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Free NBA Picks: Saturday, March 10, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping


by - 3/9/2018

Russell Westbrook Oklahoma City Thunder

Spurs-Thunder is the ABC Saturday prime-time game of the week on Saturday, but that's not the most interesting matchup of the weekend. No, that would be Cavaliers at Lakers, and it really has nothing to do with this year. Yes, it's Cleveland's first game vs. the Lakers since trading Isaiah Thomas, etc., to L.A. and landing Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance. That's a subplot to the fact that the next time LeBron takes the court at Staples Center, it could be as a member of the Lakers. It's no secret that James can become a free agent this summer, has two mansions in L.A. and wants to build an entertainment empire. You pretty much have to be near Hollywood to do that. This week, there was a report from Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer that James is considering the Cavs, Lakers, Rockets and 76ers as potential landing spots next season. The only minor surprise there being Philadelphia. Houston makes the most sense if James wants to win a few more titles the next couple of years, but I see two problems with that: The Warriors are also in the West, and it might look like LeBron is fishing for rings if Houston wins it all this season and then James goes there to play with buddy Chris Paul and James Harden. BetOnline has Cleveland and Houston as +250 co-favorites as James' team in 2018-19.

Suns at Hornets (TBA)

I can't prove this, but I think the reason this game is tipping at 5 p.m. ET, which is not a usual time in Charlotte on a Saturday afternoon, is because the ACC Tournament final is at 8:30 p.m. ET and I'm quite sure the Hornets franchise knows NCAA basketball is much bigger in North Carolina than the NBA. The Hornets lost a fifth straight Thursday, 125-111 at home to Brooklyn. Hornets coach Steve Clifford said his team's effort the last two games has been "unacceptable." He might be a goner. The Suns dropped a fourth straight Thursday, 115-87 at Oklahoma City. T.J. Warren missed the game because of back spasms and rookie Josh Jackson left with a knee injury. These teams have split the past three years, but Phoenix would have to pull the upset Saturday to continue that trend. The Suns blew a 21-point mid-third quarter lead at home to Charlotte and lost 115-110. The Hornets' bench was largely responsible for that comeback.

Key trends: The Suns are 4-9 against the spread in their past 13. The "over/under" is 7-0 in the Hornets' past seven vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: TBA for Warren presumably. Love the over regardless here between two terrible defensive teams.

Wizards at Heat (TBA)

Washington was in New Orleans on Friday with Otto Porter questionable. The Heat beat the visiting 76ers on Thursday, 108-99. Hassan Whiteside had 26 points. Miami was 13-for-18 in the fourth quarter when it outscored Philly by 10. Wayne Ellington returned from a three-game absence and had nine points, all in the fourth, in 22 minutes. Last meeting between these teams. Washington leads 2-1 and just won at home on Tuesday, 117-113 in OT. According to the NBA, the Wizards were on the right side of three incorrect calls in overtime.

Key trends: The Wizards are 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. The over is 6-1 in the previous seven in Miami.

Early lean: Wait on Porter, although I think Heat roll.

Grizzlies at Mavericks ( -7.5, 205.5)

Plenty of better things to do in Dallas (I'm guessing) than attend this atrocity. The winner loses here. Memphis hosted Utah on Friday with half the Grizzlies questionable. The Mavs snapped a three-game losing streak with a 118-107 home upset of Denver on Tuesday. Yogi Ferrell was 6-for-7 from deep and finished with a season-high 24 points. Rookie Dennis Smith Jr. had 18 points and a career-high 11 assists. Nerlens Noel had a season-high 14 rebounds for Dallas. I still don't get why the team has barely used him this year (when healthy). Wesley Matthews missed his second straight game with a left hip injury. Last meeting between these teams, with Dallas leading 2-1.

Key trends: The Grizzlies have failed to cover the past four in the series. The over is 6-0 in the Mavs' past six at home.

Early lean: Mavericks and over.

Spurs at Thunder (-5.5, 210.5)

As noted, the ABC prime-time game. The Spurs lost at Golden State on Thursday, 110-107. Bryn Forbes' 3-point try from the top to tie it hit the front rim as the final buzzer sounded. Bryn Forbes is taking the last shot? Somewhat explains how short-handed San Antonio is right now. Pau Gasol missed the game with a shoulder injury. I thought the Thunder might be in letdown mode Thursday vs. the Suns, but OKC ended a two-game slide with a 115-87 laugher. Russell Westbrook had 27 points, eight rebounds and nine assists. This season series is tied 1-1, and they haven't played since early December. San Antonio won the first meeting back on Nov. 17 by rallying from 23 down. That is tied for the second-largest comeback win in the league this season.

Key trends: The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings and the under is 4-1 in those four.

Early lean: Thunder and under.

Magic at Clippers (-11.5, 222.5)

Very confusing scheduling by the NBA for the Magic. They were in Sacramento on Friday - without Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier -- but were at the Lakers on Wednesday. Seems ridiculous they had to fly out of L.A. to Sac-Town and then back Los Angeles. Couldn't the league somehow flip-flop the Kings/Clippers games? The Clippers already were home Friday vs. Cleveland. The Clippers have won the past eight in this series, including 106-95 in Orlando on Dec. 13. Lou Williams poured in 31 points off the bench as the Clippers overcame a 12-point deficit. The Magic are 5-6 in the second of a back-to-back this season. L.A. is 2-8.

Key trends: The Clippers have covered 13 of their past 18 vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 13-3 in the Magic's past 16 on Saturday.

Early lean: Clippers and over.

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