NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, December 12 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/11/2014
Busy schedule on Friday night with 12 games on the NBA schedule. WagerWeb is offering live betting on the two ESPN games: Portland at Chicago and L.A. Lakers at San Antonio. Doesn't it bother you that the Lakers are on national TV so much? Were the television executives not aware of how bad that team was going to be this season? I guess it's still entertaining to see Kobe Bryant shoot 30 times a game and make about 10 of them. Here is a look at every game on the schedule with several key injuries to monitor.
Trail Blazers at Bulls (TBA)
No line here because of the status of Bulls All-Star center Joakim Noah. He missed Wednesday's 105-80 win over Brooklyn with an ankle problem. Noah hasn't really been right all year coming off knee surgery. Taj Gibson, who played great against Brooklyn, would start if Noah can't go again. I'd say the Blazers come off a surprising loss Wednesday in Minnesota, but I pretty much called that as a letdown game. Portland turned the ball over 20 times and shot a season-low 38.8 percent. The Blazers beat the visiting Bulls 105-87 on Nov. 21. Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol and Kirk Hinrich all missed that one.
Key trends: Portland has covered six of the past seven meetings. The "over/under" has gone over in five of Chicago's past six home games.
Early lean: Wait on Noah.
Clippers at Wizards (+3, 202)
This line surprises me a bit. I understand that the Clippers are red-hot in winning nine straight. The key to this team is scoring 100 points. The Clippers are 15-1 when scoring at least 100 and just 1-4 when they do not. Washington is a very good team, and I would think it deserves to be a slight home favorite, although clearly the Eastern Conference is weaker than the West. The Wizards have won two straight and six of seven. Great TV (League Pass!) watching Chris Paul and John Wall go at it.
Key trends: The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their past five on the road. The under is 4-0 in Washington's past five after a win.
Early lean: Washington and over.
Magic at Hawks (TBA)
No opening line here because of the status of Orlando's best player, center Nikola Vucevic. The Magic lost 91-89 at home to Washington on Wednesday on a Bradley Beal buzzer-beater. Vucevic, arguably the best center in the East, missed his fifth straight game with a back sprain and is questionable here. Atlanta won its eighth straight game Wednesday, dumping the 76ers 95-79. It's the franchise's longest winning streak since the 1997-98 season when it started 11-0. Forward Mike Scott, a key guy off the bench, missed the game with flu-like symptoms.
Key trends: Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 5-1 in Atlanta's past six at home vs. teams with a losing road record.
Early lean: Hawks should win going away as I don't expect Vucevic to play.
Knicks at Celtics (TBA)
No line here because of the status of Knicks star Carmelo Anthony, who has to be regretting re-signing with this terrible team. The Bulls, however, have to be thrilled they didn't get Anthony because he has a knee problem that doesn't seem to be going away, and he's reportedly out indefinitely now. As if the season could get any worse for the Knicks. They bring a 10-game skid into this one. Also, J.R. Smith missed the last game with an injury and is questionable. Boston has lost two straight, falling to a bad Hornets team on Wednesday despite Rajon Rondo's triple-double.
Key trends: The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 8-1 in Boston's past nine Friday games.
Early lean: Take Boston regardless of number and under.
76ers at Nets (TBA)
I'm not sure Philadelphia has a player good enough to warrant a TBA, so this is for Nets starting guard Joe Johnson -- whom the team is reportedly shopping . He has missed the past two games with the flu. Center Brook Lopez remains out, and forward Andrei Kirilenko is being traded to these 76ers on Thursday in what is a salary dump. The Nets will receive Brandon Davies. Brooklyn also will send Philadelphia a 2020 second-round pick, and the 76ers will have the right to swap second-round picks with the Nets in 2018. The trade will save the Nets about $12 million in salary and luxury taxes. Kirilenko is due $3.3 million this season.
Key trends: The home team has covered five of the past seven meetings. The under is 8-1 in Brooklyn's past nine.
Early lean: Brooklyn in a rout as I expect Johnson back.
Pacers at Raptors (-9, 201)
Toronto's only two losses in the past five games are to Cleveland, so the Raptors will be glad to face someone else. The Raptors blew a 14-point third-quarter lead in Tuesday's loss in Cleveland. Toronto had won 39 straight games when leading after three quarters. Indiana has lost six straight games. For some reason, Donald Sloan, once the team's starting point guard, didn't play a minute in Wednesday's loss to the Clippers. He's not hurt.
Key trends: The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings. Toronto has covered the past four.
Early lean: Toronto and under.
Hornets at Grizzlies (-9, 189.5)
Is disappointing Charlotte starting to turn things around? The Hornets have won two straight, albeit against the Knicks and Celtics. The big news in Wednesday's win over Boston was the return of forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist from injury. He had missed the previous 12 games with a stress reaction in his right foot. MKG finished with nine points and six rebounds in 18 minutes. Memphis beat Charlotte in a very ugly 71-69 game on Nov. 1. Hornets coach Steve Clifford benched Lance Stephenson in the fourth quarter of that one, but Stephenson has been playing much better of late.
Key trends: Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its past six at home. The under is 4-1 in the Hornets' past five on the road.
Early lean: Huge on the under. Take Memphis.
Thunder at Timberwolves (+10, 205)
The Thunder had a big one at home against Cleveland on Thursday night. It would not surprise me at all if they rest Kevin Durant in this one to be careful with his healing broken foot. If you are going to do it, do it on the road against a team you can beat regardless. Russell Westbrook's injury really isn't a risk, so he should play here. Minnesota ended a six-game skid with Wednesday's 90-82 win over Portland behind 23 points and 10 rebounds from rookie Andrew Wiggins. I'd enjoy seeing him guard Durant.
Key trends: OKC is 1-6 ATS in its past seven in Minnesota. The over is 8-0 in Minnesota's past eight on Friday.
Early lean: I love this line -- take the points.
Cavaliers at Pelicans (+3, 205.5)
Potentially huge letdown game for the Cavs after facing Durant and the Thunder on Thursday. The two best players in the NBA will be on display here -- maybe -- in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Be fun to see if they ever guard each other. I'd imagine both would like the challenge. This line is probably going to be off the board by the time you read this because LeBron was questionable as of this writing with a knee injury for Thursday's game. I'd be stunned if he didn't face Durant but not surprised at all if he sits in this one then. Davis hurt his toe in Wednesday's loss in Dallas but is fine.
Key trends: The Pelicans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 6-1 in their past seven on Friday.
Early lean: Obviously this line will be in flux, but I definitely can see New Orleans winning outright.
Pistons at Suns (+8.5, 202)
Not that I expect it to matter much over the course of the season, but the Pistons could see the season debut of their big free-agent acquisition Friday. Don't get too excited, I'm talking about Jodie Meeks. He has been out with a back injury but has been practicing and should play. Detroit could use all the help it can get as it's on a 13-game losing streak. A defeat here ties the franchise record. Phoenix has lost three straight but won 88-86 in Detroit on Nov. 19. The Suns blew an 85-77 lead with 1:52 left, but then Eric Bledsoe bailed them out with the game-winning bucket.
Key trends: Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its past seven. The under has hit in 10 of Phoenix's past 12 vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Suns and over.
Heat at Jazz (+2, 192.5)
Miami has lost five of six and fell 102-82 in Denver on Wednesday. I don't expect a great effort here because it's the end of a five-game road trip, and that's usually when guys are looking forward to getting home. Utah surprised San Antonio on Tuesday, 100-96, to end a nine-game losing streak. Utah shot at least 50 percent from the field for just the fourth time this season, going 40 of 80 from the floor. The Jazz improved to 3-1 in those games.
Key trends: Utah has covered one of its past 10 on Friday. The under is 4-0 in Miami's past four on the road.
Early lean: Utah and over.
Lakers at Spurs (TBA)
TBA here because of the status of, well, everyone of importance on San Antonio. Gregg Popovich was up to his old tricks in Wednesday's win over the Knicks, as Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard all sat. Parker and Leonard are actually injured and could miss this game, but Duncan and Ginobili should play. The Lakers beat Sacramento 98-95 on Tuesday behind 32 from Bryant. The Spurs beat the Lakers 93-80 in L.A. on Nov. 14. Kobe was just 1-for-14 for 9 points. That was his worst shooting percentage (7.1 percent) in any game in which Bryant had at least 10 shots.
Key trends: The Spurs have covered seven of the past nine meetings. The under is 5-0 in L.A.'s past five overall.
Early lean: Spurs should roll.
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