American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 10/8/2013
Conference play in the newly-formed AAC was in full swing last week. The favorites prevailed with the exception of Cincinnati’s stunning loss to South Florida as a double-digit favorite. I had UCF minus 10.5 points over Memphis as my AAC pick of the week, and while the Knights got the win, they did not cover against the spread. This dropped me to 4-2 on the year on my weekly picks, but I am still up eight units ($740) with the use of Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. My goal is to deliver a $1000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season.
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 7 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by BetOnline.
Thursday, Oct. 10
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. No. 7 Louisville Cardinals (-17)
Total Line: 54.5
The Scarlet Knights come into this AAC showdown with an overall record of 4-1 straight up (2-3 against the spread) and fresh off a wild 55-52 overtime victory over SMU as 3.5-point favorites on the road. It was their fourth straight win after losing to Fresno State 52-51 in overtime as 10-point road underdogs in their season opener.
Louisville ran its record to a perfect 5-0 with a 30-7 rout of Temple this past Saturday, but it could not cover as a 32.5-point road favorite. The total stayed “under” the 58.5-point closing line, and it has now stayed under in four of five games this year. Teddy Bridgewater continues to light it up with 1,562 yards passing and 16 touchdowns while completing 71.7 percent of his throws.
Friday, Oct. 11
Temple Owls vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-21.5)
Total Line: 53
Temple went 4-7 SU overall and 2-5 SU in conference play in its only season in the Big East, and so far this year in its inaugural season in the AAC it is still searching for its first SU victory after five straight losses. The Owls have been outscored by a combined 57 points and they are ranked 119th in the nation in scoring with an average of just 15.8 points a game.
It has been the good, the bad and the ugly for the Bearcats so far in a 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) start. They hammered Purdue 42-7 on opening weekend as 10-point home favorites, but they also lost to Illinois by 35 points as 7.5-point road favorites, and this past Saturday they fell to South Florida 26-20 as 10.5-point favorites on the road.
Saturday, Oct. 12
South Florida Bulls vs. Connecticut Huskies (-5)
Total Line: 44
The Bulls are riding high after last Saturday’s upset over Cincinnati, but they are still just 1-4 SU overall and 2-3 ATS. This is another AAC team that has really struggled to find the end zone this season with an average of 16.8 points a game. South Florida’s passing game is averaging 144.6 yards, and its rushing attack is posting just 120 yards a game.
Connecticut has dropped its first four games SU, and it is 1-3 ATS. However, the Huskies can hang their hat on a couple of solid efforts against a two quality programs. They lost to Maryland 32-21 on Sept. 14 as 4.5-point home underdogs and then threw a major scare into No. 18 Michigan in a 24-21 loss as 18.5-point underdogs at home.
AAC Pick of the Week
Memphis Tigers vs. Houston Cougars (-10.5)
Total Line: 52.5
The Tigers hung tough in last Saturday’s 24-17 loss to UCF, but other than a fairly solid defense that is allowing an average of 19 points a game, this team will continue to struggle to win games this season. The problem is an offense that has only been able to match that total with 19.3 points a game. The Memphis’ passing attack is ranked 100th in the nation, and the running game is ranked 61st. Unless the defense can stand on its head against Houston, the Tigers are going to have a tough time keeping pace.
Houston may not have the explosive offense it did when Case Keenum was under center a couple of years back, but it does have an extremely balanced attack in both passing and running the ball. This has resulted in a perfect 4-0 start both SU and ATS behind a unit that is scoring an average of 43.5 points a game. Add in the fact that the defense is ranked 28th in the country in points allowed and the team as a whole is coming off a bye week, and it’s going to be a long day for Memphis to try and keep this game closer than 11 points.
3-Unit Play Take Houston (-10.5) over Memphis (Saturday, Oct. 12, noon)
Year to Date Record: 4-2 (+ 8 units- $740)
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