Free College Basketball Picks Tuesday 2/25/2020 and Opening Line Report
It's almost March and things are heating up in college basketball. On Saturday, we watched plenty of winning streaks end and upsets for the ages and it's only February. Dayton, who plays George Mason for Tuesday's slate, seemed like the only team that escaped drama in their win over Duquesne. Baylor and San Diego State will also get back to the hardwood on Tuesday. We'll see how both of these teams respond after taking losses they're not used to taking this season. Here are the early lean's for Tuesday, February 25 in college basketball.
Dayton vs. George Mason 2/25/20 (+12, 139.5)
Dayton continues to fly though the Atlantic-10 going an undefeated 14-0 in conference play while on a 16-game winning streak. But each week, the line continues to inflate as Dayton has to cover some big spreads now. George Mason had lost two straight before defeating St. Joe's at home, 62-55. On the year, George Mason averages 67.3 points per game while Dayton averages 80.6 points per game. Plus, Dayton still allows fewer points per game. We saw plenty of win streaks come to a close on Saturday but Dayton wasn't one of them. Dayton will get the job done on the road against George Mason. George Mason hasn't been great at home this season against the spread.
Key trends: Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Early lean: Dayton, Over
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Duke vs. Wake Forest 2/25/20 (+11, 150.5)
This game has all the makings for a ton of points. Wake has gone over in 10 of their last 12 home games while Duke has gone over in 19 of their last 26 games overall. Currently, Duke is averaging 82.6 points per game. In their last four wins, they've scored an average of 86.5 points per game. In their lone loss to NC State, Duke allowed 88 points. Duke hasn't been perfect on the road. In fact, they've had some trouble against the spread in their last two road games. Duke defeated UNC in overtime and lost to NC State by 22 on the road. Wake Forest isn't NC State but is Duke going to show up on the road? Wake Forest averages 71.5 points per contest and allows 72.7 points against. Wake Forest can rebound well and stick around against Duke if they miss some shots. In this match-up alone, the home team is 25-12 against the spread. Duke needs to show me that they can defend on the road before I give them any credit. Take Wake Forest here.
Key trends: Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Early lean: Wake Forest, Over
Kentucky vs. Texas A&M 2/25/20 (-8, 129.5)
Here's another game that has over written all over it. Texas A&M has now won three straight games and just dropped 87 points on Mississippi State at home. A&M has averaged 78.3 points per game during their three-game winning streak. While A&M has held Georgia and Alabama under 70 points, the Aggies might struggle doing the same against Kentucky. The Wildcats are on a six-game winning streak after defeating Florida at home, 65-59. But when Kentucky hits the road, the over has hit seven times in their last nine games. Texas A&M has played 14 conference games this season and have won against the spread in ten of them. Kentucky has also been fantastic on the road as of late, winning five of their last six against the spread on the road. I personally wouldn't bet on this game but if I had to, I'd take the better team in Kentucky.
Key trends: Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Early lean: Kentucky, Over
Ole Miss vs. Auburn 2/25/20 (-10, 141.5)
Auburn continues to find ways to win ball games at home this season. Auburn's record at home is an undefeated 15-0. Ole Miss has lost three-straight games and just allowed Alabama to score 103 points on their home court. Auburn has the better offense and when they get going at home, you can forget it. Auburn seems to play to the level of their opponent but are currently escaping with wins at home. Ole Miss has been blown out plenty of times this season and this could be the game where Auburn plays a complete 40 minutes.
Key trends: Tigers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Early lean: Auburn, Under
Iowa vs. Michigan State 2/25/20 (-7.5, 153)
Michigan State has lost three of their last five games after starting the season's as the nation's best. Iowa has won three of their last four games but have struggled on the road, just like every Big Ten team. The Spartans have played tremendous defense all season and if Michigan State can figure out a way to stop Iowa's offense, the Spartans should easily come away with the victory. Michigan State is 7-2 in their last nine home games against the spread
Key trends: Hawkeyes are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Early lean: Michigan State, Under
Kansas State vs. Baylor 2/25/20 (-15, 124.5)
Baylor's winning streak came to a close after a hard fought loss to Kansas in an epic Big-12 showdown. Baylor absolutely proved that they belonged near the top with Kansas. Plenty of thoughts might run through your mind. Will Baylor drop this game as a result of losing to Kansas? The answer is no. Kansas State is 9-18 on the year and have currently lost seven straight games. Kansas State doesn't have much offense but Baylor hasn't responded well after a loss dating back to last season. This team is different and should show out following the loss to Kansas.
Key trends: Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Early lean: Baylor, Under
Colorado State vs. San Diego State 2/25/20 (-14, 139)
Everyone's favorite 11pm EST game on a Tuesday! San Diego State took their first loss of the season at home against UNLV as the Aztecs crawled back into things a little too late. Colorado State is no pushover either. They're looking for their 20th win of the season against San Diego State. The hype might have gotten to San Diego State just a little bit. The road team has 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine meetings against each other. What San Diego did was very impressive but the downfall is coming. Back to reality for San Diego State. They'll be a three seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Key trends: Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Early lean: Colorado State, Over
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