NBA Odds and Predictions: Tuesday, November 25 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/24/2014
Part of me wants to simply exclude Chicago Bulls games in these stories going forward. I must admit I'm a bit of Bulls fan, but I certainly don't let that affect my picks. Frankly, I'm getting tired of the daily Derrick Rose Injury Watch. The guy is just never going to be the MVP-caliber player he was because he's brittle. It's a shame, but it is what it is. The Rose Watch is on again Tuesday night as Chicago has a tough second of a back-to-back in Denver. Here's a look at all five games on Tuesday's schedule. Three games opened at TBA because of injury questions.
Hawks at Wizards (-6.5, 199.5)
Atlanta has been off since ending a two-game skid on Friday with a 99-89 home win over the lousy Pistons. Jeff Teague had a season-high 28 points. The Hawks did blow a 19-point lead at one point, however. Starting forward DeMarre Carroll (groin) had 10 points with seven rebounds after missing four games due to a groin injury. I think Washington is the best team in the East right now, and the Wizards have won two straight, both by double digits. I thought the Wiz would be flat Saturday in Milwaukee after a big home win over Cleveland, but Washington won by 11. Well the Wizards were flat at first, falling behind by 15 points. Paul Pierce had his best game of the season with 25 points and 10 rebounds. Washington won last season's series 3-1 and has won three straight vs. Atlanta at home.
Key trends: Atlanta is 1-7 ATS in its past eight following an ATS win. Washington is 1-5 ATS in its past six after a win. Atlanta has covered just one of the past nine meetings. The over is 6-2 in the past eight.
Early lean: Washington and over.
Warriors at Heat (TBA)
The TBA here is again for Miami's Dwyane Wade, who has missed six straight games with a hamstring injury. Miami ended a three-game skid without Wade on Sunday night with a 94-93 win over Charlotte. Mario Chalmers had 20 points and 10 assists, and he's really putting up some nice numbers with Wade out. Heat starting point guard Norris Cole sat out vs. the Hornets, his second straight game missed with a dislocated finger. And big man Chris Andersen left in the first quarter with a right ankle sprain. The Warriors have won five in a row. Center Andrew Bogut left Sunday's win in Oklahoma City in the first quarter with a right orbital contusion and did not return. Reserve guard Leandro Barbosa left the game with a right knee sprain and didn't return.
Key trends: Miami has failed to cover its past four at home. Golden State has covered four of the past six meetings. The under is 5-1 in Golden State's past six on the road.
Early lean: Have to wait on Wade, but I doubt he plays Warriors should win outright.
Pistons at Bucks (TBA)
Detroit might be the worst team in the league when it plays away from home. The Pistons enter this one 1-6 on the road and with a four-game losing streak overall (two on road). They haven't scored more than 93 points in the skid. It's not clear whether starting point guard Brandon Jennings will play here. He missed the fourth quarter of Friday's loss in Atlanta with a hyperextended left thumb. He's questionable. D.J. Augustin would start in his place. Milwaukee has lost two straight, but against good teams Toronto and Washington. The Bucks lost 98-95 at Auburn Hills, Mich., on Nov. 7. Jennings had 15 points and six assists in that one.
Key trends: The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10.
Early lean: Bucks roll here.
Kings at Pelicans (-5.5, 200.5)
Sacramento has won three of four, with that loss coming at home last Tuesday to New Orleans, 106-100 in the second of a back-to-back for the Pelicans. In the matchup of Kentucky star big men you'd have to call it a draw with Anthony Davis scoring 28 points and grabbing nine boards while DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points and 17 rebounds. Davis had a career-high 43 points in New Orleans' last game, a 12-point win in Utah on Saturday. He's the best player in the NBA right now and should be the MVP favorite with how LeBron James' Cavaliers are scuffling. New Orleans is without guard Eric Gordon indefinitely with a torn labrum. That means Austin Rivers likely becomes a starter. Center Omer Asik has missed four straight games with a back injury and is questionable.
Key trends: The over is 7-0 in the past seven meetings on New Orleans. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.
Early lean: Kings and over.
Bulls at Nuggets (TBA)
It might be easier to simply list which Bulls will play. They were in action in Utah on Monday night. For sure out that game and this one is Taj Gibson. Kirk Hinrich was doubtful to play vs. the Jazz, and I'm sure will be listed the same here. Rose is questionable. Go ahead and expect him to sit out both games. Pau Gasol was a game-time call to return after missing three games with an ankle injury. The Nuggets are starting to play much better. They have won four straight and five of six. Denver won at the Lakers 101-94 in overtime Sunday despite shooting just 37.8 percent from the field. It was Denver's first victory this season when trailing after three quarters.
Key trends: Chicago is 1-6 ATS in the past seven in Denver. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
Early lean: Bulls rarely play well in Denver and are going to be very shorthanded. Nuggets will win this outright and probably easily.
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