American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 10/14/2013
The No. 8 Louisville Cardinals passed their first real test in AAC play after knocking off Rutgers 24-10 last Thursday, but they could not cover the 19.5-point spread. Things get dialed up from here for clearly the best team in the conference with a tilt against 4-1 UCF this Friday night. I made the correct call on Houston’s 25-15 victory over Memphis as a 7.5-point home favorite to improve to 5-2 in my AAC pick of the week. I am now up 11 units ($1040) with the use of Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. My goal is to deliver a $1,000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season. Since we have already hit that goal, let’s go for $2,000!
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 8 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes
Friday, Oct. 18
Central Florida Knights vs. No. 8 Louisville Cardinals (-11)
Total Line: 53
This showdown could probably be considered the AAC title game given the fact it features the new conference’s two best teams. The Knights come in at 4-1 both straight up and against the spread, and they are well-rested after taking last week off. Central Florida is averaging 31.8 points a game while holding teams to 16.6 points a game on defense.
While all the attention in Louisville this season has centered on the play of Heisman hopeful Teddy Bridgewater, and rightfully so, the Cardinals come into this game with the stingiest defense in Division IA. Through its impressive 6-0 SU (3-3 ATS) start, this unit has allowed an average of just 7.3 points a game while the offense under the guidance of Bridgewater has averaged 41 points a game.
Saturday, Oct. 19
SMU Mustangs vs. Memphis Tigers (-2.5)
Total Line: 49
The Mustangs are off to a 1-4 start both SU and ATS, with their only win of the season coming against Middle Tennessee in a 31-30 thriller as 10-point home favorites in Week 2. They did cover their last time out in a wild 55-52 overtime loss to Rutgers on Oct. 5 as 3.5-point home underdogs. The total has gone “over” in four of SMU’s first five games.
Memphis is also off to a 1-4 SU start, but it has been somewhat profitable ATS at 3-2. Last week’s loss to Houston followed another solid effort in a losing cause. The week before, the Tigers gave UCF a run for its money in a 24-17 loss as 9.5-point home underdogs. The total has stayed “under” in all five games this season.
Connecticut Huskies vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-14)
Total Line: 46
Connecticut’s claim to fame this season was a 24-21 loss to Michigan on Sept. 21 as an 18.5-point home underdog. However, other than that moral victory, it has been a long season for the winless Huskies. They come into this game at 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. They have not scored more than 21 points all season long and are averaging just 16.4 points a game.
The Bearcats have been a tough team to figure out during their 4-2 SU start. They are just 2-4 ATS after losing to Illinois 45-17 in Week 2 as 7.5-point home favorites and dropping a 26-20 SU decision to South Florida as 10.5-point road favorites on Oct. 5. This past Saturday, Cincinnati easily handled Temple 38-20, but it could not cover the 20.5-point spread.
BYU Cougars (-9) vs. Houston Cougars
Total Line: 60
The Cougars have reeled off three straight victories both SU and ATS, including a 38-20 win over Georgia Tech this past Saturday as seven-point home favorites. They are now 4-2 on the year SU and ATS playing as an independent. BYU quarterback Taysom Hill has thrown for 1,263 yards and five touchdowns while getting picked off five times as well. He has proven to be a dual-threat with his legs after rushing for a team-high 644 yards in his first six games.
This will be Houston’s toughest test of the season after rolling through its first five games undefeated by a combined score of 199-95. It is also 5-0 ATS, with the total staying under in three of the five games. The Cougars are ranked 20th in the nation in scoring with 39.8 points a game and 22nd on defense in average points allowed (19.0).
AAC Pick of the Week
Army Black Knights vs. Temple Owls (-2)
Total Line: 52
The Black Knights have won two of their last three games SU after suffering through a three-game losing streak earlier in the season. They are now 3-4 both SU and ATS, with the total going over in three of their last five games. This team continues to define what it means to being committed to the run with an average of 352.3 yards a game, which is ranked first in the country.
Temple comes into this matchup still searching for its first win of the season after losing its first six games. It has been competitive at times with a 3-3 record ATS, but overall there are not too many positives. The Owls are ranked near the bottom of D-IA in scoring with an average of 16.5 points a game and racking up a total of just 348 yards of offense a game. The defense has allowed 30 or more points in three of its last four games. While this week’s matchup may be Temple’s best shot at ending this losing streak as a slight favorite at home, it does not mean it will.
3-Unit Play Take Army (+2) over Temple (Saturday, Oct. 19, 1 p.m.)
Year to Date Record: 5-2 (+ 11 units- $1040)
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