Super Bowl Betting Advice and Strategy - Mistakes Bettors Make
by Trevor Whenham - 2/3/2011
The Super Bowl is a strange phenomenon in sports betting -- it’s the one game that everyone waits all year to bet, but for a whole lot of reasons it is generally far from the best game of the year from a betting perspective. If you are serious about making money on this game, then, you have to make sure that you are avoiding costly mistakes that can put a big dent in your bankroll. Here is some Super Bowl betting advice and strategy to avoid five of the biggest mistakes most bettors make:
Buying into the hype - There are nearly 5000 accredited members of the media at the Super Bowl, and thousands more writing about it from afar. Many of those people aren’t hardcore football writers throughout the year, and they aren’t necessarily football experts. As a result, it’s very common for stories to gain traction and get blown completely out of proportion in the weeks leading up to the game.
During the two weeks between games you’ll hear about players that are brilliant, coaches who are geniuses, locker rooms that are fractured, players who are playing hurt, and all sorts of other speculation. It can be easy -- too easy -- to buy into what is said and base your betting decisions on it. The fact is, though, that most of the stuff is only being reported as much as it is because there is so much demand for stories and so little that is really going on.
At the very least you need to think about everything you hear to see if it actually makes sense and if it really has any impact on the game. You also need to be as sure as you can that anything you decide to act on is actually true -- rumors are everywhere this time of year, and truth is of little concern to the people who are creating them.
Playing too many Super Bowl props - One of the craziest, most exciting parts of the Super Bowl for bettors is the wide range of prop bets that are available. There are props available about pretty much everything, and the number of props seems to grow exponentially every year.
Most of the props are terrible bets in terms of value, but there are several every year that are intriguing. If you don’t show restraint when making your prop bets, though -- formulating a strategy and then acting on it -- then you can easily find yourself making too many bets, and even getting yourself in a situation where you are making it very hard to end up with a profit because of conflicting props.
There is no better way to feel stupid than to have picked the right side in the game and still lose money overall because you blew it on props.
Using your heart, not your head - It can be very easy to act emotionally when you are betting on the Super Bowl. There is likely one team that you like much more than the other. Like in every game, though, acting on these preferences and gut feelings is a sure way to end up broke over the long term.
There’s nothing wrong with starting your Super Bowl handicapping process based on who you like emotionally, but you shouldn’t make a bet -- at least not if you want to make a smart bet -- until you can back up that feeling with good reasons for your opinion and you are sure you are getting reasonable value with your Super Bowl pick.
Betting before you have to - People get really excited about the Super Bowl, and they are often tempted to make their bet soon after the conference championships are played. Unless you think there is going to be a huge line movement and you are positioned to take advantage of it, though, there is really no reason to bet any sooner than you have to on this game.
Two weeks between games is a really long time, and a lot can happen in that time that will have an impact in the outcome of the game. The longer you wait, the more information you have to make your pick and the better the chance you have of making the right pick.
Value is almost impossible to find in this game, so you really need to have the most information you can have to make a sound decision.
Betting too much - I’ve heard several stories over the years of people who have turned a winning season into a losing one because they bet too much on the Super Bowl and lost. It’s the biggest game of the year, and the last one, but it’s still just one game -- and a harder game than most to handicap.
There’s nothing wrong with betting more on this game than you would on normal games, but there is nothing stupider than betting more on this game than you would be willing to lose.
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