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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/16/2022

by Spencer Toth - 11/16/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Darius Garland Cleveland Cavaliers

Throughout the 2022-23 NBA season, I will be breaking down the Milwaukee Bucks weekday games and giving my best bets for the contest. By using in-depth knowledge on the Bucks, and the entire NBA, we will be able to churn a profit throughout the season. While we may not make money every night, we will stay in the green long term.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

The Bucks perfect record has been broken, and they now sit 2nd in the East at 10-3. While losing three of their last four is worrying, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday missed time with injuries and forced the Bucks to lean on their remaining role players. Adding to the misery, Grayson Allen got a knock on his ankle on Monday night and will not be available. Going into Wednesday’s matchup with the Cavaliers, Antetokounmpo will be back, but Middleton and Wesley Matthews remain out, while Holiday and Pat Connaughton are questionable.

While the Bucks have been decimated with injuries, they have still been able to perform at the highest level thanks to ​​Antetokounmpo. As long as the ‘Greek Freak’ remains on the court, the Bucks can beat any team in the NBA. His dominance can compensate for below average role players. And with the help of Holiday, he has kept the Bucks atop the standings without Middleton.

Wednesday night, the Bucks welcome the Cavaliers to downtown Milwaukee, which will be an intriguing matchup. The Cavs have had a solid start to the season, posting an 8-5 record. In the offseason, they picked up Donovan Mitchell from the Jazz, and he has instantly gelled with the rest of the squad. A starting lineup of Mitchell, Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley is one of the deepest, and most talented, lineups in the league. The Cavs have the pieces needed to challenge for a title; it’s just a matter of if they can stay healthy and perform.

On Monday night, one man on the Cavs certainly performed, as Garland put up a career high 51 points in their loss to the Timberwolves. Garland may only be 6-foot-1, so he is often matched up against a taller guard, but his low center of gravity and quick feet have allowed him to become one of the most electric guards in the league. He shot an incredible 10/15 from 3-point range, but it was not enough to lead the Cavs to victory.

Unfortunately, the Cavs also have injury problems of their own. Mitchell and Allen both missed Monday’s game against the Timberwolves, and Allen remains out while Mitchell is questionable. Considering the nature of Mitchell’s injury, I expect him to remain out tonight. There is no reason for the Cavs to rush him back. And while a game against the Bucks is important, it’s not worth the long-term injury ramifications.

A key matchup in this contest will be who is on Garland. Garland has the ability to run an offense, and we saw what can happen if he heats up and takes more shots. Considering Allen and Mitchell may be out again, I once again expect Garland to step up and take a commanding role on this team. If the Bucks get Holiday back, there is doubt he can lock down the talented guard. However, without him, I’m not confident in Jevon Carter to have the same effect on the defensive end.

Despite the massive impact it has on the game, player props often remain steady, despite who the guarding defender may be. Garland’s points total sits at 20.5, and I expect him to surpass this prop if Holiday remains out. Take the over 20.5 if Holiday doesn’t suit up. And if he does, I’d stay away from this completely. Carter and the other guards simply lack the speed to guard Garland and will have their ankles taken from them if they stay tight to the Cavs star.

One bet to make if Holiday is in, is Milwaukee Bucks (-4). Antetokounmpo will be patrolling the paint with his big man, Brook Lopez, shutting down Allen, and Holiday will be on the outside, shutting down Garland. If the line shifts due to injury news, I’d still play the Bucks all the way up to (-5.5). I believe the Bucks have an edge in this matchup, not just due to the skill, but the way the players will be lining up against each other. The Bucks struggle against teams with multiple shooting big men, something the Cavs do not possess. Lopez and Antetokounmpo will be able to take care of business down low. And with only one star guard available for the Cavs, there are few holes in the Bucks defense.

The betting options remain scarce, as without a firm status on Holiday, it’s difficult to envision how this game will play out. The Bucks are getting a couple players back who were sorely missed during their mini-skid, and should be hungry to get back in the win column, and keep the competitors off the top of the standings.

(Holiday sits) Pick: Darius Garland Over 20.5 Points 3 Units

(Holiday plays) Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-4) 3 Units

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 2-0

Spread Record: 2-3

Total Record: 1-2

Player Props Record: 2-4

Total: 7-9

Down 1.9 Units ($190)

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