NCAA Football Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 12/1/2014
As hard as it is to believe, this is the final week of college football's regular season -- with all due respect to the Army-Navy game on Dec. 13. The season has gone by so incredibly quickly. It looks as if three of the most storied programs out there will have head coaching openings. Nebraska and Florida will for sure, and it should be any day now when Michigan officially dumps Brady Hoke. I think Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost gets the Nebraska job; he is a former quarterback there. It's looking like Colorado State's Jim McElwain is the leader for the Florida job. He's done a great job at CSU and has SEC ties as a former offensive coordinator at Alabama. You keep hearing Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles for the UM gig.
The College Football Playoff committee will release its final rankings this Sunday right before the early NFL games kick off. Remember, it's not just the four teams in the playoff that come from those rankings but also the schools who will play in other elite bowl games. This year those are the Orange, Cotton, Fiesta and Peach. Some conferences do retain tie-ins. For example, if Florida State is in the playoff, the Orange Bowl would then take the second highest-ranked ACC team, which almost surely will be Georgia Tech even it if loses to FSU this week.
Should Alabama, Oregon and Florida State win their respective conference title games this week, they are in the playoff. The higher-ranked team would be placed closer to home. So with Alabama No. 1 in the most recent rankings and Oregon No. 2, which shouldn't change in Tuesday's release, the Tide would face the No. 4 team in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans and the Ducks the No. 3 team in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. The No. 4 spot is very much up for grabs this week with TCU, Baylor and Ohio State the likely candidates. If multiple Top-4 teams lose, we have chaos. It should be fun!
Here are a few opening lines from BetOnline that caught my eye for Week 15. All rankings from last week's College Football Playoff release, so they will look different Tuesday. Then again Sunday.
No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 11 Arizona (+13.5): This is the first year the Pac-12 title game is at a neutral site and will be played at Levi's Stadium, home of the 49ers. Think Oregon is thrilled that it gets to deliver some payback to the Wildcats? I guarantee you this is the matchup the Ducks wanted. Arizona won 31-24 in Eugene on Oct. 2. It was the third time since 2007 that an unranked Wildcats team upset an Oregon squad ranked in the Top 5 (it happened in 2013 as well). The Ducks haven't lost since that and have looked dominant. Also, Arizona receiver Samajie Grant will not start as punishment for being cited on suspicion of driving under the influence early Saturday morning. He caught four passes for 91 yards and two scores in Arizona's upset of Arizona State on Friday that got Arizona into this game when UCLA also was upset by Stanford. Grant has 40 catches for 645 yards and five scores on the season. He had just one catch for nine yards in the first meeting with the Ducks. The pick: Oregon.
Iowa State at No. 5 TCU (-32): I'm assuming the Frogs will move up to No. 4 with Mississippi State's loss to Ole Miss in Week 14. I thought TCU had a good chance of losing at Texas on Thanksgiving, but the Frogs rolled 48-10. They need to destroy Iowa State to impress the committee and hope Baylor loses against Kansas State because Baylor, of course, beat TCU earlier this season. The Frogs may also need Ohio State to lose to Wisconsin to get in the national semifinals. The pick: Too many points to give. ISU has nothing to lose here.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 17 Missouri (+14.5): The Tigers clearly are getting no respect in the SEC title game at the Georgia Dome. Do you realize that if Missouri wins the SEC might not get a team in the playoff? Sorry, but the Tigers wouldn't deserve it with two losses on the season, with one coming to terrible Indiana of the Big Ten. Last time Mizzou faced a top-ranked Alabama team, it didn't go well as the Tide rolled 42-10 in Columbia in 2012. Obviously this Tigers team is much better than that one. The pick: Take the points. Tide will play flat for a half or so after the emotional Iron Bowl win.
No. 12 Kansas State at No. 7 Baylor (TBA): Why no opening line? Because Bears star quarterback Bryce Petty left Saturday's too-close win over Texas Tech with a concussion. Petty said he suffered from headaches and double vision and that things were a "little muddy" after the hit that forced him out. He vowed to play against Kansas State, and I'm sure if even remotely possible that Petty will. The Bears have to win and win impressively to jump TCU. For comparison's sake, TCU beat K-State 41-20 back on Nov. 8. So Baylor better win by at least 21. The pick: Presume Baylor at least a TD favorite and Bears should roll if Petty goes.
No. 14 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Ohio State (+4): My guess is OSU would have been a touchdown favorite for this one, but that script got flipped when star redshirt freshman QB J.T. Barrett was lost to a season-ending broken ankle in the win over Michigan on Saturday. So it's third-stringer Cardale Jones the rest of the way for Ohio State. Jones took 39 snaps last year as a redshirt freshman and has played seven games this season as a backup, throwing 17 passes and carrying the ball 26 times. He's simply not as good as Barrett, who was in the running for Big Ten Player of the Year. If Barrett doesn't win it, Badgers running back Melvin Gordon will. His 2,260 yards rushing are No. 4 in FBS history. He'll need a big game here and in the bowl game to catch the mark of 2,628 by Oklahoma State's Barry Sanders in 1988. The pick: OSU is still the more talented team, so take the points. Buckeyes will sell out to stop Gordon, and I'm not sure Badgers can throw enough to win.
Fresno State at No. 23 Boise State (-19.5): This is the Mountain West Conference title game, and if Boise State wins it will take the one spot guaranteed to the highest-ranked non-Power 5 Conference team for a spot in the Orange, Cotton, Fiesta or Sugar Bowl. It will probably be the Fiesta. If BSU loses, I'm not sure which school gets that bid because unbeaten Marshall was upset in Week 14 by Western Kentucky. I expect a Boise win. It beat visiting Fresno 37-27 back on Oct. 17. The pick: Boise wins but too many points to give.
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