NBA Handicapping: Update on Back-to-Back-to-Back Betting Trends
by Dave Schwab - 4/11/2012
One of the unique aspects of this year’s NBA abbreviated 66-game regular season schedule, due to offseason labor issues, was the necessity to cram all these games into a very tight time-frame in order to start the playoffs by the beginning of May.
Because of this accelerated schedule, teams would have to play three games in three days 42 times this season, with all 30 teams having at least having at least one back-to-back-to back stretch on its slate.
The following is an update of both the straight-up and against-the-spread results through this past weekend’s games as well as a look at a few opportunities to cash in on some of the remaining B2B2B matchups between now and the end of the regular season.
The Early Returns
The prolonged labor dispute not only delayed the start of the NBA regular season by over a month, it allowed all 30 teams to start things off with fresh legs. The extra games in consecutive days appeared to have little or no impact as the first five teams to face a B2B2B2 not only won the game against the spread but won it straight-up as well.
Minnesota was the first team to drop the third game both SU and ATS but it was against Chicago. As the month of January wore on a few more teams fell under the weight of playing three games in-a-row, but the overall results remained positive.
At the end of the month, there were 15 B3B3B series in the books and the overall record both SU and ATS was 9-6. The record for teams playing its third game at home was 9-4 SU and ATS with both Philadelphia and Portland dropping its third game on the road both SU and ATS.
The results were mixed in the month of February with teams going 5-5 both SU and ATS in the third game of a B2B2B, but the trends for the road team improved to 4-4 ATS on the year and 3-5 SU.
Detroit was the first team to lose a game SU but cover the spread in a 99-96 road loss to New Jersey as a 6.5-point underdog. Indiana was the first team to win its third game SU, while failing to cover, with a 93-88 win over the Nets as a nine-point home favorite.
The B2B2B trends from March1 through this past Saturday’s games headed south with a 4-7 record both SU and ATS in the last 11 Game 3s. The road team went 1-4 and the home team finished this stretch 3-3.
The Bottom Line
When you add-up all the numbers, there have been 36 B2B2B series so far. The overall record has been a wash at 18-18 both SU and ATS, but upon closer inspection, there have been some advantages along the way.
The home team has gone 14-8 SU and 13-9 ATS while the road team is 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS. When you look at the results in terms of a team’s overall record, the ones with a winning record at this point in the season have gone 13-8 SU and 12-9 ATS in their third game, while the teams with an overall losing record have gone 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS in the back-end of their B2B2B.
A Look Ahead
Starting with Boston’s game on the road against Charlotte this Saturday night, there are six more B2B2B series left on the schedule. Cleveland plays his third game in three days this Sunday at home against Orlando and on April 18 both Philadelphia and San Antonio wrap up the back-end of a B2B2B on the road.
The Pistons will close-out their second B2B2B of the season on April 19 at home against the Timberwolves and Golden State wraps-up the final B2B2B of the season on April 22 with a road game against Minnesota.
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