Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 9
by Aaron Smith - 10/31/2013
It’s time for the ninth edition of the weekly college football mid-major report. This year the team in focus is the UNLV Rebels. UNLV got its biggest win in a long time last weekend when they went to Nevada and took down the Wolfpack to win the Fremont Cannon. A win on the road over an opponent that has dominated them in the recent past was huge for this team. Can they keep their momentum going? I’ll be keeping a close eye on press conferences from the program, beat writers, as well as Twitter feeds all season long. By becoming an expert on the UNLV Rebels, I hope to show how specialization is one of the most profitable sports betting strategies.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100 per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
The UNLV Rebels picked up a signature win last week at Nevada. The win at New Mexico earlier this year was nice, but the Rebels winning in Reno against their rival was a major sign of a turnaround underway at this program. UNLV picked up 29 first downs in that game versus only 18 for Nevada. While the Wolfpack did gain 487 yards, it was the Rebels defense stepping up on third down that proved to be the difference. Nevada was just 2 for 15 on third-down conversion attempts. The Wolfpack were forced to settle for three field goals.
Caleb Herring was tremendous once again for the Rebels. Herring threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He had 335 yards passing. Herring has been a tremendous spark for UNLV in 2013. Tim Cornett was listed as doubtful for the game, but he played and ran for 122 yards. UNLV has done a great job of late winning the turnover battle, and they did that again in this one. The single biggest reason that UNLV has been much better over the past few weeks has been their lack of penalties and turnovers. Last week’s selection on Nevada -5 was a loser.
Notes of Interest
-To underscore just how important last weeks’ win at Nevada was, the UNLV Rebels have only taken the Freemont Cannon away from Nevada in Reno once in program history. UNLV’s win last week ended an eight-game losing streak against Nevada. The school held a rally this past week where the public was able to attend as UNLV players and coaches painted the Freemont Cannon red. The current level of interest in the UNLV football program is something that hasn’t been seen in many years.
-UNLV will host San Jose State for homecoming this week. Both UNLV and San Jose State are 3-1 in the Mountain West Conference heading into this game, so this game is going to take on extra importance this season.
-San Jose State has scored 122 points in their last three games. The Spartans are led by star quarterback David Fales. Fales has 2,425 passing yards already this year.
-UNLV has trailed or been tied in four of their five wins so far this year. San Jose State has three straight come-from-behind wins. If a team gets behind in this one, they definitely shouldn’t be counted out!
-San Jose State has been a covering machine over the last three years. The Spartans are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall.
-The “over” is 11-3 in the Spartans last 14 games as a favorite.
-The over is 9-5 in UNLV’s last 14 home games.
San Jose State vs. UNLV College Football Odds
The opening line for this game had San Jose State -2.5. As the week has moved along, more money has been coming in on the Spartans here. San Jose State is now a four-point favorite at most books. The posted total opened at 67 points, and it has since edged down to 66 at most books.
San Jose State vs. UNLV College Football Picks
San Jose State is a prolific passing team, but the Spartans defense isn’t very good this year. UNLV’s secondary has only seen one other quarterback this year as good as Fales, and that was against Derek Carr and Fresno State. The Rebels secondary struggled in that game, and I think they’ll struggle again here. At the same time, UNLV’s offense is really playing well right now, and the Rebels should score a lot of points on a San Jose State team that is No. 100 in the nation in total defense.
Both of these teams like to get off a lot of snaps by speeding up the game. There should be a lot of points in this one. I’ll make a two-unit play on the over 66 in this game.
Pick: #377- Take San Jose State/UNLV OVER 66 for 2 Units
Season Results: 2 Wins 6 Losses (-2.9 Units)
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