Oklahoma City Thunder Futures Odds: Not even a Lock for the Playoffs
by George Monroy - 11/24/2014
News around the NBA is that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have returned to light practice and are five to 10 games away from returning to a roster that started the year with the worst record in the entire Western Conference. Oklahoma City had championship aspirations heading into the 2014 season and was also on the hot seat after failing to make a return trip to the NBA Finals since losing to LeBron James and the Miami Heat back in 2012.
Injuries have halted the Thunders championship-or-bust seasons for nearly three straight years, and after the team's latest setback-Durant with a fractured foot and Westbrook with a fractured wrist-Oklahoma City may already be in danger of missing the playoffs not even 15 games into the season. That assessment might seem absurd in late November, but taking a closer look at the standings, and the team's 3-12 record, will show just how perilous Oklahoma City's situation really is.
Can the Thunder Make the Playoffs?
Oklahoma City is sitting on three victories in a conference that will probably require at least 49 wins to even be in contention for the final playoff spot in the West. The conference currently has nine teams on pace to win 47 games this season, the same as it did last year, and if 49 happens to be the postseason magic number, then Oklahoma City would need to end the year with a 46-21 record, which would be manageable if Durant and Westbrook returned to the lineup immediately.
The trouble for the Thunder is that neither player is expected to return until early- to mid-December, which would place the team near the 5-20 mark on the season, and needing to win a whopping 44 of its last 57 games to close out the year. Even if Oklahoma manages to improve its play and produces a .500 stretch of basketball over its next 10 games without Durant and Westbrook, the team would still need to end the season with a 41-16 record and .719 win percentage.
Oklahoma City 's Futures Odds
Oklahoma City's playoff chances seem bleak at the movement, and even if the team managed to play at a furious pace to close our the year and sneak into the eighth seed, how much energy would they have left to make a deep run through the overly-competitive Western Conference playoff bracket? And that is not even taking into account the fact that the extremely-conservative Thunder General Manager Sam Presti might hold Durant out longer than expected and not run the risk of having the reigning MVP re-aggravate the injury with a quick return.
The Thunder are currently receiving tantalizing futures odds for a team that is a championship contender when healthy, and the next question on every bettors mind should be, "are those odds worth a bet?".
NBA Title Odds: +3000 (12th best)
Western Conference Odds: +1500 (eight best)
Anytime a team has two of the Top 10 players in the league-arguably two of the Top 5-they will always be a contender whose futures odds have value. The Thunder could get Durant and Westbrook back over the next two weeks and tear through the Western Conference. And once a team is in the playoffs, anything can happen. The Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs perfected the art form of making a deep postseason run from a lower seed.
Is Oklahoma City Worth a Bet?
At the moment there is no line on whether or not Oklahoma City will make the playoffs, but there probably should be, because the final outcome will be close. The team is receiving a fantastic price at +3000 and +1500 title and conference odds, and if a bettor decided to take a shot on both of those futures, the wagers would not be a mistake. Basketball games are decided by the teams with transcendent players, and Oklahoma City has two of them. However, 2014 is shaping up to be a lost season for the Thunder. Expect the team to take the conservative approach with Durant, which will result in Oklahoma City missing the playoffs this season. Presti will not mortgage his future-by risking his franchise player-for the possibility of making the playoffs.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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