The Central Florida Knights needed some late-game heroics to get past Temple this past Saturday to remain undefeated in conference play, but they are now just three wins away from claiming the first ever AAC title starting with this Thursday night’s game against Rutgers. I went with Cincinnati over the Scarlet Knights this past Saturday as my AAC pick of the week, and it paid off with a 52-17 romp by the Bearcats in a game that closed as a “pick”.

This 3-unit play using Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System ran my year-to-date total to +21 units, which equates to a profit of $2,010 on a $100-per-unit bet. My goal was to deliver a $1,000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season, but I am aiming to triple that figure over the remaining three weeks.

The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 13 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.

Saturday, Nov. 23

Memphis Tigers vs. No. 21 Louisville Cardinals (-24.5)  
Total Line: 43

Memphis still has an outside shot at qualifying for a postseason bowl if it can pull off the upset in this contest and win its final two games. The Tigers have won their last two games both straight up and against the spread after suffering through a four-game losing streak. Scoring has been an issue all season long with an average of 20.7 points a game.

Louisville continues to pay the price from an early-season loss to Central Florida that will probably keep it out of a major bowl despite the fact that it was its only loss this year. The Cardinals are 9-1 SU overall but just 4-6 ATS. The total has stayed “under” in eight of the 10 games. Teddy Bridgewater continues to keep his name relevant in the Heisman race with 3,048 yards passing and 24 touchdown throws.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Houston Cougars (-3)    
Total Line: 58

The Bearcats still have an outside shot at winning the first-ever AAC title at 5-1 SU in conference play. They are 8-2 SU overall with a 5-5 record ATS after winning their last five games. A big part of Cincinnati’s success on offense this season has been behind a passing attack that is averaging 306.1 yards a game.

Houston is another team that likes to light it up through the air. Quarterback John O’Korn has thrown for 2,473 yards and 23 touchdowns in relief of David Piland, who was lost for the season due to a concussion. The Cougars are 4-2 SU in conference play and 7-3 SU overall. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Central Florida and Louisville, but they have covered in nine of 10 games this year.

SMU Mustangs (-3) vs. South Florida Bulls  
Total Line: 55

SMU has won three of its last four games SU, and it is 4-1 ATS in its last five outings. The Mustangs are 4-5 both SU and ATS on the year and come into this game with a passing offense that is ranked fifth in the nation with an average of 380.1 yards a game. They have also lit up the scoreboard in those three recent wins with an average of 43.7 points a game.

South Florida fell to 2-7 SU (4-5 ATS) with this past Saturday’s 23-10 loss to Memphis as a 1.5-point home underdog. The Bulls have now scored less than two touchdowns in five games this season, and they are averaging just 14.8 points a game on the year. It also does not help that their defense is giving up an average of 30.3 points a game.

Connecticut Huskies vs. Temple Owls (-8.5)  
Total Line: 50.5

This has been a season to forget for the Huskies with nine losses in nine tries. They are 2-7 ATS, and the total has gone over in six of the nine games. It is extremely hard to win games with an offense that is averaging 16.2 points a game complementing a defense that is giving up an average of 35 points to the opposition.

Temple was just minutes away from pulling off the biggest upset in the AAC this season, but the last second-loss to the Knights dropped it to 1-9 SU overall and 0-6 SU in conference play. The Owls have remained competitive over the past two months with a profitable 6-0 record ATS after failing to cover in three of their first four games.

AAC Pick of the Week

Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. No. 18 Central Florida Knights (-17)   
Total Line: 57.5

Rutgers has beaten the teams it was supposed to this season with a 5-4 SU record heading into this game, but it is just 3-6 ATS after failing to cover in four of its last five games. Ever since beating SMU 55-52 in overtime on Oct. 5, the Scarlet Knights’ offense has struggled to find the end zone with a combined 64 points in their last four outings.

UCF is in prime position to earn a trip to a BCS bowl with three very winnable games left on the plate. The near-miss against Temple should provide the necessary wake-up call for a team that is averaging 455.3 yards and 35.2 points a game on offense while holding teams to just 20.6 points a game on defense. The Knights are 6-3 ATS this season, including a 3-1 ATS record at home. Look for them to score early and often against Rutgers to quickly put this game out of reach.

5-Unit Play Take Central Florida (-17) over Rutgers (Thursday, Nov. 21, p.m.)

Year to Date Record:  9-3 (+ 21 units +$2,010)

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Read more articles by Dave Schwab