College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 2/10/2016
The ninth edition of the College Basketball Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks article is here. Last season was the first for this article.
For this article throughout the year, I'll be looking at schedule spots that could be bad ones for teams throughout the course of the season and then recommending plays based on those spots. We'll track the weekly results throughout the course of the season. For games that don't have a line at the time each article is written, the Bookmaker opening line will be used for grading purposes. All plays will be one-unit plays.
After back to back 4-1 weeks, last week the selections split at two wins and two losses. Vanderbilt needed a big win at home against Texas A&M, and they crushed the Aggies in that good spot. The bad news for the Commodores is they faltered again in their next game, and they are squarely on the bubble. Portland State thumped a tired Montana State team for the other cover. Belmont very narrowly missed covering against Morehead State. Duquesne was the worst pick of the week. The Dukes were outhustled by a hungry Davidson team on Saturday afternoon.
Play #1- Play on Belmont -17 (Fade Jacksonville State) on Wednesday, February 10
The Belmont Bruins were just embarrassed at home by Eastern Kentucky. Belmont is widely seen as the best team in the Ohio Valley Conference, and now they badly need a bounce-back win. They get a great chance to blow away a short-handed team here in Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State is expected to be without their top two scorers for Wednesday night's game. Malcolm Drumwright and Erik Durham are both injured. Drumwright has missed the last three games, and Jacksonville State has failed to score more than 63 points in any of those games. Durham had been their go to guy in some recent games, and he's out as well. The Gamecocks have very little firepower here. Look for Belmont to stomp Jacksonville State.
Play #2- Play on William & Mary (Fade Hofstra) on Thursday, February 11
The Hofstra Pride have totally choked away their last two games. They lost to UNC Wilmington a week ago after leading by 18 points in the second half. On Saturday, Hofstra lost to James Madison in overtime after leading by nine points with 3:35 left in the game. That was a crucial loss for Hofstra, and they now sit two games back in the CAA standings.
William & Mary is just one game back of the lead in the CAA race, and William & Mary has some major revenge on their minds in this one. Hofstra drilled William & Mary 91-63 a few weeks ago. That was a revenge game for Hofstra since it was William & Mary who beat them three times last year. One of those was William & Mary's double overtime win over Hofstra in the CAA tournament.
Now, we get a William & Mary team who comes in with a lot of confidence against a Hofstra team that has to be in a bad spot emotionally from their ugly finishes in the last two games. We'll back the home team and fade Hofstra.
Play #3- Play on Evansville (Fade Illinois State) on Thursday, February 11
Illinois State stunned Wichita State on Saturday night. The Redbirds were a double-digit underdog at home in that game, and they looked dead in the early going. Their defense kept them in the game and they won in shocking (pun intended) fashion over Wichita State.
Evansville already beat Illinois State on the road by 11 points this year, but the Purple Aces aren't going to overlook a team that just beat Wichita State. On the other hand, Illinois State can't be as fired up for this game as they were that matchup against the Shockers. This is a clear letdown spot for Illinois State, and they are playing against the second-best team in the Missouri Valley Conference. We'll take Evansville here.
Play #4- Play on Cal State Northridge (Fade UC Irvine) on Saturday, February 13
This might be the hardest play to make of the five this week. Why? UC Irvine is a really good team. Still, we'll be catching a lot of points, and UC Irvine is definitely in a bad scheduling spot here. Irvine will make the long trip to Hawaii to take on the Warriors in a game that starts very late. That won't be an easy game against a Hawaii team that pushes the tempo and fights very hard at home.
UC Irvine then has to travel quickly back to the mainland to host Cal State Northridge on Saturday. After a game against an upper echelon team in Hawaii, this is a perfect spot for a letdown for UC Irvine. Additionally, there's no doubt that the trip to Hawaii takes a lot of your legs, especially when there is a quick turnaround like this. Grab the points with Cal State Northridge here.
Play #5- Play on UC Riverside (Fade Cal Poly) on Saturday, February 13
Cal Poly is in shambles right now. The Mustangs lost one of the most heartbreaking ways possible at home recently to UC Irvine when the Anteaters burned them with a full-court pass and made three at the buzzer to force overtime. How did they respond the next game? Cal Poly was blown out at home by Hawaii.
UC Riverside already beat Cal Poly on the road this season. Riverside is coming off a tough loss by a point at home to UC Davis, but they have a full week off to get ready for this game. Cal Poly must take on a good Long Beach State team on the road on Thursday before coming to take on UC Davis Saturday night. Cal Poly is both worn out and discouraged after their recent stretch. I'll fade them and take UC Riverside at home in this one.
Last Week's Results- 2 Wins (Vanderbilt -2 and Portland State -7) 2 Losses (Belmont -7.5 and Duquesne -2)
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