. And when you consider they are brining back just eight starters and  replacing the best quarterback in school history, I am certain that TCU will  slide back a bit.
BYU – 8.5 (Over -150)
  Breakdown: The BYU  football schedule is pretty rough on the road, with games at Ole Miss, at  Texas, at Oregon State, at TCU and at Hawaii dotting the slate. But these wacky  Mormons and their 26-year-old starters will always be focused and will always  be tough and disciplined.
Missouri – 7.5 (Over -120)
  Breakdown:The Tigers have an unforgiving road schedule, with trips  to Arizona State, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. But they only play two true road  games after Oct. 9. This number seems very low for a program that has been as  successful as Missouri the last few years. But they have a killer schedule and  are thinner on defense than I would like.  
Utah – 7.5 (Under -120)
  Breakdown:The Pac-12’s newest member had better be ready to party.  After they floss with Montana State the Utes have to travel to USC and to BYU  for the Holy War in back-to-back weeks. Utah does get a break by avoiding both  Oregon and Stanford in league play. But an odd October trip to Pittsburgh could  be trouble and I think they are going to find the sledding much tougher without  stiffs like Wyoming, UNLV and Colorado State on the schedule. 
Nevada – 8 (Under -125)
  Breakdown: If you are wondering why the Vegas books would have a  number on a team like Nevada, but not one like, say, Syracuse, it is because  those sportsbooks will take a lot of local money from alumni, supporters, or  other fans of this local team. Nevada lost an enormous amount of talent from  last year’s squad and I think that this number is ambitious. But their schedule  is exceedingly beneficial in WAC play. And they still have one of the best  rosters in this feeble division. 
UNLV – 2.5 (Over -130)
  Breakdown: Some books already have the Runnin’ Rebels at 3.0. This  is really just a local play, as the books try to take advantage of any loyalty  or passion for the hometown team. They have only won more than two games twice  in the last seven years and I don’t see anything on this year’s club that would  make me expect anything more. 
Robert Ferringo is an NFL and college football handicapper and is coming off an exceptionally profitable 2010-11 football season (college and pro). Over the last year his clients have more than tripled their bankrolls with his predictions in all sports. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this fall and you can check him out here.
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