NBA Odds and Predictions: Saturday, November 15 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/14/2014
Dear Chicago Bulls fans: Get used to daily Derrick Rose injury reports as well as questions every game on whether he will play or not. It's now clear the 26-year-old Rose is never going to play a full 82-game season again (to be fair, LeBron James never has). The guy just can't stay healthy, and it's a shame because he looked like a potential all-time great when he was the youngest NBA MVP in history a few years ago. The Rose Watch is on again for Saturday's game. Here's a look at every matchup on the schedule that night.
Magic at Wizards (-9.5, 191.5)
Second of a back-to-back for Orlando as it hosted Milwaukee on Friday night before flying north. There's an outside chance the Magic's Victor Oladipo debuted Friday or in this one off a facial fracture in the preseason. The Magic lost 105-98 at home to Washington on Oct. 30. John Wall had 30 points 12 assists to lead the Wizards, who had all five starters in double figures. It was their fifth straight win over Orlando. Nikola Vucevic had 23 points and 12 boards for the Magic. Orlando trimmed a 17-point Wizards lead to two late, but Wall hit a key layup to preserve the win. Washington improved to 3-0 at home with Wednesday's 107-103 win over Detroit. Wall had another huge game with 27 points and 11 assists. He's stepping up with Bradley Beal out.
Key trends: Orlando has failed to cover its past six in Washington. The "over/under" has gone under in nine of the Magic's past 11 playing in the second of a back-to-back.
Early lean: Few too many points. Take Orlando and the under.
Jazz at Raptors (-9.5, 200)
Utah will be playing the second of a back-to-back as it visited the struggling Knicks on Friday. Toronto will be a bit ornery after suffering its first home loss of the season Thursday night, falling 100-93 to Chicago in a battle of Eastern Conference leaders. Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan struggled for the second straight game. DeRozan, who shot 4 for 15 in Tuesday's win over Orlando, went 3 for 17 against Chicago. The Raptors trailed by as many as 18 vs. Chicago.
Key trends: Utah is 1-4 ATS in its past five in the second of a back-to-back. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
Early lean: Give the points and go under.
Hawks at Cavaliers (-9, 210)
Second of a back-to-back for Atlanta as it hosted LeBron James' former Heat team on Friday. The Cavaliers were in Boston, so both will have to travel to Ohio. The Hawks played again without starting forward DeMarre Carroll against the Heat, and I wouldn't expect him here. Carroll averages 12.0 points and 6.3 rebounds in 33.8 minutes a night. Top reserve Mike Scott was likely to return from an injury Friday.
Key trends: Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its past seven in the second of a back-to-back. The over is 5-1 in Cleveland's past six vs. the East.
Early lean: Hawks and over.
Pacers at Bulls (TBA)
Obviously no line here because of Rose. He went down late in Thursday's big win in Toronto with what is being called a hamstring issue, although obviously all Bulls fans gasped and expected it to be another knee issue. After the game, Rose said: "I don't think it's that serious." He did seem to be walking around OK. Still, I'd be stunned if he plays in this game. Chicago has a really tough seven-game road trip starting Monday, so it will want to save Rose. The Bulls can beat Indiana without him. It's the second of a back-to-back for the injury-ravaged Pacers as they hosted Denver on Friday night.
Key trends: The home team has covered the past five meetings. The under is 5-1 in the past six in Chicago.
Early lean: Go under regardless.
Pistons at Grizzlies (-10, 186)
Detroit had to play in Oklahoma City on Friday night. Memphis won a thriller against visiting Sacramento on Thursday to improve to 8-1. Courtney Lee hit a reverse layup at the buzzer for a 111-110 victory. Memphis rallied from a 26-point hole -- the biggest in franchise history -- and was still down 17 points with just over seven minutes left. The Grizzlies outscored the Kings 35-19 in the fourth quarter, and they hit 63 percent of their shots in winning an 18th straight home game.
Key trends: The Pistons are 1-8 ATS in the past nine meetings. The under is 8-2 in the Grizzlies' past 10 at home.
Early lean: The Pistons haven't been good on the road, but this could be a letdown and lookahead game for Memphis off that draining win -- even with Friday off -- and a big one vs. Houston on Monday. Take the points.
Timberwolves at Mavericks (-10.5, 210)
Advantage Dallas here as Minnesota had to play in New Orleans on Friday night. The Wolves played without Thaddeus Young, and he will sit here as well after his mother passed away. The Mavericks put on a clinic Thursday night in obliterating Philadelphia 123-70, the biggest win in franchise history. Dirk Nowitzki scored 21 points in only 20 minutes to lead five players scoring in double figures. Every single Mavericks player scored, and all but one also had a rebound. It was a laughable 38-10 after one quarter and 73-29 at halftime.
Key trends: The Mavs have covered 12 of their past 14 against the West. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Dallas.
Early lean: Dallas and over.
Spurs at Kings (TBA)
OK, we are on Gregg Popovich Sit Alert here as San Antonio played on Friday night at the Lakers. Usually playing the defending NBA champions will get any team fired up, but I wonder if the Kings will be flat after blowing a 26-point lead at an excellent Memphis team on Thursday and allowing a game-winning layup at the buzzer. The Kings dominated the game throughout and were still holding a 17-point lead with just over seven minutes left. Ben McLemore clanked two free throws with less than a second left to set up the winning Grizzlies layup. It was the Kings' third straight loss, all on the road.
Key trends: The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in the past seven in Sacramento. The over is 5-1 in the Kings' past six overall.
Early lean: I do think Pop sits someone and believe the Kings are fired up in their return home and win outright.
Nets at Trail Blazers (-8, 208)
Rare Saturday matchup where neither team is playing in a back-to-back. Brooklyn is 0-2 on its three-game West Coast trip, falling 107-99 at Golden State on Thursday in the second of a back-to-back. Brooklyn looked gassed after halftime as it fell behind by 15 in the third quarter and couldn't recover. The Nets went 6-14 in the second game of back-to-back sets last season. Portland won 130-113 at Denver on Wednesday without forward Nicolas Batum. He's not going to play here. Portland swept the season series over Brooklyn last season, 2-0, outscoring it by 54 points. The Nets are 6-33 all-time in Portland.
Key trends: The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their past six after a loss. The over is 4-0 in Portland's past four.
Early lean: End of trip usually means tired team. Take Portland and the over.
Hornets at Warriors (-10, 200)
I don't expect Charlotte to have much in the tank here after playing in Phoenix on Friday, and the Hornets entered that winless on the road. The Hornets played the Suns without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and he's out here. Lance Stephenson and Gary Neal were questionable. Golden State ended a two-game skid with Thursday's 107-99 home win over Brooklyn. Klay Thompson scored 25 points, and Draymond Green had 17 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Green again started for the injured David Lee, who will be out again.
Key trends: Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its past six against teams with a losing record. The over is 7-2 in the Warriors' past nine playing on one day of rest.
Early lean: I expect a Warriors rout, so give the points. Go over.
Suns at Clippers (-7.5, 210)
Be surprised if this isn't the highest-scoring game of the night. Phoenix had to travel to Los Angeles after hosting Charlotte on Friday night. The Clippers' defense has been much worse than last season, and their rebounding is terrible. Something is off thus far. I wonder if Blake Griffin will be distracted here after being charged Wednesday on one count of misdemeanor battery related to an incident in a Las Vegas nightclub last month. Phoenix won the first meeting with the Clippers last season, but then L.A. won the final three. The Clippers are the only winless ATS team in the NBA.
Key trends: L.A. is 0-9 ATS in its past nine home games. The road team has covered the past four meetings.
Early lean: Los Angeles should have way more energy than Phoenix as the Clippers haven't played since Monday's ugly 89-85 home loss to San Antonio. Give the points here and go over.
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