Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 5
by Aaron Smith - 9/26/2013
We’re back for the fifth edition of the weekly college football mid-major betting report. This year the team in focus is the UNLV Rebels. The Rebels have found some positive momentum with two consecutive wins in the last two weeks. This week, they’ll be back on the road where they have lost 23 straight games. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Twitter feeds, beat writers, and press conferences from the program. By becoming an expert on the UNLV Rebels, I hope to show how specialization is one of the most profitable sports betting strategies.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100 per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
UNLV blasted Western Illinois 38-7 last weekend. UNLV was certainly impressive in the game, but it was an FCS school, so fans should make sure they keep their enthusiasm under control. Still, Western Illinois was competitive with Minnesota two weeks ago, and UNLV steamrolled Western Illinois last weekend. The Rebels had 284 yards on the ground last week. Most impressive was the fact that four Rebels had at least 50 yards on the ground in the win.
Caleb Herring got the job done as the starting quarterback last week. He seems to be the main man for the Rebels right now. Herring was 14-for-20 through the air for 140 yards. Most importantly, UNLV didn’t turn the ball over at all last week. The defense still allowed 4.8 yards per carry, so the front seven still needs to step up. The secondary picked off two passes in the game. I had no selection on last week’s game.
Notes of Interest
-Taylor Bern, beat writer for the Las Vegas Sun, pointed out this week that it has been a whopping 10 years since UNLV was won three consecutive games. John Robinson was the coach of the Rebels in 2003, and that team won three straight games en route to a 4-1 start to the season. Can the Rebels win a third straight game for the first time in 10 years this weekend? They’ll have to do it on the road in their conference opener against New Mexico this week.
-UNLV punter Logan Yunker was named the Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Week on Monday for his performance this past weekend. Yunker had two punts for more than 50 yards in last week’s win. For the season, Yunker is averaging an impressive 45.6 yards per punt. That’s the best mark in the Mountain West, and it is 11th-best in the nation.
-How about the fact that UNLV had zero penalties called on them in their win over Western Illinois last weekend? The simple fact that they didn’t turn the ball over was huge, but not having a single penalty called on them through a whole game is quite an accomplishment.
-The UNLV Rebels are 9-39-4 ATS in their last 52 road games.
-UNLV is 1-12 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a losing home record.
-New Mexico is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.
-The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.
UNLV vs. New Mexico College Football Odds
Bookmaker opened New Mexico as a small one-point home favorite over UNLV on Sunday. There has been some big money that has come in on the Rebels here, though. UNLV is now a three-point road favorite at most books. The posted total opened at 55 points, but it has edged down to 54 over the course of the week.
UNLV vs. New Mexico College Football Picks
UNLV gets to test just how much momentum they have this weekend. New Mexico isn’t a very good team, but UNLV has lost 23 straight games on the road. Can the Rebels find a way to win on the road? As seen above in the betting trends, the Rebels have been awful ATS on the road in the past few seasons.
New Mexico is all about running the football, and UNLV still has some major problems stopping the run. UNLV has allowed 232 yards per game on the ground so far this year. Kasey Carrier should have a lot of running room in this one for the Lobos. At the same time, I do expect UNLV’s offense to be able to put points on the board against a bad New Mexico defense. New Mexico is giving up 35 points per game so far this year.
I’ve been very cautious with my selections in the first few weeks as I try to get a good handle on this team, but I feel strongly about the total and the side in this one. The strongest pick for me here is on the “over”. I’m going to put a 5-unit play on the over in this one as I expect both offenses to get rolling early and often. In addition, because the Rebels have yet to prove themselves on the road, I’ll make a two-unit play on New Mexico +3.
First Pick: #193- Take UNLV/New Mexico over 54 for 5 Units
Second Pick: #194- Take New Mexico +3 for 2 Units (Saturday September 28, 8:00 pm EST)
Season Results: 0 Wins 3 Losses (-3.3 Units)
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