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2022-23 Dallas Mavericks Predictions and Futures Odds Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/4/2022

Dallas Mavericks predictions Luka Doncic

The Dallas Mavericks have moved on nicely from the Dirk Nowitzki era by making the Western Conference Finals last season for the first time since they won the championship in 2011. Led by MVP favorite Luka Doncic, the Mavericks appear poised to repeat that success, with their eyes set one step further, on the NBA crown.

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Offseason Recap

The Mavericks had an effective offseason, making the signings they required to remain among the top of the Western Conference. They got the offseason flurry started by acquiring Christian Wood from the Rockets in exchange for their first-round pick and a few benchwarmers. Wood is a six-foot-eight center and will go a long way in replacing the output of the departed Kristaps Porzingis.

After a rocky start to his NBA career, Wood set career highs in rebounds, assists, and games played last year with the Rockets, and the Mavericks season relies on a smooth arrival into the squad. Additionally, the Mavericks signed JaVale McGee from the Phoenix Suns. McGee brings playoff and championship experience with him to Mavericks. And while he is not an all-star center, he will provide leadership to this young Mavericks squad.

Notably departing the Mavericks is the electric Jalen Brunson. After the Knicks offered him a whopping $104 million contract that the Mavericks refused to match, they are left with a gaping hole in their backcourt. This departure will certainly be felt in Dallas through the season, and replacing his 16.4 PPG will not be easy.

Season Expectations

The expectations are high in Dallas after their shock Conference Finals appearance in 2022. And with Doncic on the team, the sky is the limit. After a 4th place, 52-win season last time around, the Mavericks will be aiming to match that success this year. On paper, the team is worse. Losing Brunson in exchange for Wood and McGee gives them some much needed depth. However, in order to have sustained success in the NBA, there needs to be a clear ‘Big Two” or “Big Three’ on the team. While the Mavericks have an MVP candidate with Doncic, they lack the second half of the equation and will likely be out of the contest on any Doncic off night. Spencer Dinwiddie provided some glimpses to what Doncic can do with some help, but he has not done enough to be considered a star.

With a win total of 48.5 wins, Dallas will be looking at a 6th or 7th place finish, leaving them on the cusp of the play-in tournament. For the upcoming regular season, avoiding the play-in tournament must be the goal, and anything else will be considered a failure for the organization.

Schedule Breakdown

The Mavericks have a rather unique schedule. After visiting Phoenix on opening night, 11 of their next 15 games are at home. This plays into the Mavericks favor since the surgery their squad underwent in the offseason will require time to gel, and a lengthy homestand is the perfect place to do it. Unfortunately for the Mavs, this means they have some nasty road trips later in the season, including 5 games in 8 nights in January, and 10 road games in their final 16 contests to finish off the season. This fluctuation in the schedule, coupled with the nature of the Mavericks squad, may result in long winning and losing streaks. It will be important for the Mavericks to get off to a quick start if they are to find success this year.

Dallas Mavericks Odds

The Mavericks are expected to make the playoffs as a mid-seed team, possibly win a round, and bow out. In the regular season, Dallas is +1000 to be the No. 1 western conference seed, +125 to win the division, featuring the Grizzlies and the Pelicans, and a juice-filled -550 to make the playoffs. I think these odds are fair, but I would personally advise to stay away from any of these props. A one man show like Doncic is unlikely to be able to consistently lead the team throughout a lengthy 82-game season, and I would look to the playoffs for value.

At +2000 to win the championship, there is solid value if you think Doncic has the capacity to carry them to a chip. And at +1000 to win the Western Conference, that is the bet to make if he falls one step short. As Doncic showed in the Mavericks matchup with the Suns last season, he has the ability to put the team on his back and beat any unit in The Association. Of course, any +1000 or +2000 prop comes with risk, but there is certainly value in betting on the Mavs to make another deep playoff run. The playoffs are where the stars shine. And if Doncic and one of his role players gets hot, we could see a repeat of last season with the Mavericks making waves in the West.

2022-2023 Season Predictions

The Mavericks, on paper, look as though they have the pieces required to compete against the best of the league, but I do not agree. They have the MVP-caliber player covered with Doncic, but are missing the second or third star. In order to be successful in the NBA, teams need to have a more balanced attack, and I don’t feel the Mavericks have that. I foresee the Mavericks falling slightly short of their 48.5 win total, and they will be in the play-in tournament with a 45-37 record. There will certainly be games Doncic is able to steal, but he will not be able to do it alone consistently. In the postseason, I predict the Mavericks glide through the play-in, win a round thanks to a few hot shooting nights from Dinwiddie, then head back to the drawing board for the following campaign. This is a good Mavericks team thanks to a fantastic Doncic, solid role players such as Wood, Dinwiddie and Tim Hardaway Jr, but weak depth and a shallow bench will see them falling just short of expectations. 

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