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Expert College Basketball Handicapping: The Last of the Unbeatens


by - 12/4/2018

Virginia Cavaliers forward Mamadi Diakite

It's pretty incredible if you think about it - there are 353 Division I college basketball teams, and less than a month into the season we are down to just 11 unbeaten teams. And by Friday we will have no more than 10. Some were expected to be this good. Others are various degrees of surprising. Here's a look at each of the squads, how they got here, and how far they might go before losing:

Houston (6-0): The Cougars were a six-seed in the NCAA Tournament last year, and in the second round they gave Michigan their toughest test they faced before the championship game, losing but a single point. With Corey Davis Jr. leading the way, this Houston team is again playing well. We think. The problem is that they have played no one - Oregon and BYU are their only decent opponents, and neither is great. Their schedule isn't massively frightening going forward, but it gets tougher, and they are not going to stay anywhere close to unbeaten.

Virginia (7-0): The Cavaliers have done a good job of shaking off the humiliation of being the first No. 1 seed ever to lose in the first round with this start. But they have yet to really be tested. Maryland is their best opponent to date, and Virginia was still favored by three on the road. It's hard to get a sense of this team - they have the best defense in the country by points allowed, but that lacks meaning given their opposition. This is an elite team, but how elite is an open question. And the problem is that it's going to be a long while until we see them play a real team.

Texas Tech (7-0): This is another team with excellent defensive stats and unproven given the level of competition. In five of the seven games they have played, they have been favored by at least 11.5 points. The only time they weren't favored was on a neutral court against Nebraska. You are not a great team if you are an underdog against Nebraska. They play Duke before Christmas, and it's hard to imagine the winning streak continuing past that moment.

Kansas (6-0): The Jayhawks are a supremely talented team - one of a small handful of truly elite teams in the country. They are deep and very dangerous. But they aren't in a great place right now, having needed overtime to win both of their last two games against Tennessee and Stanford. They were favored by 20 against the Cardinal, so that's particularly a concern. With Villanova and Arizona State looming before Christmas, there will be plenty of tests left for the squad.

St. John's (7-0): The Red Storm and their mediocre defense have not played anyone at all this year - their toughest opponent has been a Rutgers team that is a long way from strong. They have a good chance of making the new year still unbeaten, but things get dramatically tougher early next year, and it's not going to go well.

Michigan (8-0): The Wolverines have played three ranked teams this year - Purdue, North Carolina and Villanova. They have won by 17, 19 and 27 points, respectively. They are playing outstanding defense while doing a good imitation of a standard John Beilein offense. And it has them ranked in the Top 5 nationally. They aren't going to lose until the heart of conference play. It will come - perhaps as soon as their Indiana game - but there won't be a lot of losses if they keep playing like they are now.

Buffalo (7-0): It's the brightest time ever for Buffalo athletics - they just won a team record of 10 games in football, and they are ranked higher than ever before at 17th in basketball. A win over West Virginia was their signature performance to date and will likely be their signature win of the season. They play Syracuse and Marquette in consecutive games three days apart right before Christmas, and that just isn't going to go well for them.

Nevada (8-0): The Wolf Pack came into the season as a heavily-hyped team. And to this point they have really lived up to it. The Martin brothers are beasts, and they have rolled over every team they have faced. The problem, though, is that they haven't faced anyone. That changes on Friday when they play fellow unbeaten Arizona State. There will be fireworks. And if they come out on top in that one, they have a decent look at running the table - they will be the best team in every conference game they play, and that's not by an insignificant amount.

Arizona State (7-0): This is a big and talented team but not one that is perceived as particularly dominant - they were four-point underdogs against Mississippi State on a neutral court. They have that big test against Nevada looming. Then before Christmas they play two SEC road games and then host Kansas. Santa will not be visiting the homes of undefeated players in Tempe this year.

Furman (8-0): Villanova was by the toughest opponent on Furman's schedule this year, and the Paladins beat them by eight as 16-point underdogs. I won't pretend to know much about the Southern Conference this year, but any team that can beat the defending national champs should be able to win most of their conference games. Probably not all, but most.

Gonzaga (8-0): Dec. 15. That's the key date here. If the Bulldogs go to bed unbeaten that night, then they are going to run the table. The conference schedule is worse than normal, and it's never very deep. Before than they play Washington and Tennessee and then play at North Carolina on the 15th. I like their chances. A lot. Michigan ripped North Carolina apart, and in a different way Gonzaga should reach the same result.

Doc's Sports college basketball handicapping team has set some lofty standards worldwide for college basketball handicapping. They normally do their best work at the beginning of the season. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . No credit card needed, and you will never deal with a salesman. Also, find out more about Doc's Sports expert handicappers college basketball results here . Get daily free college basketball picks on Doc's Sports NCAA hoops predictions page.

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