College Basketball Betting: Hot or Not Handicapping Report
by Dave Schwab - 2/20/2012
The final few weeks of the regular season college basketball schedule is upon us with the madness of March’s NCAA Tournament a little over a month away. While the top teams in the country continue to jockey for a favorable seed in the 68-team field, a couple of schools on the bubble are simply trying to earn an invitation to the Big Dance.
There are a number of teams that have been and continue to be impressive with their play on the court, but our ‘hot and not’ list is more concerned with the teams that have either provided a profitable return against the spread or have been a major drain on the bankroll. Here is a rundown of this week’s teams that fit the bill through this past weekend’s games.
Who is Hot
One of the hottest teams in the country on the court has been the New Mexico Lobos, out of the Mountain West Conference, with seven-straight victories and an overall record of 22-4 straight up. The reason they grabbed the top spot on this week’s list is a perfect 7-0 record against the spread in their current winning streak and a 17-6 record ATS overall. The Lobos knocked-off the UNLV Rebels, 65-45, this past Saturday as 4.5-point home favorites to open a two-game lead over the Rebels in the conference with a record of 8-2 SU. They are 8-3 ATS at home and 9-3 ATS on the road.
Another team making some noise in its conference is the Big Ten’s No.8 Michigan State Spartans. Sunday’s 76-62 romp over Purdue as 4.5-point road favorites was their fifth win in-a-row both SU and ATS. The Spartans are now 22-5 SU on the year and have a one-game lead over Ohio State in the standings with a record of 11-3 SU. Overall, Michigan State is 17-7 ATS this year; 10-3 ATS at home and 7-4 ATS on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last four games and is now 12-11-1 overall.
Another hot team ATS with a 5-1 record in its last six games is the Seton Hall Pirates out of the Big East. They are coming off a 62-57 loss to Cincinnati this past Saturday but still covered as six-point road underdogs. The Pirates are now 18-9 SU on the year and 15-8 ATS. They are 8-3 ATS at home and 7-5 ATS on the road, with the total staying ‘under’ in 14 of the 23 games overall. Seton Hall is currently ninth in the conference standings with a record of 7-8 SU.
A few other teams earning an honorable mention this week are a pair of teams out of the Atlantic 10 and one from the Western Athletic Conference. The Drexel Dragons are 23-5 SU and 16-10 ATS and the Saint Joseph’s Hawks are 18-10 SU and 17-7 ATS. The WAC’s Nevada Wolf Pack are 22-5 SU and 15-7 ATS.
Who is Not
The Virginia Tech Hokies, from the ACC, beat Georgia Tech, 74-73, in overtime this past Saturday, but failed to cover as eight-point home favorites. It was the seventh time in the last eight games that the Hokies failed to cover the spread. They have also struggled SU during this stretch with a 3-5 record that have them 15-12 SU on the year. Virginia Tech is 7-15-1 ATS overall and has been especially costly at home with a 3-9 record ATS. The total has stayed under in 14 of 23 games this season.
The Big Ten’s Illinois Fighting Illini still have a winning record overall at 16-11 SU, but they have just one SU win in their last nine games and are also 1-8 ATS. This prolonged slide has dropped the Fighting Illini to a costly 9-16 ATS overall and they are now 5-8 ATS at home and 4-8 ATS on the road. The total has gone over in 14 of the 25 games. Illinois has fallen all the way to 10th in the conference with a record of 5-9 SU.
A few other teams that deserve a dishonorable mention this week are the defending champion Connecticut Huskies, out of the Big East, at 16-10 SU but 8-14 ATS and the Colonial Athletic Associations’ George Mason Patriots at 23-6 SU but 10-16 ATS.
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