College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Oct. 10-11
With all the teams in college and pro football starting to have a track record of games for which we can start formulating stronger opinions, we can hopefully better understand various line moves that occur.
Having reviewed the entire football board, I have uncovered three college and three pro football contests that have seen significant line moves. The intent is to explain what has happened, why if possible, and what might be the right direction for making football picks. Let’s get rolling!
CFB – (321) TENNESSEE at (322) GEORGIA 3:30 ET CBS
It was a bit of an odd release by sportsbooks for college football odds making Georgia a -14.5 point favorite, as that seems to invite taking Tennessee with the hook on a key number. Either somebody took the bait, or enough bettors just liked the Vols anyways, as Tennessee is now down to +12.5. Much like last week’s Auburn/Georgia battle, this should have an old school feel as both teams are run-first offenses. My initial thought was the Bulldogs, but with the weather and the Volunteers 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine regular-season contests, choosing Tennessee.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Georgia
Doug’s Take – Tennessee covers
CFB – (335) KANSAS STATE at (336) TCU 4:00 ET FOX
It is not socially acceptable these days for college football picks to even consider an “Under” bet on a Big 12 pigskin clash. Yet here we are; the Wildcats and Horned Frogs totals tilt has plummeted from 54.5 to 50.5. Part of this might be the availability of Kansas State quarterback Skyler Thompson, who was hurt last week and thought to be a game-time decision. (Upgraded to probable) Also, these are two clubs that like to possess the ball and eat up the clock. But as they used to say on ESPN: “C’mon Man!”, this is the Big 12 and I'm taking the Over with TCU 17-8 Over at home after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Take Over
CFB – (357) MARSHALL at (358) WESTERN KENTUCKY 7:30 ET FSN Affiliates
With Marshall 2-0 and having beaten a solid Appalachian State club, 17-7, three weeks ago, the Thundering Herd stampeded from -4 to -7 point road favorites. Western Kentucky is 1-2 and winless against the spread at 0-3, having barely survived versus a mediocre Middle Tennessee bunch, 20-17, while handing out seven points. These teams are 3-3 SU the last six years, with the Herd capturing the last three. However, Western Kentucky is on a 6-0 ATS run in this series, and they will have the confidence to play Marshall close. Being able to catch +7 on such a key number is quite important, as anything else could be risky. For this one, I’m supporting history and the right number.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Marshall
Doug’s Take – Western Kentucky covers
NFL – (465) PHILADELPHIA at (466) PITTSBURGH 1:00 ET FOX
In this Keystone State clash, the total has collapsed two points to 44.5. The thinking for NFL picks is that Philadelphia’s offensive line is in tatters. And while Carson Wentz played better last week, he still has tossed seven interceptions and will face heavy pressure from a talented Pittsburgh defense. The Eagles defense the last few years survives more than thrives. Don’t be surprised if the Steelers end up kicking more field goals than scoring touchdowns because of this. With Pitt 12-4 Under after scoring 25 points or more in three consecutive outings, I and Keith Stone of Keystone Light beer commercials of years ago agree, take the Under.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Pittsburgh covers
NFL – (473) INDIANAPOLIS at (474) CLEVELAND 4:25 ET CBS
A truly fascinating AFC affair with two squads who might be going places later in the season. Both teams have reeled off three wins in a row and are playing excellent football. Indianapolis is No. 1 in fewest points allowed, with Cleveland 4th in points scored. Football bettors are more impressed by the offense and the fact the game is at Baker Mayfield’s residence (think commercials), and the Browns have slid from +2.5 to +1 or even a Pick at some books. Both quarterbacks have issues of concern. I'll side with the better defensive team which is the Colts.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Cleveland
Doug’s Take – Indianapolis covers
NFL – (475) MINNESOTA at (476) SEATTLE 8:20 ET NBC
Though Seattle is unbeaten, those working the NFL odds did not like the Seahawks at -9 against 1-3 Minnesota and lowered the birds to -7. You don’t have to watch “48 Hours” or “Dateline” to figure out why this happened with Peter Carroll’s defense the worst in yards allowed in the NFL. Minnesota ended their three-game losing streak at Houston, and a big reason was no turnovers for the first time in four tries. While there is sharp money on the Vikings, I’m looking at the Minny defense that is 29th, 1-6 SU and ATS in Coffee Town and still has Kirk Cousins under center. Russell Wilson makes plays and Cousins ends up making miscues.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Seattle
Doug’s Take – Seattle covers
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has -21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 86 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 24 Handicapper of the Month Awards. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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