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2026 Florida Gators Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/25/2026

Florida Gators basketball predictions Boogie Fland

The Florida Gators entered last season as the defending national champs. And while they dominated their way through much of the season, they faced an early elimination after earning another No. 1 Seed in March. After cruising through their first-round matchup, the Gators were upended by the Iowa Hawkeyes. While the loss was crushing, the big storyline to follow this season is that Todd Golden was able to keep his frontcourt together, and he was able to score Denzel Aberdeen in the transfer portal. These additions add some perimeter support, which could translate into a lethal offense for Florida. Golden and the Gators don’t have to prove whether or not they can win the National Championship, but they have to go out and show that they can consistently be a national powerhouse year in and year out.

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Florida Gators Summary of Last Season

Last season was a very productive one for the Gators, at least during the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 25-6 record. During the regular season the Gators picked up impressive wins against the likes of Miami, #18 Georgia, #21 Tennessee, #10 Vanderbilt, #23 Alabama, #20 Arkansas, and they swept Kentucky in three games. The Gators brought a 12-game winning streak into the SEC Tournament Semifinals, but their momentum fled as they got stomped by Vanderbilt, losing by 17 points. Despite the earlier than expected loss, the Gators managed to keep hold of one of the No. 1 Seeds heading into March Madness. They destroyed their first-round matchup Prairie View A&M, beating them 114-55. Unfortunately, the No. 9 Seed Iowa Hawkeyes stopped the Gators in their tracks, knocking them off in buzzer-beater fashion 73-72. Despite the early exit, the Gators managed to go 16-2 in conference play, and they posted a 6-4 record against ranked opponents.

The Gators ran one of the most productive offenses in the country last season. They averaged 87.1 PPG which ranked 11th in the nation. They shot 48.4% as a team, though they only made 31.2% from deep which did keep their offense from elite status. They led the country in rebounding, posting a national best +14.6 RPG differential. The Gators also managed five BPG and 6.6 SPG. Their 71.5 PPG against was the second-best mark in the conference, and they held opponents to just 40.7% from the floor. Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon formed the best frontcourt in the country. Haugh led the team with 17.1 PPG, while shooting over 32% from deep, and averaging 6.1 PPG. Condon was right on his heels with 15.1 PPG, and he finished second on the team with 7.5 RPG. Condon also averaged 3.6 APG and 1.4 BPG. Xaivian Lee, Boogie Fland, and Rueben Chinyelu also averaged over 10 PPG. Chinyelu led the team with 11.2 RPG, Lee led the team with 4.2 APG, and Fland led with 1.7 SPG.

2026 Florida Gators Key Additions/Losses

The biggest loss from last year’s roster is Lee. Lee finished last season averaging 11.6 PPG (3rd on the team), 3.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, and he shot 42% on the season. He packed his bags and transferred over to Gonzaga to join the 15th ranked Bulldogs. 7’9” Olivier Rioux also left the Gators program. After appearing in just 11 games for Florida a season ago, he has transferred to UC Irvine in hopes of taking on a bigger roll. The Gators also lost fellow center Micah Handlogten who left the program for SEC rival Ole Miss. Overall, the transfer noise surrounding Florida was quite in terms of departures, which is scary for everyone else in the country.

With little departing players, there was little need for Golden to get active. However, they did add some much-needed perimeter power by adding Aberdeen. Aberdeen returns to Florida after spending his first three collegiate years with the Gators before a quick stop in Kentucky. Aberdeen started all but one game for Kentucky a season ago, averaging 13.5 PPG while shooting 36.3% from deep and averaging 3.4 APG. Aberdeen will join Fland in the backcourt and he now benefits from having Haugh and Condon down low.

2026 Florida Gators Schedule Breakdown

Home- #2 Duke, Oklahoma, #7 Texas, #24 Vanderbilt, #23 Kentucky

Away- Florida State, #7 Texas, #20 Alabama, #8 Tennessee, #12 Arkansas

Neutral- #14 Miami, Georgia Tech

2026 Florida Gators X-Factors/Big Questions

Can Boogie Fland Elevate the Program?

After spending his freshman year with Arkansas, Fland left to join Florida. However, he saw his three-point ability decline drastically. He shot 34% from deep in 21 games with the Razorbacks, but last season he cashed in on just 24% of his three-point shots. He also saw his free throw performance drop from 83.3% with Arkansas to 72.6% with Florida, and his overall scoring numbers declined from 13.5 PPG to 11.6 PPG. He doesn’t have to be the focal point of this offense, and he likely won’t be with the elite frontcourt. However, he can elevate this offense if he can find his groove from beyond the arc.

Will Florida Survive in March?

No one saw an early exit for Florida last season. However, the Hawkeyes had other plans in eliminating arguably the best team in the country in the Round of 32. Florida is lucky enough to bring back pretty much everyone, while also making an improvement to the roster with the addition of Aberdeen. Now, it is time for this experienced roster to prove they are one of the best collegiate squads to take the floor together and avoid laying an egg in March.

2026 Florida Gators Basketball Notable Odds:

National Championship: +600

SEC Champion: +112

AP Top 25: 1st 

Andy Katz’s Power 44: 1st

Wooden Winner- Thomas Haugh: +1300

Wooden Winner- Alex Condon: +3500

2026 Florida Gators Basketball Predictions:

The Gators are number one to start the year for a reason. While there are so many factors that can come into play in March, the Gators are the clear best team heading into the season. Even if they are not the most “talented,” they have valuable experience on their side. Haugh, Condon, and Chinyelu may makeup the best frontcourt in the history of college basketball. The loss of Lee hurts a bit as he was the teams third leading scorer, but the addition of Aberdeen may be an actual improvement to the roster with his three-point ability. If Fland can find his Arkansas groove, Florida may not lose a game all year. Expect Florida to avoid the early exit this year and find their way to the Final Four and perhaps they will be the ones to cut down the nets this season.

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