Free College Basketball Picks Tuesday 2/11/2020 and Opening Line Report
Tuesday's college basketball slate features seven incredible games. In the Big Ten, we've got Penn State and Purdue putting their win streaks on the line, while the SEC features Kentucky visiting Vanderbilt after struggling early at home in the first meeting. The A-10 has the game of the week between Rhode Island and Dayton. Each team has a winning streak of double digits, but one team will need to start over. Which team will it be? Here are the early leans for an exciting Tuesday in college basketball.
Penn State vs. Purdue 2/11/20 (-4, 135)
One week ago, this would've been a no brainer. Penn State would've been a lock. However, Purdue has now won three straight games, with two on the road in Big Ten play along with a home win over Iowa, 104-68. Purdue is home for this one. Penn State, on the other hand, has won six straight games in the Big Ten and could push into the top 10 with the way they're playing. Penn State's offense has been very good, scoring 77.1 points per game. Purdue allows just 60.8 points per game. That will be the difference. As of late, Purdue's defense has stopped their opponents to less than 68 points or less in their last three wins. I think Purdue stops Penn State's offense and gets the win.
Key trends: Boilermakers are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
Early lean: Purdue, Under
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt 2/11/20 (+11.5, 145)
We all remember when Vanderbilt threatened Kentucky in the first meeting between these two teams. Vandy has played much better basketball recently and won their most recent home game against LSU with some crazy shooting efforts. Kentucky's defense allows 65.7 points per game while Vandy scores near 72.7 points per game. Kentucky will out-shoot Vanderbilt. The Wildcats came in that first game and took it easy. They took the game off and then had to storm back. This time, they won't have to storm back.
Key trends: Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Early lean: Kentucky, Under
Rhode Island vs Dayton 2/11/20 (, )
This is probably the biggest A-10 game in a long time. Dayton has won 12 straight games while Rhode Island has won 10 straight. One team's streak is going to end. The other streak will survive. Dayton has been pulling away from games recently but has kept it close against teams like St. Louis, Richmond and Duquesne. Rhode Island almost lost to UMass at home but just recently destroyed George Washington on the road, 82-51. I'd roll with the momentum and take Rhode Island to at least cover the spread. This game has a last-second score feel to it. The energy for this game will be ridiculous.
Key trends: Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Early lean: Rhode Island, Over
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Nebraska vs. Maryland 2/11/20 (-16, 144)
Maryland gets Nebraska at home in what screams a blow out. Nebraska has lost eight straight games while Maryland has started to catch fire in the Big Ten with six straight wins. Maryland's got a crazy size advantage. Nebraska already isn't the best rebounding team. But when facing Maryland, you can forget it. Maryland will not allow second chance opportunities and shots will fall at home. Take Maryland to win big at home.
Key trends: Terrapins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Early lean: Maryland, Under
Michigan State vs. Illinois 2/11/20 (+1.5, 138.5)
Michigan State has struggled. Three straight losses against big rivalry teams will not help on Selection Sunday. Now Michigan State will take on an over-achieving Illinois team that has lost some fire recently with two straight losses themselves to Iowa and Maryland. One team will get back into the win column, though the other team will start to hit the panic button. This game will be pretty even. At least that's what the stats say. Michigan State has more talent and will likely run away with the game towards the end with a couple more plays made. Take Michigan State on the road.
Key trends: Spartans are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Early lean: Michigan State, Over
Missouri vs. LSU 2/11/20 (-10, 145.5)
LSU lost a heartbreaker against Auburn after getting upset by Vanderbilt. Thankfully for LSU, they'll come back home where they're undefeated against SEC play. Missouri defeated Arkansas in overtime in a thriller at home, but have lost their last three games on the road by double digits. LSU should rebound nicely and just play overall better defense. Missouri is no threat from deep like Auburn was. Vandy also shot extremely well against LSU from long range. LSU will need to work on their perimeter defense but shouldn't have a problem in this one.
Key trends: LSU Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Early lean: LSU, Over
New Mexico vs. San Diego State 2/11/20 (-18.5, 147.5)
New Mexico destroyed Wyoming last time out, 97-68. That's not saying much after they lost their previous three Fresno State, San Diego State and Nevada. That San Diego State game went, 85-57 in favor of San Diego State. The score won't be that bad this time around, but it'll be high enough to cover the spread. Who's rooting for this San Diego State undefeated streak to continue? I will be!
Key trends: Aztecs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Early lean: San Diego State, Over
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