Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 13
by Aaron Smith - 11/20/2013
It’s time for the 11th edition of the mid-major betting report. This year the team in focus is the UNLV Rebels. UNLV has had two chances to become bowl eligible, but the Rebels lost close home contests back-to-back against San Jose State and Utah State. I’ll be keeping a close eye on press conferences from the program, beat writers, as well as Twitter feeds all season long. By becoming an expert on the UNLV Rebels, I hope to show how specialization is one of the most profitable sports betting strategies. This report comes a little earlier in the week than normal because UNLV plays Thursday night instead of Saturday this week.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100 per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
The UNLV Rebels were off last week, but their last game was a 28-24 loss at home against Utah State. UNLV led for much of the game, but Utah State scored the game-winning touchdown with 3:56 remaining in that game.
Most of the statistics in the last game were extremely even. Utah State turned the ball over twice, while UNLV only turned it over once. Both teams had 24 first downs. Utah State was 10-for-17 on third-down-conversion attempts, while UNLV was just 6-for-16. Utah State scored touchdowns each time, while UNLV had to settle for a 29-yard field goal on one drive; that ended up being the difference.
UNLV played hard all game against Utah State, and there’s no doubt that this Rebels team has come a very long way since last year when they won just two games. Still, the team really wants at least one more win so they can be eligible for a bowl game. Last game’s selection was Utah State -13.5, which was a loser.
Notes of Interest
-The Rebels play Air Force in Colorado Springs this Thursday night. The weather in Colorado Springs Thursday night doesn’t sound good at all. The current weather forecast calls for a couple inches of snow on Thursday and a temperature dropping through the 20s during this game.
-Both Bobby Hauck and Caleb Herring spoke about the weather not changing the team’s game plan one bit. Hauck said he has told the team they should only worry about the things they can control. He said, “We’ll dress for it, and I think this football team’s mentally tough enough to go and play hard regardless of what the climate is.” Speaking of the weather, Caleb Herring said, “If you let that become a distraction, you’re letting it beat you before the game even starts.”
-UNLV has played Air Force in 17 straight seasons. Air Force leads the all-time series with 13 wins compared to UNLV’s five wins. UNLV did win 38-35 at home last year against Air Force. The winning team in this series is averaging 38 points per game, and the winning team has never scored less than 24 points when these two teams have met. Whoever wins this game is likely going to have to put a decent amount of points on the board.
-Air Force returns just nine starters from last year’s team, so they are very young. The Falcons started the season with a combined 124 starts on their entire roster, which is fewest in the nation.
-UNLV is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a losing home record
-Air Force is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall
-The home team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams
-The “over” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams
UNLV vs. Air Force College Football Odds
The oddsmakers couldn’t decide who to favor in this one. It opened at pick’em. A little bit of money has come in on the Falcons, and Air Force is now favored by a single point at home. The posted total was set at 61.5 at the open, and it has edged down to 61 points.
UNLV vs. Air Force College Football Picks
Air Force has gained at least 300 yards on the ground in each of the last six meetings with UNLV. UNLV’s defense is clearly better than they were in those years, though, and Air Force is just 2-8 so far this year. The Rebels need this game in a big way, while the Falcons don’t have a bowl berth to play for. UNLV’s balanced offense and improving defense should lead them to a hard-fought victory and finally make them bowl eligible.
Pick: #113- Take UNLV +1 for One Unit
Season Results: 2 Wins 8 Losses (-6.2 Units)
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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