Tracking the Wizards: NBA Picks and Handicapping for Washington Basketball
by Dave Schwab - 4/7/2015
All season long I have been exclusively handicapping the Washington Wizards as part of a NBA betting strategy that relies heavily on specialization on one team. I have also been releasing free picks for their games with the use of Doc's Sports Unit Betting System to help prove the point. The results have been mixed with an overall record of 11-10-2, but I am getting closer to my goal of producing a profit for the year.
Doc's continues to post these weekly free picks for Washington games on its homepage, so be sure to check the site to follow along with my progress. The Wizards are trying to build some momentum for the postseason, and I am trying to do the same with my picks.
Washington Wizards Free Picks, Odds and Predictions
Wednesday, April 8, 7 p.m. EST (Wells Fargo Center)
The Wizards continue their current three-game road trip with a stop at the Wells Fargo Center this Wednesday night to face the Philadelphia 76ers. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. (ET), and the game will be available on NBA League Pass.
Washington started this latest road trip on Saturday with a solid 92-83 victory against Memphis after closing as an eight-point underdog. It has now won its last three games straight up while going 2-1 against the spread. This followed a string of six games in which it went 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS. The total has stayed "under" in their last two contests after going "over" in three of its previous four games.
The 76ers have pretty much been riding out the string since fall of last year with an overall record of 18-60 SU (39-37-2 ATS). They bring a SU losing streak of six games into this contest while going 2-4 ATS. During this latest slide the total has gone over in three of their last four games.
Washington at Philadelphia Betting Storylines
Washington's win over the Grizzlies was its first against a team with a SU winning record in its last 15 games, but it could not have come at a better time. The Wizards still have a solid grip on fifth place in the East at 44-33 SU, and this win has them within striking distance of Chicago for the third seed in the conference at just two games back. They have not done a good job lately against the teams they were supposed to beat with a 1-3-1 record ATS in their last five games as favorites.
Bradley Beal had the hot hand against Memphis with a game-high 20 points, and John Wall added another 18 points in the winning effort. This backcourt duo remains the primary strength of this team along with a defense that is ranked eighth in the league in points allowed (97.4). Washington is averaging 98.3 points per game while adding 44.3 rebounds and 23.9 assists that are ranked in the Top 10 of the NBA in both categories. One injury concern for Wednesday night is Paul Pierce. He has missed his last two games with a bad toe.
The 76ers continue their pursuit of trying to land the top pick in this year's NBA Draft behind an offense that is ranked last in the league in scoring with 91.6 PPG. They have been somewhat better on defense by holding teams to 100.4 PPG, which is ranked 18th in the NBA. Looking back at Philadelphia's last six outings, it has been able to raise its scoring average to 95 PPG, but it has given up 103 points a game to its opponents during this same stretch.
Nerlens Noel and Robert Covington each scored 14 points in this past Sunday's 101-91 loss to New York as one-point road favorites. They are two of the 76ers' biggest rays of hope for the future with a combined scoring average of 22.9 points and 12.6 rebounds a game on the year. The Sixers have already lost their top two scorers this season with Tony Wroten going down with a torn ACL in early February and Michael-Carter Smith leaving in a late-season trade.
Washington at Philadelphia NBA Betting Odds and Key Trends
BetOnline has listed the Wizards as 6.5-point road favorites against Philadelphia for this Wednesday's matchup with the betting odds on the total set at 191.5.
The Wizards are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a SU losing record at home. The total has gone over in five of their last seven games following an ATS win.
The 76ers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team from the Southeast Division, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. The total has gone over in nine of their last 13 games against a team with a SU winning record.
Washington is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games against Philadelphia, and the total has gone over in four of the last seven games. The home team is 3-0 both SU and ATS in this season's series.
Washington at Philadelphia Free NBA Picks and Betting Predictions
Washington has begun to gain some traction in its last few games, and while I am still hesitant to lay the points on a team that is 13-23-1 ATS on the road this season, I do like its chances to run up the score just enough in this game with a 3-unit play on the over.
NBA Regular Season Betting Record: 11-10-2 (-$230)
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