College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 2/9/2015
The ninth edition of the Schedule Spot Fade Plays weekly article is here. The plays fell flat on their face last week, going 0-3. All three of them weren't particularly close, so the scheduling spots weren't enough to help the teams out. Texas is a team that I worry about at this point in the season. The Longhorns continue to disappoint compared to expectations, and this late in the season you would expect the team to have better chemistry. Montana and UC Irvine both split during the week, but we had them in the wrong game in both instances.
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Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team using Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
This week's fade plays card will be the biggest of the season thus far as we try to capitalize on some favorable spots and get back some positive momentum.
Play #1- Play on Baylor -6 (Fade Oklahoma State) on Monday, February 9
Oklahoma State is coming off a great comeback win over Kansas this past Saturday. The Cowboys should definitely be commended for winning that game, but I still believe they are a couple notches below the best teams in the conference. Not only is Marcus Smart gone from last year's team, but Markel Smart is gone as well. The Cowboys offense depends almost entirely on Nash and Forte. Oklahoma State has to be ready to play just two days after one of the bigger wins in recent history for the program. Baylor has been great on their home court this year. Oklahoma State's huge second-half comeback had to take some gas out of their tank, and Baylor should capitalize.
Play #2- Play on Denver (Fade North Dakota State) on Thursday, February 12
North Dakota State won the Summit League title last year, but this year's team isn't even close to as talented. North Dakota State has struggled away from home this season. The Bison have been pulling out tons of close victories in recent weeks. That's a warning signal for me, and North Dakota State recently needed overtime to beat Denver at home. Denver isn't a good team away from home, but they are always tough to beat at Magness Arena. North Dakota State has been playing a lot of games at home lately, which makes this road trip even more of an eye-opener for the Bison. Denver gets revenge for their loss earlier this year.
Play #3- Play on Drake (Fade Indiana State) on Saturday, February 14
The Drake Bulldogs are suddenly playing much better basketball of late. They have covered four straight games. Drake's first conference win was earlier this year at home against Indiana State, so they've shown they match up well against Indiana State. The Sycamores play at Wichita State on Wednesday night. That game should take a lot out of an Indiana State team that isn't particularly deep. Drake plays at home against a short-handed Bradley team on Wednesday, so I think they come into this game as the fresher team. Indiana State will be a significant favorite here, but after being worn down by Wichita State I see the value on the much-improved road team.
Play #4- Play on Belmont (Fade Morehead State) on Saturday, February 14
Morehead State beat Belmont 73-71 on a buzzer beater this past weekend. Morehead State hosted that game, and this coming Saturday's game will be at Belmont. This is a really tough spot for Morehead State. The Eagles primary rival is Eastern Kentucky, and they'll be playing at Eastern Kentucky on Wednesday night. An emotional win over Belmont on Saturday and then a draining game at a rival on Wednesday precedes this tough game. Belmont isn't the team they were a couple years ago, but the Bruins are still solid, especially on their home floor. This is a terrific chance for Belmont to get quick revenge against a worn out Morehead State team.
Play #5- Play on TCU (Fade Oklahoma State) on Saturday, February 14
Yes, we'll be fading Oklahoma State twice this week. The Big 12 is a really deep conference this year, and the Cowboys schedule leading up to this game is brutal. Oklahoma State isn't as deep as most teams in the league, and it should start showing up in this one. TCU has been so close to that signature win in the Big 12, and I think they get it here. An overtime loss at home to Baylor and an overtime loss at West Virginia were really tough to swallow. Here they have a great chance against an Oklahoma State team that isn't likely to be quite as fired up for this contest after their huge matchups in the previous two games.
Last Week's Results- 0 Wins 3 Losses (Montana -1, Texas -6, UC Irvine -9)
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 12 Wins 13 Losses (-$230)
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