The NBA season is still young, and there is no need to start overreacting and making overarching assumptions after only a couple of weeks of basketball. Yes, there have been a few surprises—Michael Carter-Williams is the first name that comes to mind. But six games into the season, the NBA has already presented bettors with a few valuable lessons on how to wager on professional basketball. The first, and most valuable, lesson from the early part of the season is that the best teams in the NBA do not necessarily cover the most spreads. The Indiana Pacers started the year 5-0, while the Miami Heat started 4-2 and the Spurs started 4-1. Most NBA fans and even experts would probably assume that these were the teams at the top of the ATS list.

However, most people might be surprised to find out that none of those squads have the best ATS record in the league. That distinction belongs to the Orlando Magic, a team that is not expected to make the playoffs. Orlando is still perfect against the spread with a 5-0 record. And if you are thinking that the Magic are an aberration and one of the top NBA contenders is second on the ATS list, you would be wrong again. The Phoenix Suns, another team that is not expected to make the playoffs, has a 4-0-1 ATS record to start the year. The million dollar question for bettors is “who will be the best ATS team this season?” Let’s have a closer look at the stats and try to figure it out.

Last season’s ATS records (playoffs included)

9) San Antonio Spurs: 53-48-2
8) Indiana Pacers: 54-46
7) Golden State Warriors: 51-42-1
6) Miami Heat: 58-47
5) New York Knicks: 51-41-2
4) Denver Nuggets: 49-39
3) Oklahoma City: 52-39-2
2) Dallas Mavericks: 48-34
1) Memphis Grizzlies: 57-38-2

Last season there were only nine profitable teams in the NBA. The Dallas Mavericks, who were not even a playoff team, had the second-best ATS record in the entire league. The Memphis Grizzlies, who had the sixth-best SU record in the NBA, were the best ATS team. Of course, the Oklahoma City Thunder, a squad that receives a lot of action from the general public, performed very well ATS-wise. However, there are a few small-market teams that most gamblers would probably never think about wagering on during the season. The Grizzlies, Mavericks, Nuggets Warriors and Pacers, are all squads that are not necessarily drawing tons of action from the general betting public, but they all performed well against the spread last season.

As a bettor, it is much easier to stay away from the marquee teams in the NBA and wager on the underdogs who are receiving the lion’s share of the points. Sure, the Miami Heat will cover spreads this season, but they will also see a large amount of double-digit lines that do not provide much value for bettors looking to make a profit. The Philadelphia 76ers have been eight- and 12-point underdogs during the first five games of the year and covered both spreads easily. The Los Angeles Lakers have already received eight-, 12- and 13-point lines this year, and they covered them all. The important thing to remember is that there is a distinction between SU and ATS records. Most bettors are probably guilty of looking at a very good SU team facing a bad SU squad and just assuming the good team will cover the spread without looking at any other information

This season’s top ATS teams

10) Philadelphia 76ers: 3-2
9) Los Angeles Lakers: 4-2
8) Los Angeles Clippers: 4-2
7) Milwaukee Bucks: 3-1
6) Charlotte Bobcats: 3-1-1
5) Golden State Warriors: 3-1-1
4) Detroit Pistons: 3-1
3) Indiana Pacers: 4-1
2) Phoenix Suns: 4-0-1
1) Orlando Magic: 5-0

The year is still early, so there is no need to make any crazy assumptions with ATS top-10 lists. Many of these teams might not continue their hot starts to the season, but there is an important note to make. Of the top ATS teams so far this year, seven of them are squads that most people would not expected to be on the list. The Pacers, Warriors and Clippers are the only teams that are expected to make the playoffs and contend for a conference title. The Lakers, 76ers, Magic and Suns were expected to be particularly bad. This list will definitely change throughout the year, but the best ATS teams probably won’t be the Miami Heats and San Antonio Spurs of the world. The Bucks and Pistons have excellent value as ATS teams, and they have enough talent to cover spreads but not enough talent to actual be a contender and get noticed by the casual NBA fan and bettor.

Read more articles by George Monroy