Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: Ohio Bobcats Week 2
by Aaron Smith - 9/5/2012
It’s time for the second weekly edition of the mid-major betting report. Last year’s mid-major betting report netted $100 unit bettors $1,280 in profit based on a record of 7-2-1. Last year, I followed the Rice Owls. I will be following the Ohio Bobcats this season. I’ll be keeping an eye on beat writers, Twitter feeds, and press conferences from the Bobcats football program. By becoming an expert on the Ohio Bobcats, I want to show the betting world how specialization is a profitable sports betting strategy.
At the end of each weekly article, I will make a selection for that weekend’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick, which should help readers follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks.
Last Week’s Game
Ohio’s offense had virtually no success in the first half of last week’s game against Penn State. The Bobcats scored only three points in the half, and that was thanks to a fumble recovery deep in Penn State territory. The Nittany Lions went into the break up 14-3 in their first game under Bill O’Brien.
Whatever Frank Solich said to the Bobcats at halftime, it obviously got the team on track. Ohio went on to dominate the second half by outscoring Penn State 21-0. The Bobcats won, 24-14, in front of a packed house at Beaver Stadium. It was clear Penn State wasn’t on the same level they have been in the past, but a win over a Big Ten opponent on the road is a huge victory for Ohio.
After being shut down in the first half, the Bobcats offense finished with 499 total yards. Tyler Tettleton finished 31-for-41 through the air for 324 yards. It is also important to note that Ohio did not turn the ball over all game, while the Nittany Lions had three turnovers. The final score of 24-14 meant that my selection of “under” 44.5 for week one was a winner.
Notes of Interest
--Frank Solich isn’t about to let his team think that they can rest on its laurels against New Mexico State after the team’s historic win in Happy Valley. At his press conference earlier this week Solich said, “In a lot of ways, offensively, they will present more problems for us than what Penn State did.” He pointed out that New Mexico State returns eight starters on offense.
--Jason Arkley, Bobcats beat writer for the Athens Messenger, said that Ohio will have the services of safety Xavier Hughes, linebacker Joe Stefanksi, and running back Daz’mond Patterson this Saturday. Those three were all suspended for the team’s first game last weekend. In addition, only two Ohio players sustained minor injuries last week. All in all, the Bobcats go into week two looking quite healthy.
--Looking around Twitter it’s clear that everyone associated with the Ohio football program knows how big a win the Penn State victory truly was for the Bobcats. The fan base has been heaping praise on the Bobcats players every day since the win. This team should be feeling very confident.
--Tyler Tettleton was named the MAC East Player of the Week after Saturday’s performance. Lou Holtz also presented him with a helmet sticker on ESPN late Saturday night. Folks around Athens have known how good Tettleton is for a couple years, but he is starting to get some national recognition now.
--New Mexico State is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games against a team with a winning home record.
--Ohio is 4-1 ATS in their last five nonconference games.
--The “over” is 8-3 in New Mexico State’s last 11 games.
--The under is 4-1 in Ohio’s last five home games.
New Mexico State vs. Ohio College Football Odds
Bookmaker listed Ohio as a 19.5-point home favorite at the open on Sunday evening, but the Bobcats are now favored by 21 points at all the major books. The posted total opened at 58 points, and it has edged higher by a point to 59.
New Mexico State vs. Ohio College Football Picks
New Mexico State is a team that took a big step forward in 2011. The Aggies went 4-9, but they were certainly more competitive than they had been in recent years. Still, New Mexico State lost 44-24 at home against Ohio in 2011. In that game, New Mexico State scored two touchdowns at the end of the game to make the contest look a little closer.
The Aggies defense isn’t good at all right now, and I think Ohio should have its way on offense. Tettleton should have a field day against the New Mexico State secondary. On the other side, New Mexico State is a pass happy team. Ohio’s secondary is very good, and the Bobcats should get a solid pass rush against a one-dimensional offense. This is a dangerous emotional letdown spot for the Bobcats, so I’ll take Ohio -21 only for one unit. I’ll be back with another mid-major betting report before Ohio’s game at Marshall next weekend.
Pick: #312 - Take Ohio -21 for 1 Unit (Saturday, 7 p.m. EST)
Season Results: 1 Win 0 Losses- +1 Unit ($100 profit)
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