Free College Basketball Picks Saturday 3/7/2020 and Opening Line Report
It's the final Saturday of the regular season of college basketball. Where has the time gone? We've got Florida State and Louisville fighting for the ACC regular-season title, while Baylor looks to get back on track after losing two of their last three games. The Big East continues to produce Game of the Year type games, and we'll get another one between Seton Hall and Creighton as they also fight for a Big East regular-season championship. Here are the early leans for Saturday's college basketball.
Kansas vs. Texas Tech 3/7/20 (+3, 131.5)
With Udoka Azubuike questionable with a stiff ankle, Kansas will still look to win the outright Big 12 title with a win over Texas Tech. Kansas has won 15 straight games and are destroying a Big 12 conference that might be a tad overrated (other than Baylor). Texas Tech has dropped their last three games but lost an overtime game to Baylor on the road, 71-68. The reality is that Kansas will beat them on the boards, shoot a higher percentage, and get more stops. Texas Tech will need to defend extremely well to keep Kansas in check. Kansas just struggled on the road this season, scoring wise with just 62 and 64 points in their last two road games. Take Texas Tech in a defensive battle. Kansas will win but Texas Tech will cover.
Key trends: Red Raiders are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Early lean: Texas Tech, Under
Baylor vs. West Virginia 3/7/20 (-1, 125.5)
I really haven't been impressed with West Virginia this season, but the fact that they're home intrigues me a little bit. WVU dropped three of their last four games after defeating Iowa State, 77-71, on the road. West Virginia has been awful on the road this season. However, at home, things have been a little easier. Baylor lost their last road game to TCU, 75-72, and West Virginia lost to Baylor by only 11 points in their first meeting. I think Baylor will make a run in the NCAA Tournament, but West Virginia has a shot at this game at home over Baylor. I'd take WVU at home in this matchup.
Key trends: Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Early lean: West Virginia, Under
Kentucky vs. Florida 3/7/20 (-1.5, 136.5)
Kentucky was streaking until a loss at home to Tennessee. This was a game where they led most of the way but choked in the second half. Florida also lost to Tennessee on the road but rebounded to beat Georgia, 68-54. Florida has won their last two games at home over LSU and Arkansas. Both of those games were double-digit blowouts. Kentucky has won on the road, but the deficit hasn't been as large. I also like Florida at home in this matchup. There's a trend in these games so far! Home teams against Top 25 teams.
Key trends: Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Early lean: Florida, Over
Boston College vs. Florida State 3/7/20 (-17.5, 141)
Florida State will welcome Boston College to town as they look for that ACC title. FSU squeaked by Notre Dame on the road after losing to Clemson by a point on the road previously. Boston College has dropped four straight games, while the last three were at home. If Boston College is struggling to beat mid-tier ACC teams at home, good luck beating FSU on the road. This game won't be close. Florida State will dominate in all aspects.
Key trends: Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Early lean: Florida State, Over
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Seton Hall vs. Creighton 3/7/20 (-2.5, 152)
Which team wants the Big East title more? The championship is on the line between Seton Hall vs Creighton. The Big East game of the year before the tournament. I'm excited. Creighton rebounded after a loss to St. John's by scoring 91 points at home against Georgetown. Seton Hall has played very well defensively all season but lost their three-game winning streak to Villanova at home after a two-point loss. I'd stick with Creighton at home. They've been shooting lights out and should feel comfortable at home. The Bluejays have some momentum, while Seton Hall might still be thinking about that loss to Villanova,
Key trends: Bluejays are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Early lean: Creighton, Over
Louisville vs. Virginia 3/7/20 (-1, 112.5)
I'm really not sure how Louisville will play on the road against Virginia. They've struggled to score on the road, and, clearly, it's going to be a challenge against Virginia. Louisville will be fighting FSU for a chance at that ACC regular season title, but Virginia has now put together seven straight wins and are playing at home. Virginia hasn't been pretty this season, scoring 57 points per game, but they're allowing teams to score just 52.3 points per game this season. Louisville has a great offense. However, if they're not going to hit their shots on the road, like they have lately, then my early lean goes to Virginia at home.
Key trends: Cavaliers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Early lean: Virginia, Under
North Carolina vs. Duke 3/7/20 (-12, 152)
The classic matchup between Duke and North Carolina. The funny thing about this game is that UNC is trending upwards and Duke is trending downwards. UNC has won three straight games, while Duke has lost three of their last five games. Duke looked to get back on track with a win over NC State at home, winning 88-69. This is going to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game between the rivals. UNC has nothing to lose, but Duke has plenty to gain. Look for Duke to defeat UNC and escape in the second half to win against the spread.
Key trends: Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Early lean: Duke, Over
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