NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: Risky Business Backing Top-Ranked Teams

by Chris Vasile - 2/10/2016

The saying "don't judge a book by its cover" came to mind as I started writing this article. Many recreational bettors (squares) will be the first people in line to lay points with any team that has a "(1)" beside their name regardless of who that team is or when and where they are playing. The more informed handicappers of the world know better than to blindly lay points with the top-rated team in any sport - especially in college basketball this year.

As I did a little bit of research on the records of the top-ranked teams in the country up to date, I was a little surprised at two things. The first being the amount of road games the top teams have the unfortunate luck of playing. Take Michigan State and Oklahoma for example. Both teams have been ranked No. 1 for six games, and both teams have played only two of those games at home. I would definitely chalk that up to tough-luck scheduling, but I wonder how many weeks longer they would have stayed ranked No. 1 had they been given a lion's share of home games on the schedule.

The second thing that caught me by surprise was just the overall atrocious record for these top-ranked teams against the spread. There have been 25 games played up to date, and the No. 1 team in the country is covering the spread at a putrid clip of 36 percent, which is good for a 9-16 record. Villanova is 1-0 ATS courtesy of an 86-59 win against DePaul, covering the -14.5 spread on the road. They did not make this list this time since they have played only one game as the top-ranked team in the country.

North Carolina

Number of games at No. 1 - (4)

ATS Record - 2-2

Home ATS - 1-1

Away ATS - 1-1

Kentucky

Number of games at No. 1 - (4)

ATS Record - 0-4

Home ATS - 0-2

Away ATS - 0-2

Michigan State

Number of games at No. 1 - (6)

ATS Record - 2-4

Home ATS - 1-1

Away ATS - 1-3

Oklahoma

Number of games at No. 1 - (6)

ATS Record - 3-3

Home ATS - 2-0

Away ATS - 1-3

Kansas

Number of games at No. 1 - (4)

ATS Record - 1-3

Home ATS - 0-2

Away ATS - 1-1

Total

Number of games for No. 1 - (25)

ATS Record - 9-16

Home ATS - 4-6

Away ATS - 5-10

The second you hit No. 1 in the polls, you become a target. Teams will be gunning for you and will be giving that extra effort that they might not have against an average team. Going into opponents buildings will seem more hostile than previous encounters. Take it for what it is, but being the No. 1 team is a burden most 18-22 year olds can't stand to carry. I am sure their coaches echo that same sentiment.

Based on the list above, I would look to play against the top team in the country on the road as they do not perform well in this specific spot. Barring an unexpected loss by Villanova in their next game Feb 13 against St. John's, they will travel to Temple as the top-ranked team to take on the Owls. Look to play Temple in this spot as a live underdog at home.

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