Free NBA Picks Wednesday 3/11/2020 and Opening Line Report
Wednesday's NBA slate features plenty of exciting basketball. The 76ers and Heat will look to protect home-court advantage against lower tier Eastern Conference teams, while the Jazz and Thunder duel it out in the middle of the West Standings. The Pelicans and Kings will also square off as both teams are tied at 28-36 each. We'll also get the Mavericks welcoming the Nuggets to Dallas, where they'll look to turn things around after two straight losses. Here are the early leans for March 11's action.
Pistons vs. 76ers 3/11/20 (-11.5, 216.5)
The 76ers are depleted, but they're still coming home to face a Pistons team that has just 20 wins on the season while also trading their best player in Drummond. The Pistons are 1-9 in their last 10 games straight up and have lost four straight games. The 76ers played four straight road games and will finally get back home where they've absolutely destroyed, going 28-2 outright. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are out but Tobias Harris and co. will be absolutely fine. It's still a double-digit spread for a reason. The Sixers are impossible to beat at home, and it won't be the Pistons to get the job done in Philly.
Key trends: 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Early lean: 76ers, Under
Knicks vs. Hawks 3/11/20 (-4.5, 231)
These teams like to score points lately. The Knicks have dropped three of their last four games after a road loss to the Wizards. The Knicks couldn't keep up or outscore the Wizards, and that can be exactly what happens in this game against the Hawks. Atlanta is coming off a double overtime win over the Hornets at home after scoring 143 points. The Hawks lost their last three games before that win. They're much more comfortable at home. Look for the Hawks to pull away from the Knicks in the second half. The Knicks don't play well in back-to-backs.
Key trends: Knicks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days' rest.
Early lean: Hawks, Over
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Hornets vs. Heat 3/11/20 (-10.5, 211.5)
Just like the Sixers, the Heat are incredibly difficult to solve at home. The Hornets have lost four of their last five games straight up. Charlotte has played solid defense here and there before that Hawks match-up. At home, Miami is 27-4 on the season and they're not going to drop a home game to a non-playoff contender like the Hornets. Miami has won four of their last five games and were even able to hold a high-volume Wizards team to just 89 points on the road.
Key trends: Heat are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 home games.
Early lean: Heat, Under
Jazz vs. Thunder 3/11/20 (-1.5, 228)
Believe it or not, but the Jazz have been fantastic on the road this season. Utah is 20-13 in other buildings this year as they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder that could be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has a bad hip. He should be available, but I wouldn't bet anything until you make sure he's playing. Utah is coming off a home loss to the Raptors but had won four straight games previously on the road. The Thunder went 3-0 on their road trip against Detroit, New York, and Boston. Both teams seem to have found a rhythm. I'll take the home team in the Thunder.
Key trends: Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Early lean: Thunder, Over
Nuggets vs. Mavericks 3/11/20 (-1, 220)
Luka Doncic has put up back-to-back solid performances, but Kristaps Porzingis hasn't and the Mavericks have lost their last two games to the Pacers and Spurs. Denver played a Milwaukee team at home that was without Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe, and Middleton. It's hard to assess that Nuggets game but what I can tell you is that the Nuggets have been trading wins for losses as of late and the Mavericks play much better at home this season. As long as the Mavs win the rebounding battle, as they should, they'll get this win at home. The Nuggets aren't the same away from home.
Key trends: Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Early lean: Mavericks, Under
Pelicans vs. Kings 3/11/20 (+1.5, 235)
Two playoff hopefuls will duel it out in Sacramento. Both teams have 28 wins on the season while both teams have 36 losses on the season. It's all tied up between these two teams. The Pelicans ended a long winning drought with back-to-back wins over the Heat and Timberwolves, while the Kings have dropped two of their last three games. Those two losses were against Toronto and Philadelphia at home. The Kings have played four of their last five games at home and went 2-2 in those home games. If the Pelicans can play their brand of basketball, get a faster pace going and force the Kings into taking bad shots, the Pelicans will win this game as small favorites on the road.
Key trends: Pelicans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.
Early lean: Pelicans, Over
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