Free NBA Picks Friday, November 29 and Opening Line Report
Happy Thanksgiving! I know everyone's sad that there's no NBA basketball today, but we've got a 14-game slate on Friday to start the long weekend ! The Nets and Celtics play at Noon EST tomorrow. Maybe Nets fans will get their wish and watch Kyrie Irving suit up tomorrow for their game against the Celtics at home. Luckily there's no load management issues with literally zero teams playing today. All starters that usually get rest for no reason will be playing. That makes picking games so much easier!
Celtics @ Nets (+3.5, TBD)
The Celtics previously played the Nets on Wednesday, at home, defeating the
Nets by 11 while covering the spread. Kemba Walker returned and dropped 39
points, while the Nets sat Kyrie for the seventh straight game. He might be
back on Friday. With the Nets at home and the game during the day, the Nets
are an intriguing pick here. I'm taking 3.5 points.
Key trends: The Nets are 3-1 (75%) when the spread was +1.5 to +4.5 this season.
Early lean: Nets, (most likely Over)
Raptors @ Magic (+3.5, 228.5)
The Raptors are 13-4 this year without Kawhi Leonard. Pascal Siakam continues to shine and improve season after season. He's averaging 26 points on the year along with 8.4 rebounds while leading the Raptors to one of the top teams in the East. On Wednesday, the Raptors struggled early against the Knicks but relaxed and won the game by a hefty margin of 28 points. The Magic are also coming off a win from Wednesday after beating the Cavs on the road. It was their first road win on the year. They'll be home against the Raptors. You have to take the Raptors against a losing team when they're giving just 3.5 points. The Raptors have already defeated the Magic twice this season. Make it three.
Key trends: The Raptors are 8-2 (80%) against the spread as a favorite this season.
Early lean: Raptors, Under
Hornets @ Pistons (-8.5, TBD)
The Pistons have lost two games this season to the Hornets in stunning fashion. The Pistons finally get the opportunity to beat the Hornets , this time at home. On Wednesday, the Hornets finished off the Pistons at home, winning 102-101. Both games finished extremely close. The Pistons will likely win, but 8.5 points is a lot of points. I'm looking at the Hornets to keep this one close.
Key trends: The Pistons are 3-5 (37.5%) as a favorite against the spread this season.
Early lean: Hornets, (Most likely Over)
76ers @ Knicks (-7.5, 210.5)
Let's get this straight. The line for the Pistons to beat the Hornets is greater than the line for the 76ers to beat the Knicks? The Knicks are coming off a 28-point loss to the Raptors. The 76ers are in the same category at the Raptors. They're dominant. Even on the road, the 76ers should be able to win this one by double-digits and cover the 7.5-point spread.
Key trends: The 76ers are 4-1 (80%) when the spread was -9 to -6 this season.
Early lean: 76ers, Under
Bucks @ Cavaliers (-10.5, TBD)
Milwaukee is 15-3 this season, and they're on a nine-game winning streak. The Cavs will help the Bucks extend the streak into double digits. Even with Kevin Love's return on Wednesday, the Cavs took a double-digit loss to the Magic at home. Last year's first time all-star, Khris Middleton, has returned for the Bucks, which only gives them added depth and more star power. Bucks win big here. Also, the Bucks have defeated the Cavs earlier in the season.
Key trends: The Cavaliers are 3-5-1 (37.5%) at home against the spread this season
Early lean: Bucks, (Most Likely Over)
Warriors @ Heat (-12.5, TBD)
The Warriors spreads are getting a little crazy. The Warriors just defeated the Bulls, at home, by 14 points, led by Eric Paschall. I don't think we'll see too many lopsided games in the future for the Warriors. However, this game might be a little bit contradictory. The Heat, with Jimmy Butler playing, could potentially win this game by 20+. The Heat took a tough loss to the Rockets on Wednesday, losing by nine on the road. Remember, Miami destroys at home. They haven't lost against the spread at home or as a favorite. I'll stick with the Heat until they let me down. This is a big spread, though.
The Heat are 9-0 (100%) as a favorite against the spread this season.
Early lean: Heat, Over
Hawks @ Pacers (-9, 225.5)
The Pacers are coming off a big 19-point win against the Jazz at home. They've won their last four games, with three of their last four at home. Thankfully for the Pacers, they're home for this one, too. The Hawks are finally getting the ceiling potential out of Jabari Parker that was missing earlier in his career. He scored 33 points, brought in 14 rebounds, and had five assists. He and Trae Young are an awesome pairing, and they'll only continue to rise together. The Pacers are on fire right now at home. It's a hefty spread, but it's a spread the Pacers have been covering recently.
Key trends: The Pacers are 5-2-2 (71.4%) as a home favorite this season against the spread.
Early lean: Pacers, Over
Pelicans @ Thunder (-4.5, TBD)
The Pelicans took an emotional loss on Wednesday after Anthony Davis dropped 41 points in a 114-110 win for the Lakers. The Pelicans are going to look to forget about this one and move on to their next game against the Thunder. The Thunder have really struggled lately, losing a game to the Trail Blazers and just escaping the Warriors on the road. I'm looking for the Pelicans to regroup with their off day and win this one against the Thunder as 4.5-point underdogs .
Key trends: The Pelicans are 9-9 (50%) vs Teams Allowing over 102 points per game this season.
Early lean: Pelicans, Over
Jazz @ Grizzlies (+6.0, 217.5)
In the first meeting between these teams, the Grizzlies got the best of the Jazz. Mike Conley will get his second chance to beat his former team with the Jazz. Conley thought he got caught up in all of the "hoopla" and didn't perform well in the first game against the Grizzlies after playing 12 seasons in Memphis. Conley's replacement, Ja Morant, has been fantastic, and Wednesday was just another day for Morant. He scored 20 points, 11 assists, and five rebounds in a two-point loss to the Clippers. Morant has been the best rookie this season and will continue his dominance and win this game outright. I'll take the six points and place it safe, though.
Key trends: The Jazz are 3-6 (33.3%) on the road against the spread this season.
Early lean: Grizzlies, Under
Clippers @ Spurs (+4.5, 225.5)
The Spurs have been dreadful this season at home. The Clippers actually haven't performed well on the road, either. The Spurs are coming off another loss at home against the Timberwolves by the score of 113-101 while the Clippers are coming off a nail-biting win against the Grizzlies. Here's the problem with Wednesday night: Kawhi Leonard didn't play. He'll be well rested and ready for Friday. Clippers should win this one by double-digits.
Key trends: The Spurs are 1-9 (10%) at home against the spread this season.
Early lean: Clippers, Under
Mavericks @ Suns (-1, 231.5)
Who would've thought the Suns would be favorites in a game against the Mavericks during the beginning of the season? Not you. Not me. But here we are. The Suns, who are 8-9 on the year, lost four of their last five games this season while the Mavericks are coming off an interesting performance against the Clippers. I say interesting because they didn't break 100 points for the first time this year. It won't happen on Friday. The Mavericks will shoot well and defeat the Suns. You can even take them on the moneyline.
Key trends: The Mavericks are 3-1 (75%) as a road underdog against the spread this season.
Early lean: Mavericks, Over
Bulls @ Trail Blazers (-7.5, 225.5)
The Blazers are trending high right now. Carmelo Anthony has helped inject some life to the Trail Blazers this season. The Blazers have defeated the Bulls and Thunder in back-to-back contests behind Anthony, who is making shots consistently once again. The Bulls are coming off a bad loss to the Warriors. The Blazers should be able to win this game by double-digits.
Key trends: The Bulls are 1-5 (16.7%) vs teams that win over 55 percent of games against the spread this season.
Early lean: Trail Blazers, Over
Wizards @ Lakers (-11.5, 224.5)
If you love offense, you'll love this one. The Lakers are consistently hitting in the 100's this season. Washington is doing the same. Washington's most recent game was a 140-132 win against the Suns, while the Lakers came back to beat the Pelicans on the road in a thriller. The Lakers are 16-2 this year. They haven't struggled with a team below .500 at all this year. However, their two loses are against the East Coast. The East Coast teams might be a little more challenging for them compared to the West Coast. I don't know why, but it's a real thing. Give me the Wizards and all the points.
Key trends: The Wizards are 9-2 (81.8%) as an underdog this season against the spread.
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