American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 11/12/2013
The much-anticipated shootout between Houston and No. 21 Central Florida as the premier matchup in the American Athletic Conference this past Saturday never materialized, but the Cougars did cover the 10.5-point spread on the road in a 19-14 loss. That game was also my AAC pick of the week for three units on Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. I am now 8-3 on the year and +$1,710 on a $100/unit wager. My goal was to deliver a $1,000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season, but I am aiming to double that figure over the next few weeks.
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 12 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.
Saturday, Nov. 16
No. 17 Central Florida (-16.5) vs. Temple Owls
Total Line: 55
UCF continues to churn its way towards the inaugural AAC title with a perfect 4-0 straight up record in conference play that includes victories over the Cougars and No. 20 Louisville. The Knights are 7-1 SU overall and 6-2 against the spread. They are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) on the road this season, and the total has stayed “under” in three of their last five games.
The Owls have posted just one SU victory this season, but they are still a profitable 6-3 ATS. They are coming off a bye after losing to Rutgers 23-20 on Nov. 2. Temple covered as an 11.5-point underdog on the road in that game, and they have now covered in its last five games. The Owls still remain one of lowest-scoring teams in Division IA football with an average of just 22.3 points a game.
Connecticut Huskies vs. SMU Mustangs (-14)
Total Line: 57
The Huskies have been another bottom-feeder in the AAC this year with a 0-8 SU record overall and a 0-4 SU record in conference play. They have not been all that competitive with a 2-6 record ATS, although they did cover as 27.5-point home underdogs in last Friday night’s 31-10 loss to Louisville.
SMU fell to 2-2 SU in conference play with a tough 28-25 loss to Cincinnati this past Saturday as a seven-point road underdog. The Mustangs are now 3-5 on the year both SU and ATS, but they has covered in three of their last four games. The total stayed under the 66.5-point line against the Bearcats after going “over” in the Mustangs’ previous four outings.
Houston Cougars vs. No. 20 Louisville (-16)
Total Line: 57.5
Houston’s loss to UCF was just their second of the season against seven wins. They are a highly-profitable 8-1 ATS, and the total has gone over in four of their last five games. Despite the fact that the Cougars could manage only 14 points in last Saturday’s loss, they are still ranked 21st in the nation in scoring with an average of 38.1 points a game.
The Cardinals have to win out and hope that the Knights trip up a couple of times down the stretch to claim the AAC title, but that late October loss to UCF is the only blemish on a 8-1 SU mark. They are just 4-5 ATS, and the total has stayed under in seven of the nine games. Teddy Bridgewater remains the main attraction with 2,845 yards passing and 24 touchdown throws.
Memphis Tigers (-2.5) vs. South Florida Bulls
Total Line: 40.5
The Tigers snapped a four-game losing streak with a 21-6 victory over D-IAA Tennessee- Martin this past Saturday as 13.5-point favorites at home. They are 2-6 SU overall and 4-4 ATS. Memphis is ranked 28th in the nation in points allowed (21.9) but 111th in scoring with an average of 20.4 points a game. They have scored more than 21 points just twice in their first eight games.
South Florida is just 2-6 SU (4-4 ATS) on the year, but they did beat Cincinnati SU as a 10.5-point home underdog, and they are the only team to cover the spread against Houston this season. The Bulls are another team that has had major problems finding the end zone with an average of just 15.4 points a game. It is little wonder that the total has stayed under in five of their eight games.
AAC Pick of the Week
Cincinnati Bearcats (-1.5) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Total Line: 52
The Bearcats win over SMU this past Saturday raised their overall record to 7-2 SU (4-5 ATS) and 4-1 SU in AAC play. With Houston and Louisville left on the schedule after this week, they are still in position to tie for the conference title if the UCF loses an AAC game along the way. After that ugly loss to the Bulls, Cincinnati has reeled off four straight wins with an average margin of victory of 14.8 points.
Rutgers went into last week’s bye with a 5-3 SU (3-5 ATS) mark that includes a 2-2 SU record in conference play. The Scarlet Knights have beaten the teams they were supposed to this season, but they have failed to show up against the tougher teams they have faced. Rutgers struggled to get past Temple their last time out, and behind a defense that is allowing an average of 28.9 points a game, they will struggle with the Bearcats this Saturday as well.
3-Unit Play Take Cincinnati (-1.5) over Rutgers (Saturday, Nov. 9, 12 p.m.)
Year to Date Record: 8-3 (+ 18 units +$1,710)
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