Super Bowl Team Props Odds: Shopping for the Best Proposition Lines
by Dave Schwab - 1/28/2015
Most of the top sportsbooks will release prop bet odds for major sporting events, but they take things up to an entirely new level when it comes to the Super Bowl. It almost becomes mind-boggling when you try and sift through the betting odds for the hundreds of different props they have listed, but it is still worth your while to shop your favorite sportsbooks to uncover the best value in the numbers.
Team to Score First
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One of the most popular props for this game is betting on which team will score first. Gaining that initial edge on the scoreboard in the Super Bowl is huge. Going back over the first 48 games, the team that has scored first has gone on to win 32 times. It stands to reason that since New England is a slight favorite to win on Sunday that the odds for this prop would also be weighted in its favor, but that is not always the case when you shop the current odds.
BetOnline has set the money line for this prop at -120 for the Patriots and +100 for Seattle. If you bet this prop with Sportsbook.ag you would also have to risk -120 for a bet on New England, but the money line on the Seahawks will cost you -110 for a $100 wager. Bovada's betting odds for this prop stand at -115 for a play on either New England or Seattle.
I like the Patriots to win this game, so I am going with the past betting trends with a play on them to score first as well using Bovada's -115 betting money line.
First Score of the Game
One of the next props on the list is betting on what the first score of the game will be. This is a rather simple bet that is broken down into two choices; a touchdown or a field goal/safety. The betting odds heavily favor a touchdown will all three books, but the numbers are far from equal.
The money line that a touchdown will be the first score with BetOnline stands at -160 with the odds set at +130 for a field goal/safety. The numbers shift to -145 for a touchdown and +115 for a field goal/ safety with Bovada, and the betting odds at Sportsbook.ag favor a touchdown at -155 as opposed to +125 betting odds for a field goal/safety.
I like to pick my Super Bowl props as a steady progression through the game from the opening kickoff. Applying a bit of logic to this matchup, I am going with the best value on the board with the +130 return on a field goal/safety with BetOnline. I already have New England scoring first, but given that it is facing the top defense in the league in points allowed, I see the Patriots having to settle for a field goal on an early drive that stalled.
Team to Score Last Wins the Game
Both BetOnline and Bovada have set betting odds for the prop that the team that scores last in this game wins. The money line odds both favor "yes," with the odds set at -195 at BetOnline and at -200 with Bovada. The odds for "no" stand at +160 with both books.
Once again, I am banking on my own personal scenario on how this game actually plays out to make my picks. I am already going with New England to win the Super Bowl SU, and I am also going with the Patriots to score first, so I am going to try and squeeze the value out of this prop with a play on the "no" that the team scoring last wins the game.
This should remain a fairly tight matchup into the fourth quarter, but I still have New England setting the pace on the scoreboard to force Seattle to play from behind. The lead will be greater than eight points late in the fourth quarter to put the Seahawks in a position where they need to score twice to win the game. They get the first score late in the game to close the gap, but unlike the game against Green Bay, they come up a few points short in the final score.
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Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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