College Basketball Handicapping: Best and Worst ATS Teams
by George Monroy - 2/20/2014
The college basketball season is about to really heat up in a couple of weeks when March Madness officially begins. Up until this point, most bettors probably casually follow the sport and can name the big stars on the most-popular teams, but once the conference tournaments start gamblers will be exposed to some great players and teams they may not know about.
The NCAA Tournament provides ample opportunity for bettors to remain in action all hours of the day, and it even brings the novice bettors and fans out of the woodwork—chances are your mom even fills out a bracket and follows all of the action. However, before we jump right into the madness that is the NCAA Tournament, let’s do a little homework and take a look at the best and worst ATS teams in the nation. Filling out a bracket is one thing, but actually picking ATS winners is an entirely different animal.
Top 10 ATS Teams
Cleveland State: 19-6; 76 percent
Wichita State: 18-6-1: 75 percent
Villanova: 17-7; 70 percent
New Mexico State: 7-3; 70 Percent
Tulsa: 15-7; 68 percent
Pepperdine: 16-8; 66 percent
SUNY-Buffalo: 13-6; 68 percent
Portland: 17-8-1; 68 percent
UCLA: 16-8; 66 percent
Duke: 17-9; 65 percent
The top ATS teams are filled with a few squads that most bettors might not have expected to be at the top of the list—actually there are a couple of schools that most fans have never even heard of. Cleveland State and SUNY-Buffalo are two teams that probably received little action throughout the year but were a goldmine for bettors. Wichita State and Villanova have been in the national spotlight all season and are two teams that bettors should continue wagering heading into the NCAA Tournament. Both squads are a bit under-the-radar and should present bettors with more than a few excellent gambling opportunities.
AP Top 10 ATS Records
1) Syracuse: 13-8-1; 62 percent
2) Florida: 10-9-3; 52 percent
3) Wichita State: 18-6-1; 75 percent
4) Arizona: 14-10; 58 percent
5) Duke: 17-9; 65 percent
6) San Diego State: 13-9; 59 percent
7) Cincinnati: 11-10; 52 percent
8) Kansas: 13-12-1; 52 percent
9) Villanova: 17-7; 70 percent
10) Saint Louis: 9-14; 39 percent
The top-ranked schools in the nation have not done as well against the spread, mostly because some of the higher-profile teams face large, double-digit lines on a regular basis. Syracuse and Duke are performing surprisingly well ATS for being larger programs that are always on the average bettors’ radar. Florida and Kansas, however, will probably continue to struggle in the ATS realm even though both are expected to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Finding a spot to take a large underdog against either school may be the best way to approach both teams during the last few games of the regular season.
Bottom 10 ATS Teams
Central Florida: 4-13; 23 percent
South Alabama: 6-16; 27 percent
Colorado State: 6-15; 28 percent
Indiana-Purdue: 7-15; 31 percent
Akron: 7-15; 31 percent
Oakland: 8-17; 32 percent
Notre Dame: 8-15-2; 34 percent
Northwestern: 9-17; 34 percent
Eastern-Illinois: 8-15-1; 34 percent
Texas State: 7-13; 35 percent
The good news for bettors is that the worst ATS teams in the nation are schools that most people were probably not wagering on in the first place. There is no AP Top 25-ranked team in on the list, and most of the schools will not end up making the cut for the NCAA Tournament in a few weeks. Squads like Notre Dame or Northwestern might be tempting to wager on in certain situations, but there are much more favorable schools that are actually covering spreads on a regular basis.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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