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Tracking the Wizards: NBA Picks and Handicapping for Washington Basketball

by - 4/13/2015

Washington Wizards shooting guard Bradley Beal

Specialization on just one team can be a viable betting strategy in the NBA, and to help prove this point I have been exclusively handicapping the Washington Wizards all season long. I have also been releasing free picks for their games with the use of Doc's Sports Unit Betting System to put some money behind this theory. The results have been mixed with 12-10-2 record on the year with a slight profit of $70.

Doc's has been posting these weekly free picks for Washington games on its homepage, so be sure to check the site to follow along with my progress. As the Wizards continue to build some momentum heading into the postseason, I am looking to keep things rolling as well.

Washington Wizards Free Picks, Odds and Predictions

Tuesday, April 14, 8 p.m. EST (Bankers Life Fieldhouse)

The Wizards will play the first of two road games to close out the regular season this Tuesday night against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. (ET), and the game will be broadcast nationally on TNT.

Washington has been able to build some momentum heading into the start of the playoffs later this week with a straight up 5-1 record in its last six games. This past Sunday, the Wizards knocked off Atlanta 108-99 as nine-point home favorites. That "push" leaves them 3-2-1 against the spread during this six-game stretch. The total has gone "over" in two of their last three contests.

The Pacers are still battling for a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs at 37-43 SU (42-35-3 ATS) on the year, and they are now 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their last five outings. Indiana is coming off Sunday's 116-104 victory against Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point home favorite. The total went over the closing 210.5-point line, and it has gone over in three of its last four games.

Washington at Indiana Betting Storylines

The Wizards are pretty much locked in as the fifth seed in the East at 46-34 SU (31-47-2), so you have to question how motivated they will be on Tuesday night against an Indiana team that still needs to win to keep its playoff hopes alive. It also does not help that Washington is just 17-22 SU and a costly 14-24-1 ATS on the road this season. This past Friday night, it had no answer for Brooklyn on the road with John Wall out of the lineup in a 117-80 beatdown as five-point road underdogs.

The good news for Washington headed into the postseason is the play of both Wall and Bradley Beal when they are on the court together. In Sunday's win against Atlanta, Wall scored a game-high 24 points and Beal added 17 points to lead the way. On the year, this backcourt duo is averaging a combined 32.8 points and 13.1 assists a game. The Wizards are ranked 18th in the NBA in scoring with 98.5 points per game, and they are ninth in the league in points allowed (97.6).

Indiana has gotten hot at just the right time, but it still may not be enough to get into the postseason if it fails to win its final two games. The Pacers are currently tied with Brooklyn for the eighth and final spot in the East with the Nets holding the tiebreaker, so Tuesday night is essentially a must-win playoff game. They will finish things up on Wednesday against Memphis on the road.

During this recent run, Indiana has gotten a strong effort from guards George Hill and CJ Miles. These two combined for 49 of the Pacers' 116 points in Sunday's win against the Thunder. Hill has led the way in scoring all season long with 15.8 points, and Miles is a close second with 13.1 PPG. Indiana matches up extremely well with the Wizards in both points scored (97.5) and points allowed (97.1)

Washington at Indiana NBA Betting Odds and Key Trends

BetOnline has listed the Wizards as seven-point road underdogs against Indiana in Tuesday night's matchup, with the betting odds on the total set at 192.5.

The Wizards are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the Central Division. The total has stayed under in four of their last five road games.

The Pacers have now covered ATS in their last four home games, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Southeast Division. The total has gone over in six of their last seven games at home.

The road team in this matchup is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the total has stayed under in seven of the last nine games played in Indiana. Washington has the 2-1 SU edge in this season's series, but the Pacers are 2-1 ATS.

Washington at Indiana Free NBA Picks and Betting Predictions

There are some strong betting trends for the road team in this series, but Washington's woeful record ATS on the road this season tends to negate this edge. I am going against the Wizards on Tuesday night with a 3-Unit play on the highly-motivated Pacers to win and cover.

3-Unit Play-Take Indiana (-7) over Washington

NBA Regular Season Betting Record: 12-10-2 (+$70)

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