Free College Basketball Picks Wednesday 3/4/2020 and Opening Line Report
We're getting down to the final games of the regular season where every game counts towards seeding in the conference tournament and NCAA Tournament. The Big East has a very nice showcase of games, including Villanova visiting Seton Hall. Villanova will look to cut the standings deficit in half with two games remaining. Dayton will also look to keep their A-10 undefeated streak alive but could be caught in a trap on the road against Rhode Island. Here are the early leans for March 4.
Texas A&M vs. Auburn 3/4/20 (-12.5, 132.5)
Auburn lost on the road to Kentucky and can't win the SEC Regular-Season. However, they'll move their focus to the SEC Tournament and look for the best seeding possible as they welcome Texas A&M to Auburn Arena. Texas A&M have lost two straight games on the road against LSU and at home to Kentucky. The Aggies are taking losses to the top of the SEC and Auburn is another one. The Tigers are 16-0 straight up at home this season and shouldn't have a problem with Texas A&M who are averaging 62.1 points per game. Auburn's offense is deadly at home.
Key trends: Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Early lean: Auburn, Over
TCU vs. Kansas 3/4/20 (-16, 129)
Udoka Azubuike is listed as questionable for Kansas with an ankle injury. Kansas will be careful with the big man as he's been dominant in conference play. No team can guard Udoka, and they'll need him in the Big 12 tournament. TCU is coming off an upset win over Baylor at home, 75-72 and will look to ride the momentum into Kansas. Kansas is averaging almost 75 points per game this season while allowing just 60.5 points per game on the defensive end. Kansas will outscore TCU and hold them to a low percentage from the field. Take Kansas all day.
Key trends: Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Early lean: Kansas, Over
Georgetown vs. Creighton 3/4/20 (-12, 152.5)
Georgetown already beat Creighton once this season. The Bluejays struggled from the field in their loss to St. John's on the road but coming home could do the Bluejays wonders. Georgetown has lost four straight games and have allowed an average of 83.5 points per game in their last two road games. Expect Creighton's offense to get back to their old ways and knock down shots consistently. This offense is scoring almost 78 points per game and had one bad afternoon.
Key trends: Bluejays are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Early lean: Creighton, Over
Villanova vs. Seton Hall 3/4/20 (-4, 140.5)
This is the Big East game we've been waiting for. This is a crucial matchup for both ranked opponents as Villanova is two games out of first place. Seton Hall is the first-place team. Villanova just took a loss to Providence at home and will look to get back to their winning ways against a Seton Hall team that has won three straight games in the Big East. Villanova is one of the best offenses in the nation, but they'll take on a defense in Seton Hall that has done a great job limiting points per 100 possessions. Look for a defensive showdown in this one. Seton Hall usually shows up in these big games. I'll take my chances with a Seton Hall defense and a couple big buckets from senior guard Myles Powell. It's senior night after all.
Key trends: Pirates are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Early lean: Seton Hall, Under
Dayton vs. Rhode Island 3/4/20 (+4, 146)
Dayton is now ranked as the third best team in the nation. It's well deserved as the Flyers have gone 16-0 in conference play thus far. Rhode Island is coming off an ugly performance against St. Louis at home where they couldn't get anything going offensively. Dayton is one of the top offenses in the nation, averaging 80 points per game. If Rhode Island is going to start this game struggling from the field, Dayton should pull away pretty quickly. Take Dayton on the road in this one.
Key trends: Rams are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
Early lean: Dayton, Over
Florida State vs. Notre Dame 3/4/20 (+2, 147)
The ACC regular-season standings are intriguing to say the least. If Florida State wins out, they'll be the regular-season champs. On the road, against Notre Dame, it could be tricky for Florida State. FSU just lost to Clemson on the road, 70-69 while Notre Dame has won their last two home games against Miami and North Carolina. The Fighting Irish have been good against the spread at home recently, but Florida State continues to show up against better opponents. I'll give Florida State the edge. I don't think this team loses two straight heartbreakers as they look for the ACC regular-season championship.
Key trends: Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Early lean: Florida State, Over
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Virginia vs. Miami 3/4/20 (+2, 119)
Virginia's defense has proved a couple things recently. First, no team can score on them. Duke, a team that averages around 80 points per game, scored just 50 points against Virginia. The other thing they proved is that Virginia can win any game due to their defense. They'll be in games, stay in games, and potentially win games. That's all you can ask from a team that has trouble scoring. Miami has dropped two straight, but both of those games were on the road. Miami averages 72.5 points per game but allows 74.6 points per game. Virginia might be able to score 60 points in this one. Take Virginia as their offense does the unthinkable!
Key trends: Cavaliers are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.
Early lean: Virginia, Over
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin 3/4/20 (-13.5, 131.5)
Wisconsin will be huge favorites in this game, and that's completely fine. The Badgers have won six straight games and are finding their rhythm mainly on the defensive end. Northwestern has had trouble scoring all season, averaging 65.3 points per game and allowing 70.2 points per game. Wisconsin already defeated Nebraska on the road, 81-64. This game will be much similar. Take Wisconsin in this one.
Key trends: Badgers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Early lean: Wisconsin, Over
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