The story of the NBA’s Southwest Division in 2012-13 is the old trying to hold off the young. One of those “young” teams, Memphis, has already broken onto the scene. Can the Grizzlies go one step further and overtake San Antonio as the cream of the crop? One of those “old” teams, Dallas, has seemingly started a descent. Can Dirk Nowitzki return from injury and lead the Mavericks back to the playoffs?

Unless Dirk is out for an unexpectedly extended period, the battle to avoid last place will be waged between the Rockets and Hornets. Both franchises did well to establish an identity by shaking things up during the offseason, but how soon will it pay dividends?

Here’s a quick look at each team, in order of the division’s 2011-12 finish (lockout-shortened regular-season record in bold).

(all odds provided by Sportsbook.ag)

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (50-16)

2011-12 ATS & “over/under” records: 42-20-4; 39-26-1
2012-13 over/under wins: 55.5
Odds to win NBA title: +1200
Odds to win West: +600
Odds to win Southwest Division: -400 (favorite)

The San Antonio Spurs don’t tinker with their roster. They don’t mess with success. That’s just not what they do; not even on the heels of having been unceremoniously bounced from the Western Conference Playoffs by Oklahoma City, with four straight losses swiftly erasing a 2-0 lead.

Prior to the ouster, however, this same Spurs group went on an epic winning streak and compiled the best record in the NBA. The roster is one year older, but it still looks good on paper and will do the same on the basketball court as long as everyone stays healthy. With Tim Duncan approaching 37 years old and slowing down just a bit, Tony Parker picked up the slack last season and emerged as a viable MVP candidate. The Spurs scored more points than every other NBA team except Denver, and the trio of Duncan, Parker, and Manu Ginobili is dangerous enough to do it again.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (41-25)

2011-12 ATS & O/U records: 29-37; 26-40
2012-13 over/under wins: 49
Odds to win NBA title: +3000
Odds to win West: +1500
Odds to win Southwest Division: +300

The laughingstock of the league not long ago, Memphis has put together two consecutive seasons in which it has finished at least 10 games over .500. The Grizzlies fell in a decisive Game 7 in each of the last two playoffs—against the Thunder two years ago and against the Los Angeles Clippers last season. Additional experience could be the key to a similar situation in the summer of 2013.

And it would not be surprising to see Memphis make a playoff run. Unlike other Western Conference contenders (but similar to Oklahoma City, for example), the Grizzlies are young and on the rise. Zach Randolph must stay healthy, and they need to find some reliable contributors off the bench to replace O.J. Mayo. They held opponents to 93.0 points per game last season (fifth best in the NBA), and the defense, led by Tony Allen, should be impressive once again.

DALLAS MAVERICKS (36-30)

2011-12 ATS & O/U records: 32-34; 33-33
2012-13 over/under wins: 44.5
Odds to win NBA title: +4000
Odds to win West: +1500
Odds to win Southwest Division: +1200

There are teams built to overcome the loss of a superstar…and then there’s the Dallas Mavericks. Dirk has been the heart and soul of this franchise, leading it to an NBA Championship two seasons ago. But he’ll be on the sideline for the beginning of this one, as recent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee will shelve him for at least six weeks.

Fellow veterans Jason Kidd and Jason Terry are gone, so Dallas needs Dirk even more than it has in the past. The additions of post presences Elton Brand and Chris Kaman should help steer the ship while Dirk is absent, as should Mayo’s arrival from Memphis. Everything, though, hinges on Dirk.

HOUSTON ROCKETS (34-32)

2011-12 ATS & O/U records: 32-34; 29-36-1
2012-13 over/under wins: 29.5
Odds to win NBA title: +10000
Odds to win West: +5000
Odds to win Southwest Division: +5000

You’re gonna need a program to identify the Houston Rockets’ players this season…and that’s even if you live in Houston. No roster has endured more of a makeover. Gone are Chase Budinger, Marcus Camby, Samuel Dalembert, Goran Dragic, Courtney Lee, and Luis Scola. Joining the fray are—among others—Omer Asik, Carlos Delfino, Jeremy Lamb, Jeremy Lin, and Royce White.

Lin will generate headlines and put Houston in the spotlight on occasion, but whether he can have an impact on the win column is a whole different matter altogether. The Rockets still have scoring machine Kevin Martin and the Lin-Martin backcourt should be dynamic. Overall, however, this young team has far more questions than answers.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (21-45)

2011-12 ATS & O/U records: 35-31; 30-35-1
2012-13 over/under wins: 27
Odds to win NBA title: +10000
Odds to win West: +5000
Odds to win Southwest Division: +5000

Bow to the ‘brow. Hornets’ fans will be doing just that, and it will be the story of the team’s 2012-13 campaign. No. 1 pick Anthony Davis has already lit a much-needed spark for the New Orleans franchise, so in that regard this season is already a success.

As for the overall outlook, the Hornets are at least a year or two away from playoff contention. If nothing else, though, they are clearly headed in the right direction after one awful season in the post-Chris Paul era. The backcourt of the present and the future is set with Greivis Vasquez, Austin Rivers, and injury-prone Eric Gordon. If Davis breaks out right away, New Orleans could escape the Southwest cellar.

2012 Southwest Division Predictions

Arguments can be made for this being a one-horse race or a two-horse race. Dallas could have had outside shot at making it a three-horse race with an in-form Dirk for all 82 games, but that won’t happen. Look for the finish to be as follows: Spurs, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Rockets, and Hornets. Enticing NBA season totals wins bets include the under on Dallas and the over on New Orleans.

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