NBA Odds and Predictions: Thursday, December 11 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/10/2014
It's one of those games you circled on the NBA schedule back in the spring in the TNT opener on Thursday night as the Magic-Bird rivalry of this generation is renewed for the first time this season when LeBron James and Kevin Durant square off. Certainly they could meet in the NBA Finals for the second time as the Cavaliers now look like the East's best team while the Thunder are climbing the Western Conference standings since Durant's return from a broken foot. Here's a look at that game and the TNT nightcap, the only two games on Thursday's schedule.
Cavaliers at Thunder (-3, 204.5)
Before the season, I wasn't convinced that Durant would be back from his injury for this game, but you can be certain that the TNT executives are doing jumping jacks that he is. True, the Thunder play again on Friday night but no way -- right!? -- that Coach Scott Brooks sits either Durant or Russell Westbrook against LeBron. This is a rare regular-season game that matters.
While Durant has four scoring championships to LeBron's one and is the reigning NBA MVP, James has four MVP Awards, is the Sportsbook.ag favorite for No. 5, and James' Cavaliers are the overall favorites to win an NBA title, which would be LeBron's third. While Carmelo Anthony surprisingly has had the upper hand on James during the regular season in their careers, James dominates Durant. LeBron's teams are 10-3 against Durant's. James averages 28.9 points (.536 shooting), 6.6 assists, 6.4 rebounds and 2.3 steals in those 13. Durant averages 29.2 points (.483 shooting), 3.2 assists and 6.7 rebounds. Of course James leads 4-1 in playoff matchups as the Heat handled the Thunder in the 2012 Finals.
Cleveland is rampaging at the moment, beating Toronto 105-101 on Tuesday for its eighth straight win. LeBron led with 35 points and hit the tiebreaking 3-pointer with 48 seconds left. His next 3-pointer will break the franchise record for career made, which seems somewhat hard to believe. He's tied with Mark Price at 802. James' 35 points snapped an 11-game streak where he hadn't reached 30, his longest since his rookie year. The Cavs played without reserve guard Mike Miller for the third straight game with a concussion.
Oklahoma City might be the best 8-13 team in NBA history since of course the Thunder have played most of the season without Durant and Westbrook. Since Durant returned, the Thunder are 3-1 and have won three straight. They blew out Milwaukee 114-101 on Tuesday in Durant's first home game of the season. He had 23 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in 29 minutes. Westbrook had 28 points. The 114 points were a season high, and OKC shot better than 50 percent from the field for only the second time all season.
Key trends: The Thunder have covered four straight at home. The "over/under" has gone under in Cleveland's past six following an ATS loss. The under is 6-1 in OKC's past seven at home.
Early lean: This line surprises me. Durant can't play heavy, heavy minutes yet, and the Cavs are brimming with confidence. Take the Cavs and over.
Rockets at Kings (TBA)
Second of a back-to-back for Houston as it had to play at the NBA's best team, Golden State, on Wednesday night, without guys like Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, Isaiah Canaan and Francisco Garcia. Even James Harden was iffy with back spasms.
Normally this would be a great matchup of perhaps the two best centers in the NBA: the Rockets' Howard and Kings' DeMarcus Cousins. However, Howard was expected to miss his 10th straight game Wednesday with a back injury. Cousins has something scary called viral meningitis and might not play again the rest of this month. The Rockets have remained a good team without Howard, but the Kings stink without Cousins.
The Kings lost at the terrible Lakers 98-95 on Tuesday without Cousins. Darren Collison had 26 points and Rudy Gay 23 for Sacramento, which had only 14 points in the fourth quarter when it was outscored by six. Reggie Evans started for the second straight game at center for Cousins; Ryan Hollins started the previous five. Evans had eight points and 14 rebounds, and the Kings were plus-6 with him on the court. They dropped to 2-5 without Cousins in this stretch.
Sacramento visited Houston on Nov. 26 and lost 102-89. Cousins had 29 points, 17 rebounds and six assists. Harden had 26 points, eight assists and seven rebounds and the Rockets had only four turnovers. Sacramento turned it over 21 times, leading to 32 Houston points. I take little from that game. Howard and starting Rockets point guard Patrick Beverley didn't play. Neither did Sacramento's starting backcourt of Collison and Gay. The Kings have lost three in a row overall to Houston and lost the most recent meeting at home.
Key trends: Houston is 4-1 ATS in its past five in the second of a back-to-back. The Kings are 1-4 ATS in their past five at home. The under is 7-1 in Sacramento's past eight at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in the past eight in Sacramento.
Early lean: No surprise a TBA here with so many Houston question marks. I think the Kings win outright here against a tired, short-handed Rockets team. If Harden doesn't play as well, then I don't think there's any doubt. Go under regardless.
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