College Bowl Lines: Most Important Line Moves for NCAA Betting
by Trevor Whenham - 12/17/2014
During the regular season there is a lot to be learned from spotting odd line movement in college football. It allows us to spot situations in which sharp money has a strong preference is a game - something that can be particularly useful to know if the opinion of that sharp money is different than the public opinion. That's a way that value can be found for bettors. In bowl games, the amount of time bettors have to ponder games and make their bets means that line movement can be less meaningful, but it is still very worthwhile to look for line movement that is surprising - and to consider what it means.
Here are eight teams that have seen their lines move in significant and noteworthy ways:
Utah State: The Aggies have drawn more than 70 percent of all bets in the New Mexico Bowl, yet the line has dropped from 11.5 to 10.5. This isn't a hugely significant move because it hasn't move through a significant key number, but it is still worth noting - and UTEP is worth a closer look. UTEP appears to have drawn some sharp action - perhaps in response to the fact that Utah State is on their fourth QB of the year.
Utah: The Utes had a surprising year in the Pac-12 and are deservedly favored in the Las Vegas Bowl against Colorado State. They have drawn more than 60 percent of bets, yet the line had dropped from five points to the key number of three. That means that the Rams are worth a look. It's somewhat surprising given that Colorado State lost a coach to Florida, but Utah's Kyle Whittingham is at the heart of plenty of coaching speculation, too, so there are distractions on both sides.
UNC: The Tar Heels have drawn 70 percent of bets in the Quick Lane Bowl, yet the line has dropped from 3.5 to the key number of three. It's a small but significant move and a sign that Rutgers is worthy of some attention here. There is a strong betting bias against the Big Ten this year, so North Carolina could be getting more attention than they deserve as a result.
Boston College: Nearly three-quarters of bets have come in on the Eagles, yet the line has dropped from the key number of three to 2.5. That means that Penn State is worth a look here in the Pinstripe Bowl - or at least that sharp money thinks that they are. Neither of these teams is particularly good - or at least not particularly consistent. Penn State has better coaching, though, and could be victims of the anti-Big Ten bias as well.
LSU: Nearly two-thirds of bets have been on LSU in their Music City Bowl date with Notre Dame, yet the line has crept down from 7.5 to the key number of seven. That's a sign that sharp money has been tilted towards Notre Dame and that they are worth a look as a result. Notre Dame had a very rough second half of the season, and the media has been all over that. Combine that with the standard SEC bias and it is no surprise that bettors are hitting the Tigers hard. LSU hasn't been consistently strong themselves, though, and there could be some distraction around the program as Les Miles flirts with Michigan.
Arizona: Almost two-thirds of the bets have come in on the Wildcats, yet the line has dropped from 4.5 to 3.5 in the Fiesta Bowl. That means that sharp money has hit Boise State, and they are worth a look. The Broncos have a history of shining in bowl games. Arizona has played a tougher schedule by far, but they aren't particularly consistent, and could be in for a letdown after a resounding beatdown in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Oregon: The situation here is a bit different than the ones before it. Just under half of the betting action has come in on the Ducks, yet the line has climbed from 8 to 9.5. A move of a point and a half is reasonably significant - especially when a minority of bets have moved the line. It's an indication that sharp money likes the Ducks - and that they could be worth a good look as a result.
Miami: This is the biggest line movement we have seen - and not in a predictable way. Miami has drawn just over half of the action in early Independence Bowl betting, yet the line opened with Miami as a one-point underdog to South Carolina, and now they are four-point favorites. A five-point movement when action is essentially balanced is a very good indication that sharp money has a very strong preference for the Hurricanes.
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