Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 8
by Aaron Smith - 10/17/2013
It’s time for seventh edition of the weekly college football mid-major betting report. This year the team in focus is the UNLV Rebels. UNLV won its fourth straight game last weekend. The Rebels did it in dramatic fashion. UNLV had won a total of four games in the past two years, and now they have won four straight! The schedule gets tougher from here, so we’ll see if the Rebels can keep it going. I’ll be keeping a close eye on press conferences from the program, beat writers, as well as Twitter feeds all season long. By becoming an expert on the UNLV Rebels, I hope to show how specialization is one of the most profitable sports betting strategies.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100 per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
UNLV coaches would tell you that it wasn’t pretty, but the Rebels did find a way to beat Hawaii and run their winning streak to four. The Rebels looked to be in control of this game in the fourth quarter, but Hawaii scored 20 straight points to take a 37-36 lead with 1:44 left in the game. UNLV drove back down the field, and kicker Nolan Kohorst booted a 44-yard field goal to give the Rebels the win.
Hawaii was able to roll up 454 yards of offense last week, so the Rebels defense didn’t have a particularly strong showing. Hawaii threw for 325 yards against a UNLV secondary that was actually ranked No. 1 in the nation in pass defense before this game. On the positive side, UNLV racked up 579 yards of total offense. The Rebels had 385 yards through the air and 194 yards on the ground. Caleb Herring had another great game. He has been a huge spark for this offense over the last few weeks. Marcus Sullivan, a guy whose return we touched on in last week’s mid-major betting report, came up big with 11 catches in this game.
My selection last week was on the “over” 55.5. The 39-37 final in favor of UNLV made that selection a winner.
Notes of Interest
-Herring has been great first and foremost because he is taking care of the football. During last week’s game, Herring broke the UNLV record for most passes in a row without being picked off. In fact, he tied the Mountain West Conference record of 183 straight passes without an interception before being picked off on his 184th attempt. Herring has thrown an interception on only 2.23 percent of his pass attempts during his career. Randall Cunningham currently has the lowest career interception rate in UNLV history at 2.91 percent.
-UNLV set a school and Mountain West record with 113 total offensive plays last week against Hawaii. That was just two plays short of an all-time NCAA FBS record. Houston holds the record with 115 plays in 2012 against Louisiana Tech. Before the season, the Rebels said they wanted to speed up on offense, and this is great evidence that they have been able to do just that!
-Fresno State will be the Rebels opponent this weekend. Fresno State has won 10-straight regular season games. The Bulldogs have scored at least 40 points in each of those games. In fact, Fresno State is averaging 47.3 points per game during that 10-game winning streak.
-UNLV is 10-39-4 ATS in their last 53 road games.
-Fresno State is just 14-31-1 ATS in their last 36 home games.
-The over is 6-1 in the Rebels last seven games.
-The over is 4-1 in Fresno State’s last five games.
UNLV vs. Fresno State College Football Odds
Fresno State opened as 21-point favorites against UNLV in this one, but the money has poured in on the Bulldogs throughout the week. Fresno State is now listed as high as a 25.5-point favorite at some books. The posted total opened at 72 points, and it has risen to a current level of 73.
UNLV vs. Fresno State College Football Picks
UNLV is on a really nice run, but Fresno State is an entirely different team than UNLV has played during their current winning streak. In fact, the argument could be made that Fresno State is the best team UNLV has played all season. The Bulldogs offense is an absolute machine, with Derek Carr throwing it all over the field. Fresno State’s weakness is their defense. The Bulldogs are allowing 33.4 points per game so far this season.
Both teams should move it up and down the field easily here. I don’t expect either defense to have any answers. I’ll make a two-unit play on over 73 in this one.
Pick: #395- Take UNLV/Fresno State OVER 73 for 2 Units
Season Results: 2 Wins 4 Losses (+1.5 Units)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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