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NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams


by - 3/23/2018

Andrew Wiggins Minnesota Timberwolves

It's looking increasingly likely that Toronto and Houston will be the top seeds in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference, respectively. Golden State's injury issues are something to keep an eye on moving forward. If they can get healthy, Golden State will continue to be a big favorite over anyone come playoff time.

Doc's Sports has done an NBA Totals Trends report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this season. This will be a bi-weekly article here on the site. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' and the Top Five 'Under' teams in the last couple weeks. The NBA season is a very long one, and that lends itself to finding changes in style of play that aren't yet noticed by the oddsmakers. We'll try to find some value in the totals market through this report.

For the season to date, the under is 545-514 (51.46 percent unders). Since the last report two weeks ago, things have been almost exactly 50/50.

The statistics listed below are for games from March 7 through March 21.

Top Five 'Over' Teams (Over Listed First)

1. Milwaukee Bucks (6-1) Remember the great defense Milwaukee played when Jason Kidd first left? It hasn't shown up of late. They are back to being one of the worst in the NBA on that end of the floor. Milwaukee is allowing 1.140 points per possession in their last seven games, which is fourth worst in the NBA in that time. The Bucks are playing surprisingly quick as well. Milwaukee ranks third in tempo in that stretch. If they keep playing this quick, the over will continue to have value.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves (5-1) In their last six games, the Timberwolves are third in the NBA in field goal percentage overall and fourth in the league in 3-point field goal percentage. Minnesota is dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period. Jimmy Butler has always been seen as a good defensive player, and this team's statistics without him on the floor show that has to be true.

3. Charlotte Hornets (5-2) Charlotte is a tough team to figure out. They should be a little better than they are, but they still aren't bad enough to be one of the worst in the NBA. Will the Hornets do a full rebuild in the coming years? I'm interested to see which way they go. Right now, they continue to be a slightly-below-average team consistently. Only the Phoenix Suns have played quicker than the Hornets in the last seven games.

4. Atlanta Hawks (4-2) The Hawks continue to be really bad, but lately they have decided to be go really fast while being bad. Atlanta is fourth in the league in tempo in the last six games. The Hawks are second worst in the league in defensive efficiency during that period. Atlanta is a team I'd be worried to take many unders with late in the season. I can't imagine this team has much motivation the rest of the way.

5. Portland Trail Blazers (4-2) I wouldn't read too much into this one. Portland has played Cleveland, Golden State, Houston, and the Los Angeles Clippers during this span. All of those teams play fast, and they can skew statistics for opponents. The under is 41-30 in Portland's 71 games so far this year. Let's see if their numbers get adjusted up a bit, and if they do I'd look to back under the total in Portland games.

Top Five 'Under' Teams (Under Listed First)

1. Indiana Pacers (7-1) This is the second straight time that the Pacers have been at the top of the under list on this report. In their last 15 games, the Pacers are second only to the Utah Jazz in defensive efficiency. Indiana also ranks 25th in the league in tempo during that time. Indiana will spend a lot of time on the road between now and the end of the regular season. Can they hold their own and not lose ground in the playoff standings?

2. San Antonio Spurs (7-1) I've been really impressed with the Spurs effort on the defensive end in recent games. We know Gregg Popovich is one of the best coaches ever in the NBA, and his recent talks about the need for their defense to improve seem to have worked. The Spurs fell out of the top eight in the Western Conference playoff standings for a bit, but they have rattled off five straight wins and covers. During that five game winning streak, the Spurs have allowed only 0.891 points per possession.

3. Houston Rockets (6-2) Who would have thought the Houston Rockets would be an under machine? It's been true. The under has been particularly valuable when the Rockets play on the road. Houston ranks as the slowest-paced team in the NBA in their last eight games! I would have never expected that. Houston becomes a bit more of an over team with Ryan Anderson on the floor, but it is clear this team is playing differently than they did in the past.

4. Detroit Pistons (5-2) Detroit ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last seven games. Detroit has struggled offensively, and it seems the team has struggled to keep the ball moving. Stagnant offensive sets have become routine for this team. When they traded for Blake Griffin, they thought they would make a playoff push. That hasn't materialized.

5. Utah Jazz (5-2) The defensive numbers from the Jazz lately are insane. In their last 15 games, the Jazz have allowed only 0.929 points per possession. The second-best team in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that span has given up 1.017 points per possession. You'll almost never see any NBA team in today's era hold opponents to 0.929 points per possession in this long of a time span. Utah sits in eighth place in the Western Conference. They would be a tricky matchup for a top team in the first round.

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